PFL Tampa | MMA Picks and Betting Odds August 22, 2026

PFL Tampa Betting Preview, Picks and Predictions

PFL Tampa takes place August 22, 2026 as MMA WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his expert picks and predictions before the bell rings! Cris Cyborg vs Ketlen Vieira headline the main event with the main card starting up at 9:00PM ET from the Bojangles Coliseum in Charlotte, NC!

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PFL Tampa Betting Information

Saturday, August 22	PFL Tampa (Courtesy of Caesars)
Main Event:	Cris Cyborg vs Ketlen Vieira
Rounds:	N/A
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT
Arena:	Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
TV:	ESPN

PFL Tampa Predictions

Gadzhi Rabadanov (-3500) vs. Tracy Reeder (+950)

Tracy Reeder is jumping into this fight on short notice, and he’s simply nowhere near GadzhRabadanov’s level. This is an enormous step up in competition against one of the best fighters in the PFL.

Rabadanov should be able to dictate where this fight takes place and essentially do whatever he wants. The one thing I wouldn’t automatically do is bet the under because Reeder can survive and hang around on the ground, which could allow him to extend the fight longer than expected.

At -3500, there is obviously no reason to bet Rabadanov straight. This is mostly a pass, although if you want to throw a tiny bet on a nearly 10-1 underdog in the PFL, stranger things have happened.

Luke Trainer (-350) vs. Roland Dunlap (+275)

Roland Dunlap isn’t a bad fighter; he’s just extremely untested. He’s big and strong, throws good body kicks and has been able to physically overwhelm the lower-level competition he’s faced. I’ve seen him successfully wrestle opponents, but I’ve also seen those takedown attempts fail, and that’s going to become a major problem against Luke Trainer.

Trainer looks like a future champion to me. He’s incredibly strong in close, and his wrestling and ground game should be on an entirely different level from what Dunlap has experienced.

Trainer’s center of gravity, physical control and ability to dominate positions are going to be a shock for someone who has spent the first seven fights of his career facing questionable competition.

Dunlap has some interesting tools, but this is too big of a jump. Trainer is the pick.

Daniel Marcos (-180) vs. Magomed Magomedov (+150)

I’d like to think Daniel Marcos is motivated after leaving the UFC and wants to immediately make a statement in the PFL. He’s 18-1, has good striking and is capable of holding his own on the ground.

The biggest criticism of Marcos has been that some of his wins aren’t particularly exciting, but from a betting perspective, I don’t care how entertaining he is. I want the guy who consistently wins fights.

Magomed Magomedov has 27 professional fights and is now 34 years old, and I think we’re beginning to see some decline. He suffered a surprising knockout loss two fights ago and then didn’t look particularly sharp against Higo. He gave up control time and wasn’t crisp enough on the feet.

I expect Magomedov to eventually look for takedowns and try to turn this into a wrestling match, but I think he’ll quickly realize how talented Marcos is. Marcos at -180 is the pick.

Marcirley Alves (-200) vs. Nkosi Ndebele (+160)

Marcirley Alves is coming off a loss, but it came against a very good fighter from RIZIN, so I’m not holding that result against him too much. Alves has good striking, although he can become flat-footed and his volume isn’t always where I’d like it to be.

Nkosi Ndebele should be the longer fighter and have the reach advantage. He’s coming into this on relatively short notice, and I’m still not completely sold on what we’re getting from some of these fighters coming through PFL Africa. That said, Ndebele earned a split-decision victory over Brandon Davis in his PFL debut and has shown the ability to mix in takedowns.

Ndebele needs to be aggressive and use his length rather than allowing Alves to dictate the pace. I don’t have a strong enough edge on either side at these prices. The best bet in this matchup is for the fight to go the distance.

UPSET ALERT: Movsar Ibragimov (+240) vs Javid Basharat

Javid Basharat is coming over from the UFC, and this is exactly the type of situation where I wonder about a fighter’s mentality. Does he enter the PFL motivated to prove the UFC made a mistake, or does he come in disappointed, overconfident and expecting to beat fighters he believes are beneath him?

Basharat lost two straight before beating a weak Gianni Vazquez, and the UFC ultimately decided to move on from him. He’s more of a point fighter than a violent finisher on the feet. His ground game is good, but he didn’t record a finish during his UFC run.

Movsar Ibragimov brings a completely different mentality. He’s looking to end fights, and all eight of his victories have come by finish through either strikes or submissions. Basharat has also shown that he can be hurt, including being knocked out two fights ago.

There aren’t many underdogs I like on this card, but this is one that caught my attention. At this price, I don’t think Basharat deserves to be treated as untouchable. Upset alert: Ibragimov +240 is the play.

PFL Tampa Main Event: Cris Cyborg (-350) vs. Ketlen Vieira (+280)

This is expected to be Cris Cyborg’s retirement fight from MMA, although I would expect her to continue competing in boxing. It certainly feels like a matchup designed to give Cyborg an opportunity to end her MMA career with a victory.

Cyborg is by far the better striker in this matchup. Even at this stage of her career, she still has the power, volume and cardio to overwhelm opponents on the feet.

Vieira has had success with her wrestling throughout her UFC career, but she appears to be slowing down, and I have a hard time believing she can consistently take Cyborg down and control her.

Unless Cyborg suddenly looks completely different in her final MMA appearance, this is her fight to lose. All signs point toward a Cyborg victory.

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