Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Preview
Recent winners of the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club have finished in the mid-20s under par. Will we see another birdie fest this week? Join WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang as we break down this week’s PGA Tour field with recommended wagers and DFS lineups.
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| 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | July 28-31, 2022 |
| Where: | Detroit Golf Club in Detroit, Michigan |
| Defending Champ: | Cam Davis |
| Current Favorite(s): | Patrick Cantlay +800 at DraftKings |
| TV: | Golf Channel on Thursday and Friday; CBS on Saturday and Sunday |
3M Open Recap
Tony Finau roared back to win the 3M Open last week, although maybe the better way to describe it is that he was the beneficiary of an ugly collapse by Scott Piercy who entered the final round sitting on a four-shot lead. None-the-less, it was a fantastic putting performance by Finau, which as most golf bettors know, has been something we rarely see from Tony.
The one consistent that did hold true is once again, the top-10 Strokes Gained chart we always start the article with, produced another winner as Finau ranked No. 2 heading into the tournament at +1.30 per round. A cool 65% (19-of-29) of winners this year (excluding the alternate field events) have been ranked inside the top-10 Strokes Gained over the last six months, so as always, why would we start anywhere else…
Rocket Mortgage Classic Odds Board
[OWGR] Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds)
[#13] Will Zalatoris +2.00 (+1600) Bet365
[#4] Patrick Cantlay +1.99 (+1100) Bet365
[#19] Cameron Young +1.68 (+2000) Bet365
[#20] Max Homa +1.65 (+2500) Bet365
[#16] Tony Finau +1.56 (+1600) Bet365
[#46] Keegan Bradley +1.41 (+4000) Bet365
[#57] Chris Kirk +1.21 (+6000) Bet365
[#237] Taylor Pendrith +1.18 (+8000) Bet365
[#87] Denny McCarthy +1.08 (+4200) FanDuel
[#56] Russell Henley +1.05 (+3500) Bet365/DK
Notables
[#77] Davis Riley +0.88 (+4000) DK (+1.61, #7 L3 Months)
[#71] Cam Davis +0.75 (+3500) DK (+1.02, #13 L3 Months)
The Rocket Mortgage Classic Course & Field
This week’s field is a little stronger than last week with five of the world’s top-20 in the field, headlined by world No. 4 Patrick Cantlay. Still, the field is weak overall and drops off sharply in terms of world rankings after those guys.
Detroit Golf Club is a Donald Ross design stock par-72 that plays a little over 7,300 yards. It features wide fairways and very playable rough which should keep those that are a little wayward off the tee in contention. In fact, guys that bomb it and can put wedge in their hand, regardless of staying in the fairway, may have the best advantage this week.
Water also doesn’t come into play off the tee like we saw last week. However, the short (three-year) history here has proven that you don’t have to be a long hitter to contend either.
Previous winners of this event include Nate Lashley (-25), Bryson DeChambeau (-23) and Cam Davis (-18) so players know they are going to have to go low to win. It’s also worth noting that two of those were first-time winners on the PGA Tour.
One angle to pay close attention to this week is leaderboard betting as guys are still jockeying for position to get inside the top-125 to qualify for the FedEx Cup Playoffs in two weeks’ time. Basically, every shot will matter for guys ranking around No. 70 or worse to not only make it in the playoffs, but perhaps qualify for the BMW or Tour Championship.
Nick’s Betting Favorites
From Nick Borrman: When looking at the outright market this week, there is very little reason to venture outside the top-10 Strokes Gained, especially in a very top-heavy field.
Cam Young +2000 (Bet365) | Top-10 +125 (Bet365/DK)
Probably my favorite uutright play this week, there is a lot of reasons to like the rookie in Detroit. He is still searching for that first PGA Tour win, but he has four seconds and two third place finishes this season as he stands at No. 13 in the FedExCup.
He is the definition of a bomber this week, ranking No. 7 in distance averaging over 317 yards off the tee as he settles in at No. 2 in Strokes Gained off the tee behind only Jon Rahm. Add in that he ranks No. 30 in proximity to the hole and that explains his No. 9 ranking in birdie average this season.
After a crazy T3-T2-T3 stretch at the RBC Heritage, Wells Fargo Championship and PGA Championship, Young cooled to a T60 at the Memorial before missing the cut at both the US Open and the Scottish Open. However, he finished solo second at the Open Championship in his last start which may be a sign of another run coming.
Patrick Cantlay (-140) over Tony Finau
This one’s simple: There is zero chance Finau putts as well as he did last week as he still only ranks No. 142 in Strokes Gained putting. He also led the field in scrambling last week which are just two reasons to think he only has one direction to go this week and that’s backwards.
Cantlay on the other hand seems like the person most likely to win this week, at least when just looking at form coming in. He won the Zurich Classic partner event with Xander Schauffele in April, and we know what Xander has done since then, winning twice. Cantlay did miss the cut in his next start at the PGA Championship, but has gone T3, T14, T13, T4 and T8 in five starts since and he has been known to ride a heater better than anyone.
BEST BET | Chesson Hadley Top-40 (+190 at DraftKings)
Hadley has missed 12 cuts in 26 starts this year including a run of eight straight missed cuts from November thru February. But he is finding his form at the right time as he is now on a run of six straight cuts made including three top-10 finishes in his last five starts at the Travelers, John Deere Classic and again last week at the 3M Open.
He is one of those guys I described at the beginning of this article, in need of points, as he currently sits No. 130 in the FedExCup. One more strong finish from Hadley should likely catapult him into the Playoffs. So long as his ball striking stays up, he should be able to capitalize as he ranks No. 21 in Strokes Gained putting this season.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic at the Detroit Golf Club? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | Rocket Mortgage Classic Preview
This week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic field includes top-20 players like Will Zalatoris, Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Young, Max Homa and Tony Finau. Join Nick Borrman and Andy Lang for Tee Time from Vegas as we break down the event with featured head-to-head matchups and DFS recommendations.
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