Red Sox vs Rays Prediction and Betting Preview | June 11
Hitting conditions should be favorable at Fenway Park for tonight’s Red Sox vs Rays contest, and we’ve got two shaky starting pitchers on the mound. The GoldSheet team offers its thoughts on tonight’s AL East showdown in Beantown.
Red Sox vs Rays Betting Preview
| Time | 7:10pm ET / 4:10pm PT |
| Stadium | Fenway Park in Boston |
| Weather | Warm and Clear with a Light Breeze Blowing Out to Right-Center |
| MoneyLine | Boston -115 / Tampa -105 |
| Total | 9.5 Runs (o -120 / u EV) |
| RunLine | Boston -1.5 (+170) / Tampa +1.5 (-195) |
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa’s Zack Littell has pitched better recently, but his approach on the mound is worrisome at a place like Fenway on a warm night.
Littell enters Wednesday in the 98th percentile among pitchers in walk rate this season, and he’s only walked a total of one batter in his last four starts. That’s great. But that also means he’s throwing a lot of pitches over the plate.
Littell has given up 16 home runs in his last 11 starts, and his hard-hit rate has jumped from 39.2-percent last year to 42.3-percent this year. His 11.9-percent barrel rate is in the bottom-10th percentile among pitchers this season.
Boston Red Sox
…Speaking of giving up hard contact, Walker Buehler is in the same boat. Buehler has given up five runs in back-to-back starts against the Braves and Yankees. Buehler enters Wednesday in the bottom-20th percentile among pitchers in expected ERA, expected batting average allowed, whiff rate and barrel rate. He’s given up four home runs in his last 7.2 innings.
Lead-off hitter Jarren Duran is currently riding an eight-game hitting streak and can cause havoc at the top of the lineup with his speed. Duran is hitting .311 with a .372 on-base percentage at home this season.
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction
The top of Boston’s lineup has performed well against Littell in the past with Rafael Devers and Duran going a combined 7-for-22 (.318) with three doubles, two home runs and two walks.
Boston’s last six games have seen an average of 15.3 runs per game. Wednesday will be Tampa’s ninth-straight day with a game, and a stretch like that will take a lot out of the bullpen. Five relievers combined to throw 109 pitches on Monday.
OVER 9.5 RUNS (-120)
JARREN DURAN OVER 2.5 RUNS + HITS + RBI (-105)
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