New Mexico Bowl Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Tony Finn offers his Fresno State vs UETP New Mexico Bowl betting preview. At the time of posting, the Bulldogs from the Mountain West are holding steady as an 11.5-point favorite over Conference USA’s Miners, with the total sitting at 52 points.

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New Mexico Bowl	Betting Notes
Point Spread:	Fresno State Bulldogs -11.5 vs UTEP Miners
Total:	52 Points
Game Time:	2:15pm ET / 11:15am PT on Saturday, December 18
Stadium:	Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque
TV:	ESPN

New Mexico Bowl Analysis

The Fresno State Bulldogs (9-3, MWC) and UTEP Miners (7-5, C-USA) are set to play in the New Mexico Bowl holiday event at Dreamstyle Stadium Albuquerque, NM. The Mountain West vs Conference USA contest kickoff is Saturday, December 18th at 2:15 pm ET. UTEP is playing in their first bowl game since 2014. Fresno will be playing without their head coach Kalen DeBoer, who took the same job at Washington.

Fresno State fought the entire season and was in line to be one of the two Mountain schools in the conference title game. However, with DeBoer moving into the Pac 12 with Washington, the bench boss role in this New Mexico Bowl game goes to running backs coach Lee Marks. The Miners were pass-heavy this season, averaging 16 yards per completion.

The drama of a coaching change and how that affects a team’s mindset is almost always different from player to player and team to team. DeBoer’s move from Fresno to Power Five Washington initially involved Fresno State, QB Jake Haener. This year’s field general for the Bulldogs was set to leave with DeBoer to Washington, but Haener had a change of heart and is back with the Bulldogs and will be a part of game day in New Mexico.

Fresno State Bulldogs

Quarterback Jake Haener was reportedly set to join him at UW, but some eligibility concerns may keep him in the program.
Fresno’s Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde season were evident on both sides of the ball this season. As good as the Bulldogs were offensively, they could be just as porous with their multi-tiered defense.
Fresno has a talented offensive line that has been the backbone of a strong running game.
Fresno’s offense let the Mountain West Conference in total yards.
The Bulldogs defense allowed just 127 yards by ground per game.

UTEP Miners

Not only is this UTEPs first bowl since 2014, but it’s also only the program’s second winning season since 2005.
The Miners finished second in Conference USA in total defense.
UTEP was an all-or-nothing offense that depended on hitting a deep pass or two to win the game day.
The Miners were pass-heavy this season, averaging 16 yards per completion. The passing game wasn’t anything special overall – averaging 250 yards per game – but when QB Gavin Hardison could open it up a little bit, games changed.
The Miner defense was subject to a fine line of subjectivity. You can argue that the Minors schedule didn’t allow the unit to grow as the season wore on. The Miners’ two quality foes faced this season were UTSA and Boise State.
The Miners are 0-3 on the season when allowing more than 400 yards of total offense. UTEPs bowl foe this Saturday, Fresno State, averages 464 yards of total offense per game.

New Mexico Bowl Predictions

Fresno was tested in nearly every scheduled game they had this season. Even when the Bulldogs won by margin, it wasn’t easy. Fresno could do little to nothing right vs. Hawaii. If you witnessed the game against Boise State, it wouldn’t surprise me to hear you say that the ‘Dogs were a no-show for that Boise game. How Fresno ended up on the winning side of their game against the league bottom squad, UNLV, will be a mystery that is likely never solved.

The tug of war with heart and head won’t escape most Fresno players. The head coach and the starting quarterback left for Washington. Well … the quarterback returned. Fresno is a program in transition, and if you are from the school that labels UTEP capable of taking advantage of Fresno’s soft spots, it would be difficult for anyone to argue with you.

As up and down, side to side, and inside and out, the Fresno State Bulldogs have played this season; the competition had something to do with it. The Mountain West Conference wasn’t anything special this season. I have labeled the league a down campaign due to a lack of playmakers.

Fresno is night and day more talented than UTEP. The Bulldogs have the playmakers to hide the offenses’ tendency to be careless with the ball. However, the constant in this game is that Fresno State’s offense will have its way once or twice. And the once or twice represents a two or three touchdown scoring spree at some point in this game against the UTEP defense.

The Miner offense will scuffle to avoid the big turnover and move the chain. They are likely to have 100 yards in penalties before the final gun sounds signal the game’s end. And in the future, Fresno earns a straight-up win and cover over upstart UTEP.

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New Mexico Bowl Preview from The GoldSheet

Fresno head coach Kalen DeBoer left town to take the Washington job, and apparently take QB Jake Haener, who once transferred from the Huskies, was poised to leave with him. Only for Haener to pull his name out of the transfer portal once former HC Jeff Tedford, who preceded DeBoer as Bulldogs HC, was also named his successor. Now Haener, who transferred to Fresno partly because of Tedford before he resigned two years ago, is apparently back in the Bulldog fold, at least for this bowl game, after which he would be free to change his mind again and maybe join DeBoer back in Seattle. Or maybe not, as no official word if Haener will start, or even play, in Albuquerque.

For good measure, OC Ryan Grubb has also left for Seattle with DeBoer, so about the only thing we know for sure with Fresno is that Lee Marks will act as interim HC for the bowl. Got all of that? We’d say Haener is pretty important to the Bulldog cause, after passing for 3810 yards and 32 TDs, and his backups combining for all of 21 attempts in various garbage times.

So, if calmer waters mean anything, advantage UTEP, which by comparison has had a rather quiet bowl prep after becoming eligible before Halloween, which should qualify HC Dana Dimel for a trip to the White House with a program not bowling since 2014 and winless the year before he inherited this reclamation project at the Sun Bowl in 2018. This new-found competitiveness is thanks to the best Miner defense in a generation, ranking a very respectable 31st nationally (a major upgrade in El Paso), a big-play QB in soph Gavin Hardison, and a serviceable infantry diversion led by RB Ronald Awatt (803 YR & 5.3 ypc). Reportedly jumping out of their boots in excitement for this rare bowl adventure, we might have been tempted to bite on UTEP even before the myriad Fresno distractions of the past two weeks.

New Mexico Bowl Video Breakdown

How will UTEP fare in the Miners’ first bowl game appearance in seven seasons? WagerTalk college football handicappers Dave Cokin, Bryan Leonard and Tony Mejia offer their New Mexico Bowl betting preview.

New Mexico Bowl Stats

College football handicappers Ralph Michaels and JM Sports have put together a 66-page Bowl Betting Guide featuring everything from first quarter scoring to yards per point to plays per minute. Don’t place a bet on the New Mexico Bowl before diving into this FREE download.

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WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the college football bowl games, including this New Mexico Bowl showdown between Fresno State and UTEP, from your desktop or phone.

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