Pacers vs Cavaliers Game 2: Why the Over is the Smartest Play Tonight

2025 NBA Playoffs Picks For May 6, 2025

WagerTalk provides its Pacers vs Cavaliers Game 2 predictions for Tuesday, May 6 before tip off! Which team will come out on top heading into Game 3? Read below! WagerTalk offers the best NBA picks today every single day!

After an explosive start to the series, the Indiana Pacers secured a crucial road victory in Game 1 against the Cleveland Cavaliers, winning 121-112.

The game wasn’t just a statistical win—it delivered a strong message about Indiana’s offensive potential and Cleveland’s vulnerabilities.

With injuries still looming large over the Cavaliers, and both teams maintaining elite offensive metrics through the playoffs, Game 2 sets up as a prime opportunity for bettors and fans to target the Over.

Pacers vs Cavaliers Game 2 Game Details

Date: May 6, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET / 4:00 PM PT
Broadcast: TNT
Location: Wells Fargo Center in Cleveland, OH
Spread: Cavaliers -8.5 | Total: 230.5

Indiana’s Offensive Efficiency Takes Center Stage

Game 1 saw the Pacers execute with clinical precision. They led for the majority of the contest and ended the night shooting a scorching 53% from the field. Even more impressive?

Indiana mirrored that exact efficiency from beyond the arc, connecting on 53% of their three-point attempts. This wasn’t just one or two players catching fire—it was a balanced, team-wide performance.

Six Pacers scored in double figures, showing that Indiana’s offense isn’t dependent on one or two stars but thrives through unselfish play and depth.

This type of collective scoring effort suggests that Indiana can sustain high-scoring performances, even if their shooting percentage slightly regresses in Game 2.

Garland and Mobley: The Cavaliers’ Question Marks

Cleveland’s backcourt and frontcourt injuries continue to cloud their ceiling in this series. Darius Garland has been absent since Game 2 of the Cavaliers’ previous series against the Miami Heat, reportedly due to a lingering toe injury. As of today, his status is still in doubt, listed as questionable.

Equally significant is the status of Evan Mobley, another essential piece who’s also questionable tonight. Mobley’s potential absence looms large, particularly on the defensive end. Known as one of the premier defenders in the league, his limited availability or total absence could turn an already porous Cavaliers defense into a glaring liability.

Our power ratings—accounting for current form, injuries, and matchup data—give the slightest edge to Indiana. But the reality is that any side play in Game 2 is extremely contingent on the late-breaking injury news around Garland and Mobley. Without clarity, betting the side becomes speculative.

Targeting the Total: Why the Over Makes Sense

Rather than navigating the uncertainty of the injury report, bettors may find more value in targeting the game total. Based on how both teams have played offensively in the postseason, the Over stands out as the most data-supported play heading into Game 2.

Here’s why:

• Playoff Offensive Ratings: The Pacers and Cavaliers rank first and second, respectively, in offensive rating so far in the playoffs. Both teams have demonstrated that they can execute at a high level in half-court and transition scenarios.
• Pace of Play: Indiana and Cleveland also rank inside the top 10 in playoff pace—specifically, fourth and eighth, respectively. A faster tempo naturally leads to more shot attempts, more possessions, and ultimately more points on the board.
• Mobley’s Defensive Impact: If Mobley is limited or absent, Cleveland loses one of its best defensive anchors. That’s a critical consideration in forecasting a higher-scoring game, especially against a team like Indiana that thrives on quick ball movement and spacing.

Regression and Progression to the Mean

One important angle to consider is shooting variance. It’s unlikely Indiana will replicate their eye-popping 53% shooting from both the field and three-point range. Regression is to be expected. But even more significantly, positive shooting regression is on the horizon for Cleveland.

In Game 1, the Cavaliers made just 9 of 38 three-point attempts, their worst output from deep all season.

Given their offensive profile and shooters like Donovan Mitchell, Max Strus, and Caris LeVert, that level of inefficiency is unsustainable.

Expect the Cavs to shoot significantly better in Game 2—especially at home where role players often perform better.

That combination—Indiana slightly cooling off, Cleveland heating up—still favors a high-scoring game overall. One team regresses, the other progresses, but the scoring balance remains in favor of the Over.

Playoff Trends Favor the Over

Beyond the matchup-specific dynamics, there’s broader postseason data that supports this wager. Since the start of the 2023 postseason, Indiana and Cleveland have combined to go 25-15 to the Over in playoff games. That’s a 62.5% hit rate, suggesting a strong long-term trend toward high-scoring outcomes when these teams play in the postseason atmosphere.

This trend is especially notable when considering that playoff basketball generally trends Under due to slower pace and increased defensive intensity. These two teams break that mold—favoring tempo and offense even when the stakes are at their highest.

Expect Adjustments, But Offense to Prevail

Of course, Game 2 won’t be an exact replica of Game 1. Coaches will make adjustments. Defenses will be more focused. But the underlying styles of play, the offensive talent on both sides, and the pace of the series suggest that high scoring is more than just a Game 1 anomaly—it’s a series-wide theme.

Even if Indiana regresses to 45-47% shooting from deep, and Cleveland simply returns to its average three-point efficiency, we’re still looking at a total that flirts with or exceeds the 230-point mark.

That’s more than enough to justify confidence in the Over, especially if the line doesn’t inflate drastically before tip-off.

Key Takeaways Before Tip-Off

Trend to Know: A 25-15 record to the Over in postseason games since 2023 between these teams cannot be ignored.

Injury Watch: Keep a close eye on updates regarding Darius Garland and Evan Mobley. Their availability won’t just impact the spread—it may also influence the total slightly if Mobley is ruled out.

Betting Angle: Avoid the uncertainty of a side bet. The Over presents a higher-confidence opportunity based on data and game flow trends.

Pace + Offense: Both teams rank in the top 10 in pace and offensive rating in the playoffs—an ideal recipe for a high-scoring matchup.

Shooting Reversion: Indiana may cool off, but Cleveland is likely to bounce back from their worst shooting night of the season. Combined, it keeps the scoring level balanced and elevated.

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