Sam Houston vs Missouri State Prediction, Picks & Odds

Sam Houston’s 1-6 record hides one of the most stubborn defenses in college football, and Missouri State’s 2-5 mark hides one of the worst. The Bearkats rank third in all of FBS against the pass, and they are about to face a Missouri State team whose biggest offensive strength is throwing the football.

Meanwhile, the Bears are coming off a 61-38 loss to Delaware in which their defense was torched once again. When a struggling offense meets a defense ranked 130th in points allowed, the underdog becomes very interesting. If you are looking for sharp college football predictions, this Sam Houston vs Missouri State matchup is a spot where the points look like the smart play.

Sam Houston vs Missouri State Quick Picks and Prediction

Spread Pick: Sam Houston +5.5 (-110)
Total Pick: Under 49.5 (-112)
Projected Final Score: Missouri State 24, Sam Houston 21

Odds and Line Movement for Sam Houston vs Missouri State

Missouri State is a 5.5-point consensus favorite, although a couple of 4.5s can be found at smaller outlets. The spread has bounced between 5.5 and 6.5 throughout the market and currently sits back at 5.5. The total has slipped from the 50.5 to 51.5 range down to 49.5, and it is consistent across the board. Compare the latest odds before placing a wager to make sure you get the best number on the underdog.

Opening Odds – SHSU vs MOSU

Team	Spread	Total
Sam Houston Bearkats	+5.5 (-115)	Over 50.5 (-120)
Missouri State Bears	-5.5 (-105)	Under 50.5 (+100)

Current Odds – SHSU vs MOSU

Team	Spread	Total
Sam Houston Bearkats	+5.5 (-110)	Over 49.5 (-108)
Missouri State Bears	-5.5 (-110)	Under 49.5 (-112)

Line Movement – Spread

Date	Sam Houston	Missouri State
10/26	+5.5 (-110)	-5.5 (-110)
10/26	+6 (-112)	-6 (-108)
10/25	+6.5 (-110)	-6.5 (-110)
10/25	+6 (-105)	-6 (-115)
10/25	+6 (-108)	-6 (-112)
10/25	+6 (-105)	-6 (-115)
10/25	+6 (-108)	-6 (-112)
10/25	+6 (-110)	-6 (-110)
10/25	+6 (-115)	-6 (-105)
10/25	+5.5 (-110)	-5.5 (-110)
10/25	+6 (-115)	-6 (-105)
10/25	+6 (-112)	-6 (-108)
10/25	+5.5 (-115)	-5.5 (-105)

Line Movement – Total

Date	Over	Under
10/26	49.5 (-108)	49.5 (-112)
10/25	49.5 (-112)	49.5 (-108)
10/25	50.5 (-108)	50.5 (-112)
10/25	49.5 (-115)	49.5 (-105)
10/25	50.5 (-108)	50.5 (-112)
10/25	51.5 (+100)	51.5 (-120)
10/25	50.5 (-120)	50.5 (+100)
10/25	51.5 (+100)	51.5 (-120)
10/25	50.5 (-120)	50.5 (+100)
10/25	51.5 (+100)	51.5 (-120)
10/25	50.5 (-120)	50.5 (+100)

Key Matchups and Handicap: Sam Houston vs Missouri State

This Conference USA meeting features two teams with ugly records, but the context behind those records tells very different stories. These programs did not play each other last season, so there is no recent head-to-head history to lean on.

Instead, this handicap comes down to one central question: can a Sam Houston offense that struggles to score find enough success against a Missouri State defense that ranks among the worst in the country?

Bearkats Deserve Better Than 1-6

Sam Houston is 1-6 overall and 0-3 in Conference USA, but this team has deserved a better fate for much of the year. The Bearkats started the season 3-0 against the spread. They were a big underdog against Troy and lost by only three points.

They were also a big underdog against Tulsa and nearly won outright, failing to score the game-tying touchdown on the final play of the game. They beat FCS Nicholls, then got rolled on the road at Texas Tech and Liberty, failing to cover in both of those difficult spots.

The last two weeks exposed the offense. As a home favorite of a point to a point and a half against Western Kentucky, Sam Houston managed just 177 yards of total offense, went 2-of-13 on third down and committed 100 yards in penalties. The Bearkats followed that up by losing as a short home underdog to New Mexico State.

The offense ranks 121st in FBS, 120th in scoring and 138th in rushing, which is dead last in the nation. The passing game has been more productive, with the quarterback throwing for 1,653 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions, but Sam Houston has struggled to turn yards into points.

The defense is where Sam Houston shines. The Bearkats rank third in all of FBS in passing yards allowed, although they have struggled against the run, ranking 129th. With three one-score losses this season in games they easily could have won, Sam Houston has shown it can stay competitive as an underdog.

Missouri State Defense Ranks Among the Worst

Missouri State enters off a 61-38 loss to Delaware, a game that featured 99 combined points. The Bears are 2-5 overall and 1-2 in conference play, and their only two wins came against Kennesaw State and FCS Lindenwood.

Missouri State has kept some games close, losing by six to Marshall and by 10 to SMU at the end of September, but it was also blown out at Western Kentucky and rolled by Texas A&M.

The defense is the biggest concern. Missouri State ranks 130th in FBS in points allowed per game, and the Bears have given up at least 30 points in every one of their losses. In their two wins, they allowed 21 and 14 points.

Offensively, Missouri State is serviceable, and its biggest strength is throwing the ball. Unfortunately for the Bears, that plays directly into the strength of a Sam Houston defense that ranks third in the country against the pass.

Missouri State does have home-field advantage, but laying close to a touchdown with a defense this vulnerable is a tough ask. If Sam Houston’s offense can find any rhythm against this unit, covering the number becomes very difficult for the Bears.

Betting Trends: SHSU vs MOSU

Sam Houston is 1-6 overall and 0-3 in Conference USA.
The Bearkats started the season 3-0 against the spread.
Sam Houston has three one-score losses this season.
Missouri State is 2-5 overall and 1-2 in conference play.
Missouri State has allowed at least 30 points in every loss this season.
Missouri State’s only wins came against Kennesaw State and Lindenwood.
These two teams did not meet last season.
The spread has moved between 5.5 and 6.5 and currently sits at Missouri State -5.5.
The total has dropped from the 50.5 to 51.5 range down to 49.5.
Current public betting data shows 86% of the spread money on Missouri State.
On the total, 78% of the money and 75% of the bets are on the Over.

Key Injuries and Notes: SHSU vs MOSU

Sam Houston’s offense ranks 121st in FBS, 120th in scoring and 138th in rushing.
Sam Houston’s defense ranks third in FBS in passing yards allowed but 129th against the run.
The Sam Houston quarterback has thrown for 1,653 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions.
Sam Houston managed just 177 total yards and went 2-of-13 on third down against Western Kentucky.
Missouri State ranks 130th in FBS in points allowed per game.
Missouri State lost 61-38 to Delaware in its most recent game.
Missouri State’s offense is at its best when throwing the ball.

ATS and Total Picks: Sam Houston vs Missouri State

Sam Houston has proven it can compete as an underdog, and its pass defense matches up perfectly against what Missouri State does best on offense. On the other side, a Missouri State defense that ranks 130th in points allowed gives a struggling Bearkats offense its best opportunity in weeks to find some production. Missouri State may grind out a win at home, but laying 5.5 points with this defense is not appealing. Take the points with Sam Houston.

The total is less appealing, but there is a slight lean to the Under 49.5. Sam Houston’s defense should do a good job of keeping Missouri State’s passing attack in check, and the Bearkats’ offense has had trouble producing points all season.

ATS Pick: Sam Houston +5.5 (-110)
Total Pick: Under 49.5 (-112)

Sam Houston vs Missouri State Best Bets

Best Bet: Sam Houston +5.5 (-110)
Total: Under 49.5 (-112)

Sam Houston’s elite pass defense and its track record of hanging around in close games make the Bearkats a team you can trust with the points. Missouri State’s defensive struggles should keep this one within reach right down to the final whistle.