Genesis Invitational Predictions and Odds Feb 17-20
Genesis Invitational Betting Preview
WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang offer their thoughts on this week’s Genesis Invitational from Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles. Can this week’s action top the excitement of last week’s Waste Management Open from TPC Scottdale? Nick and Andy discuss the guys at the top of the odds board, some potential longshots that could crack the Genesis Invitational leaderboard and some intriguing head-to-head matchups.
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| Genesis Invitational | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | February 17-20 |
| Where: | Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles |
| Defending Champ: | Max Homa |
| Current Favorite: | Jon Rahm (+800 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Golf Channel on Thursday and Friday; CBS on Saturday and Sunday |
Genesis Invitational Odds Board
Make it 6-for-6 winners in 2022 that have either been ranked inside the top-10 Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green or Approach over the last six months as Scheffler won his first PGA Tour event, ranking No. 9 in the field in SG Tee-to-Green. It’s also worth noting Scheffler has made it three straight first-time winners on the Tour.
Top-10 Strokes Gained Tee to Green over the last six months (betting odds via DraftKings)
Justin Thomas +2.04 (+1400)
Sungjae Im +1.86 (+4000)
Jon Rahm +1.73 (+800)
Patrick Cantlay +1.69 (+1000)
Luke List +1.63 (+8000)
Will Zalatoris +1.58 (+2800)
Xander Schauffele +1.45 (+2200)
Cameron Smith +1.45 (+2200)
Rory McIlroy +1.38 (+2000)
Russell Henley +1.45 (+4000)
The Genesis Invitational Course & Field
From Nick Borrman: It is safe to say Riviera will be the highest winning score of any event in 2022 as this is easily the toughest track that the Tour has played for four days so far this this. I say four days as Torrey Pine South is arguably as difficult, if not more than Riviera but the winning score has the benefit of one day on the North course. Last year’s winning score came in at -12, with 4th place already falling below double-digits at -9.
Last year, of the 51 courses on the PGA Tour season, Riviera ranked inside the five-toughest in several major categories including fairways hit, greens in regulation, average proximity to the hole and a couple different putting stats. Riviera is a classic design where placement off the tee is crucial and missing fairways can be a death sentence. The rough is not long by any means, but the greens are so well designed that if you are hitting your approach from the wrong spot, you will find it very difficult to get the ball anywhere near the hole.
Last week had the best field of the year so far, and the tournament delivered with a fantastic finish with so many big names in contention. This week is poised to be even better with each of the Top-11 players in the world teeing it up to fight for the biggest prize pool of the year, $12M dollars with the winner receiving north of $2M.
Nick’s Genesis Invitational Picks
Once again, the top-10 Strokes Gained data provided another winner with Scheffler, so we would be a fool to look elsewhere.
Patrick Cantlay +1000 | +140 Top-10 (FanDuel)
Well, he’s not the tournament favorite (Rahm), so I can’t say we are taking the chalk here, but Cantlay has been undeniably great this year, better than Rahm with his results. I figured his win was coming last week, but with a couple good chances the last few holes to make a birdie, he was unable to do so, then ultimately lost in the playoff. However, he has been fantastic with finishes of 2nd, T4, T9 and T4 so far this year.
You must be a great ball-striker to contend at Riviera and Cantlay is of course, just that. He ranks 4th in SG Tee to Green over the last six months and #1 overall by a wide margin, averaging +3.04 Strokes Gained per round with the next closest, Justin Thomas at +2.34, thanks to leading the Tour in SG Putting.
Oh, and he has finished inside the top-20 in each of the last four years at Riviera.
Will Zalatoris +2800 | +300 Top-10 (FanDuel)
The asterisk here is that Willy Z had a bout of COVID keeping him out of the field since Torrey Pines, but let’s hope it doesn’t thwart his momentum. Zalatoris lost in a playoff at Torrey Pines and finished T6 the week prior at the American Express in his two starts so far in 2022.
He happens to rank 1st on Tour this season in both SG Approach and SG Tee to Green, while also ranking #6 in Greens in Regulation, an important metric this week considering this is one of the hardest courses on Tour to hit greens. Going back a little further to a full six months, Zalatoris ranks #6 in SG Tee to Green, inside the Top-10 in that all important metric.
In his only start here, Zalatoris finished T15 at Riviera last year.
Bubba Watson Top-10 +410 | Top-20 +185 (FanDuel)
Bubba was a sexy pick last week and will likely be another one this week considering his course history at these two events. He probably would have been overlooked, but he jumped up on everyone’s radar after finishing runner-up in the big Saudi International event. He then backed up the hype last week at TPC Scottsdale, finishing T14.
At Riviera, nobody has been better than Bubba. He hasn’t exactly been consistent year in and year out here, as evidenced by his five MC’s and two WD’s in 15 starts, but when he makes the cut, you can bet on him being in contention. In the eight tournaments he made the cut, he finished inside the Top-20 in every one of them, and oh year, he won this thing three times in 2014, 2016 and 2018!
Genesis Invitational DFS Recommendations
From Andy Lang: Matthew Fitzpatrick has finished top 10 the last two weeks, and has finished 30th and 5th the last two years here.
Adam Scott had a miserable round four last week, but he’s been solid in 2022 with two top 10s, and he’s never missed the cut here including a win in 2020.
Hideki Matsuyama has looked good this season with two wins in his last five tournaments, and he finished 8th last week. He missed the cut last year, but it looks like an outlier as he finished 5th and 9th the two previous years.
Andy’s Players to Avoid
Scottie Scheffler getting his first win last week was special, but this is a big let down spot for him. He finished 20th and 30th the last two years here, but he has to be flying high and for good reason. Look for him to have a letdown week.
Patrick Reed has been bad in 2022 and is coming off a horrible 38th finish in Saudi Arabia. He doesn’t play here very often and when he does, he’s not good finishing 51st, 59th and MC.
Genesis Invitational Draftkings Darlings
Wyndham Clark ($6500) – He’s made the cut in three out of four tournaments, and has finished 8th and 17th here the last two years.
Patrick Rodgers ($6500) – He hasn’t been good the last two weeks, but he has five straight top 30 finishes at this tourney including 12th last year.
Adam Hadwin ($7100) – He’s never missed the cut here in eight years, and has finished top 26 in three out of four weeks.
SI Woo Kim ($7300) – Every time I start to believe in him he burns me, but I can’t ignore his finishes this season at 26th, 11th, 11th, 55th 23rd.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Genesis Invitational from Riviera? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | Genesis Invitational Preview
On this episode of WagerTalk’s Tee Time from Vegas, golf handicappers Andy Lang and Nick Borrman preview the Genesis Invitational from Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles. Join Nick and Andy every Wednesday morning at 10am ET / 7am PT for their PGA picks and predictions.
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