UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds September 27, 2025

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for September 27, 2025 with the main event headlined by Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes in a light heavyweight fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from RAC Arena (AUS) in Perth, Australia!

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Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, September 27	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Carlos Ulberg -250 vs Dominick Reyes +200
Rounds:	2.5 (Over +120 / Under -155)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	RAC Arena (AUS) in Perth, Australia
TV:	ESPN+

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Undercard

Jonathan Micallef -136 vs Oban Elliott +106

Jonathan Micallef’s submission game is his biggest weapon, though his striking remains a weakness and his wrestling is serviceable but not elite.

Oban Elliott has solid overall skills and the better stand-up, but he tends to overthink in exchanges and scrambles, which leaves him a step behind.

That hesitation could open the door for Micallef to secure key takedowns and work toward his grappling advantage.

Elliott’s striking should keep things competitive, but the edge lies with Micallef’s ability to dictate with his ground game. Micallef is the pick.

Andre Petroski -146 vs Cam Rowston +110

Cam Rowston enters this fight off a recent Contender Series win where he showed noticeable improvement, particularly in his striking and ability to mix in a takedown.

He has good length with his punches and kicks, but he’s still developing as a fighter. Andre Petroski brings the edge in experience and grappling, though his striking is limited and his cardio has been questionable.

Expect him to lean heavily on his wrestling, pressing Rowston against the fence and grinding out control time on the mat. It may not be flashy, but Petroski’s path to victory is clear, and a decision win is the most likely outcome.

Brando Pericic -186 vs Elisha Ellison +144

This is a tough fight to get a confident read on. Brando Pericic has faced extremely weak competition, with his last two opponents having no professional experience.

He’s shown raw power as a striker but lacks technical polish. Elisha Ellison is in a very similar spot — untested against quality opponents and reliant on knockouts against overmatched competition.

What seems certain is that this fight won’t go the distance, but in terms of a side, it’s a complete toss up. This is a clear pass from a betting perspective.

Rolando Bedoya -113 vs Jamie Mullarkey -113

This is a low-level matchup where neither fighter is particularly reliable, but Mullarkey looks especially concerning at this stage.

He has no real upside, lacking both knockout power and strong wrestling, and he’s been finished in the first round of his last two fights.

Bedoya, while riding a three-fight skid himself, at least offers some positives with quicker movement, effective leg kicks, and better durability.

Mullarkey appears to be at the end of his UFC run, while Bedoya still has tools to compete at this level. Bedoya is the pick.

Michele Montague -236 vs Luana Carolina +176

Luana Carolina holds the advantage in striking, but it may not come into play here. Michele Montague is a relentless wrestler with dominant takedowns, heavy ground-and-pound, and dangerous submissions. Carolina’s best chance is to survive the early grappling exchanges, drag the fight out, and test Montague’s gas tank on the feet.

The problem is that Montague is so efficient at closing distance and getting fights to the mat that it’s hard to see Carolina keeping her standing for long. Montague’s wrestling and top control should carry her to a win.

Josias Musasa -162 vs Colby Thicknesse +124

Colby Thicknesse looked out of his depth in his UFC debut, where he was thoroughly outstruck, taken down in the third round, and failed to generate any real offense.

Prior to that, he had only faced low-level competition, and the step up in class exposed his limitations. Josias Musasa is still a bit raw, but he’s explosive, dangerous in the clinch, and brings athleticism and power to his striking, even if it can get wild at times.

While both fighters need development, Musasa clearly has the higher upside. I’ll side with the more promising prospect — Musasa is the pick.

Navajo Stirling -245 vs Rodolfo Bellato +186

Navajo Stirling has started his UFC career with wins, but the level of competition has been very low, and there are still major question marks about his game.

He’s physically strong, but his striking is slow, his clinch work and control are lacking, and it feels like he’s destined to struggle once he faces a decent opponent.

Rodolfo Bellato may be that test. While he has defensive flaws and leaves his chin open at times, he’s a solid striker who won’t allow Stirling to dictate in the clinch.

Stirling has the athletic tools to develop, but he’s not there yet. Bellato looks like a very live underdog and is the play.

Alexia Thainara -250 vs Loma Lookboonmee +190

Alexia Thainara made an impressive UFC debut, taking down Molly McCann and finishing her quickly by submission, though it’s worth noting McCann has clearly been on the decline.

Thainara will look to repeat that formula here, using her grappling to drag Loma Lookboonmee to the mat where she can control and hunt for a finish.

Loma, however, is a tricky striker who prefers to stay at range, land her kicks, and move in and out of danger.

She has the tools to frustrate opponents if she can keep the fight standing. While Thainara is the rightful favorite, the line feels wide, as Loma is unlikely to fold easily.

Tom Nolan -162 vs Charlie Campbell +126

Tom Nolan has put together three straight wins, but they haven’t been overly convincing. Once known as a wild, kill-or-be-killed fighter, he’s become more patient and defensively sound, though that shift has come at the cost of his knockout threat.

Charlie Campbell brings solid striking, toughness, and even showed competency on the ground in his last fight against Peek.

Given Nolan’s recent form, it’s hard to justify him as the favorite in this matchup. Campbell looks like the value side, and he’s the pick.

Jack Jenkins -330 vs Ramon Taveras +240

Jack Jenkins is a smart, well-rounded fighter with strong leg kicks, sharp striking, and excellent fight IQ. He’s coming off a loss to a high-level opponent, but this matchup plays directly into his strengths.

Ramon Taveras is a boxer who was outclassed by UFC veteran Davey Grant in his last fight, and his striking defense has consistently struggled when facing quality competition.

Jenkins’ leg kicks should be a major weapon early, chipping away at Taveras’ movement and slowing him down as the fight progresses.

With his striking advantages and superior game planning, Jenkins is in a great spot to get the win.

Jake Matthews -360 vs Neil Magny +285

Jake Matthews comes in on a three-fight winning streak and has looked much cleaner of late, but his career has often been marked by inconsistency and costly mistakes.

If he slips here, Neil Magny is exactly the type of veteran who can capitalize, using his experience and fight IQ to turn things around.

Magny’s recent losses have come against championship-level contenders, and Matthews isn’t quite in that class.

Matthews should have the wrestling edge, but Magny’s length, savvy, and ability to stay fresher late make this a tricky matchup. At these odds, Matthews is impossible to trust, and Magny to win a close decision is the pick.

Justin Tafa -125 vs Louis Sutherland +105

Justin Tafa looks like he’s on the decline, dropping two straight fights and showing little motivation to improve as he makes money outside the UFC.

His style is limited — he can’t wrestle and generally fights in a kill-or-be-killed manner. Louis Sutherland enters for his UFC debut with nothing to lose, and while known primarily as a power striker, he’s also shown flashes of wrestling and ground-and-pound.

That added dimension could be key against a fighter like Tafa who doesn’t have answers on the mat. Anytime there’s an opportunity to fade the Tafa brothers, it’s worth considering, and here Sutherland is the pick.

Jimmy Crute -200 vs Ivan Erslan +154

This looks like a setup fight for Jimmy Crute in front of his home crowd. After briefly retiring, Crute has returned with renewed energy and even scored a first-round win in his last outing.

While his cardio can still be a question mark, he’s a strong wrestler, a capable striker, and has the durability to push through tough spots.

Ivan Erslan, meanwhile, has struggled at this level, losing both of his UFC bouts while offering little striking threat and often fighting off his back foot. With the advantages across the board, Crute should dominate this matchup.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes

Dominick Reyes has returned from a long layoff with violence, scoring three straight knockouts, but the level of opposition matters.

His recent wins came against older fighters or those willing to take big risks, and Carlos Ulberg is neither. Ulberg has been one of the most reliable fighters to back over the past few years, combining sharp striking with improved patience and fight IQ in his last two outings.

Training alongside some of the best in the world, he’s continued to evolve and refine his game. As long as he avoids an early knockout shot from Reyes, Ulberg should put on a masterclass and get the win.

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