UAB vs Memphis Prediction, Picks & Odds for October 10, 2026
Last season, UAB walked into its matchup with Memphis as a 23.5-point underdog and walked out with a stunning 31-24 upset in the debut for both head coach Alex Mortensen and quarterback Ryder Burton. The Blazers have already surpassed expectations again with a 3-2 start, but a storm rising from the Gulf could change everything about this rematch at the Liberty Bowl.
This UAB vs Memphis prediction hinges on whether the weather turns the game into a ground battle that heavily favors the Tigers, or whether Burton can once again carve up Memphis through the air. Before you finalize your free college football picks, here is the full breakdown of odds, line movement, matchups, and best bets.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Memphis -14 (-108)
- Total Pick: Under 52.5 (-110)
- Projected Final Score: Memphis 31, UAB 13
Odds and Line Movement for UAB vs Memphis
Memphis opened as a 14-point favorite on October 4, briefly moved to -15.5, and has since returned to -14 with Memphis drawing all of the spread money. The total has been the bigger story. It dropped five full points from 57.5 to 52.5 as the Under received 100 percent of the money and tickets, likely in anticipation of weather. Keep checking the live odds as the forecast develops, because this total may not be finished moving.
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| UAB Blazers | +14 (-110) | Over 57.5 (-108) |
| Memphis Tigers | -14 (-110) | Under 57.5 (-112) |
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| UAB Blazers | +14 (-112) | Over 52.5 (-110) |
| Memphis Tigers | -14 (-108) | Under 52.5 (-110) |
Line Movement – Spread
| Date | UAB | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | +14 (-112) | -14 (-108) |
| 10/07 | +14 (-110) | -14 (-110) |
| 10/07 | +14 (-112) | -14 (-108) |
| 10/05 | +14 (-110) | -14 (-110) |
| 10/05 | +14.5 (-112) | -14.5 (-108) |
| 10/04 | +14.5 (-108) | -14.5 (-112) |
| 10/04 | +14.5 (-112) | -14.5 (-108) |
| 10/04 | +15.5 (-110) | -15.5 (-110) |
| 10/04 | +14 (-110) | -14 (-110) |
Line Movement – Total
| Date | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | 52.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-110) |
| 10/07 | 52.5 (-112) | 52.5 (-108) |
| 10/07 | 53.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) |
| 10/07 | 53.5 (-112) | 53.5 (-108) |
| 10/07 | 53.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) |
| 10/07 | 53.5 (-115) | 53.5 (-105) |
| 10/07 | 54.5 (-105) | 54.5 (-115) |
| 10/07 | 54.5 (-112) | 54.5 (-108) |
| 10/07 | 54.5 (-118) | 54.5 (-102) |
| 10/07 | 55.5 (-102) | 55.5 (-118) |
| 10/07 | 54.5 (-118) | 54.5 (-102) |
| 10/07 | 55.5 (+100) | 55.5 (-120) |
| 10/07 | 55.5 (-105) | 55.5 (-115) |
| 10/07 | 55.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-110) |
| 10/07 | 55.5 (-115) | 55.5 (-105) |
| 10/06 | 56.5 (-110) | 56.5 (-110) |
| 10/06 | 56.5 (-115) | 56.5 (-105) |
| 10/06 | 57.5 (-112) | 57.5 (-108) |
| 10/05 | 57.5 (-108) | 57.5 (-112) |
UAB vs Memphis Key Matchups and Handicap
Both teams likely enjoyed extra preparation time after easy games last week, which removes some of the usual scheduling variables. That leaves the handicap focused on two things: the weather and each team’s ability to run the football if conditions turn sloppy.
UAB Stunned Memphis Last Season
Memphis had won and covered each of the three meetings before last year, when UAB pulled off a shocking 31-24 upset as a 23.5-point underdog. Burton was outstanding in that game, completing 20 of 27 passes for 251 yards and three touchdowns. That performance is the blueprint UAB will need to follow again, but it depended heavily on success through the air.
UAB Ahead of Schedule Under Alex Mortensen
Mortensen and Burton are still paired together in Birmingham, and the results have exceeded expectations. UAB entered the season with a regular season win total of 3.5 and is already knocking on that door with a 3-2 start. The Blazers hosted Samford as a 31.5-point favorite last week, which likely allowed for extra preparation for this matchup.
Memphis and UAB on Opposite Ends of the Totals Spectrum
These teams have landed on opposite sides of the totals ledger this season. Memphis’ last four games have all gone over the total, while UAB’s last four games have all stayed under. Memphis also had little to worry about last week in a 51-point win over Charlotte, so the Tigers should be fresh and prepared.
MEM Ground Game Built for the Weather
The handicap likely revolves around the storm rising from the Gulf. If wind and rain arrive at the Liberty Bowl, Memphis is far better equipped to handle those conditions. The Tigers average 6.08 yards per rush this season, while UAB generates just 4.16 yards per carry. A weather-affected game would play directly into Memphis’ strength and limit what UAB can do offensively.
Blazers Must Throw to Pull Another Upset
UAB needs to throw the ball to have any chance of shocking Memphis in back-to-back years. Burton’s efficient passing carried the upset last season, but that path becomes much more difficult in wind and rain. Without a dependable running game to fall back on, the Blazers could struggle to stay on schedule if the passing attack is limited by conditions.
Betting Trends: UAB vs MEM
- Memphis won and covered each of the three meetings before last season.
- UAB won 31-24 last season as a 23.5-point underdog.
- UAB is 3-2 after entering the season with a regular season win total of 3.5.
- Memphis’ last four games have all gone over the total.
- UAB’s last four games have all stayed under the total.
- Memphis opened at -14, moved as high as -15.5 and has returned to -14.
- Memphis has received 100 percent of the spread money.
- The total has dropped from 57.5 to 52.5, with the Under drawing 100 percent of the money and tickets.
- Memphis averages 6.08 yards per rush, while UAB averages 4.16 yards per carry.
Key Injuries and Notes: UAB vs MEM
UAB Blazers:
- Quarterback Ryder Burton went 20-of-27 for 251 yards and three touchdowns in last season’s upset of Memphis.
- Head coach Alex Mortensen and Burton made their debuts together in last year’s win over the Tigers.
- UAB hosted Samford as a 31.5-point favorite last week.
Memphis Tigers:
- Memphis won by 51 points over Charlotte last week.
- The Tigers’ rushing attack averages 6.08 yards per carry.
- A storm rising from the Gulf could bring wind and rain to the Liberty Bowl.
UAB vs Memphis ATS and Total Picks
Spread Pick: Memphis -14 (-108)
Memphis has every advantage if the weather turns. The Tigers run the ball nearly two yards per carry better than UAB, and a wet, windy game would take away the passing attack the Blazers need to compete. Memphis has also drawn all of the spread money, and the Tigers should be motivated after last season’s embarrassing upset. Laying 14 with the team built for the conditions is the play.
Total Pick: Under 52.5 (-110)
The total has fallen five points, and every dollar and ticket has landed on the Under. UAB’s last four games have stayed under, and the Blazers’ lack of a strong rushing attack combined with possible wind and rain could stall their offense. Even though Memphis has been an Over team, a weather-impacted game featuring a heavy dose of the Tigers’ running game should shorten possessions and keep the scoreboard in check.
UAB vs Memphis Best Bets
- Best Bet: Under 52.5 (-110)
- Spread Play: Memphis -14 (-108)
The weather is the deciding factor, and both best bets flow from it. Memphis’ superior rushing attack is built for difficult conditions, while UAB’s reliance on Burton’s arm becomes a liability in wind and rain. Back the Tigers to win and cover, and pair them with the Under.
Final Score Prediction for UAB vs Memphis
Memphis leans on its 6.08 yards per carry rushing attack and controls the game on the ground. UAB cannot replicate last season’s passing success in difficult conditions, and the Tigers avenge last year’s upset with a convincing win in a lower-scoring game.
- Projected Final Score: Memphis 31, UAB 13
- Spread Pick: Memphis -14 (-108)
- Total Pick: Under 52.5 (-110)
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