Iowa State vs BYU Prediction, Picks & Odds for October 9, 2026
BYU might have needed a pregame pep talk from devoted Cougars fan Marie Osmond last week. Kalani Sitake’s team gained just 216 yards in Fort Worth and needed an onside kick recovery in the final minute to hold off TCU, 17-10. Now the Cougars host a scrappy Iowa State team while Notre Dame’s visit to Provo next week and a trip to Salt Lake City to face the hated Utes three weeks later loom on the horizon.
This Iowa State vs BYU prediction comes down to one question: can a BYU offense missing its top rusher create enough separation against a battle-tested Cyclones team? Before you lock in your college football predictions, here is the complete breakdown of odds, line movement, matchups, and best bets.
Iowa State vs BYU Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Iowa State +10.5 (-115)
- Total Pick: Under 45.5 (-108)
- Projected Final Score: BYU 24, Iowa State 17
Odds and Line Movement for Iowa State vs BYU
BYU opened as an 11.5-point favorite on October 4, and the spread quickly dropped to 10.5, briefly dipped to 10, and now sits back at 10.5. The total has seen the biggest shift on the board, falling from 49.5 to 45.5. Under money has driven the move, even with the majority of tickets landing on the Over. Monitor the live odds leading up to kickoff, as both numbers have moved throughout the week.
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Iowa State Cyclones | +11.5 (-115) | Over 49.5 (-110) |
| BYU Cougars | -11.5 (-105) | Under 49.5 (-110) |
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Iowa State Cyclones | +10.5 (-115) | Over 45.5 (-112) |
| BYU Cougars | -10.5 (-105) | Under 45.5 (-108) |
Line Movement – Spread
| Date | Iowa State | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | +10.5 (-115) | -10.5 (-105) |
| 10/07 | +10 (-105) | -10 (-115) |
| 10/07 | +10 (-108) | -10 (-112) |
| 10/07 | +10 (-110) | -10 (-110) |
| 10/07 | +10.5 (-118) | -10.5 (-102) |
| 10/05 | +10.5 (-112) | -10.5 (-108) |
| 10/05 | +10.5 (-108) | -10.5 (-112) |
| 10/05 | +10.5 (-112) | -10.5 (-108) |
| 10/04 | +10.5 (-105) | -10.5 (-115) |
| 10/04 | +10.5 (-110) | -10.5 (-110) |
| 10/04 | +10.5 (-105) | -10.5 (-115) |
| 10/04 | +10.5 (-115) | -10.5 (-105) |
| 10/04 | +11.5 (-115) | -11.5 (-105) |
Line Movement – Total
| Date | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | 45.5 (-112) | 45.5 (-108) |
| 10/08 | 46.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-112) |
| 10/08 | 45.5 (-112) | 45.5 (-108) |
| 10/07 | 46.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-112) |
| 10/05 | 46.5 (-112) | 46.5 (-108) |
| 10/05 | 47.5 (-108) | 47.5 (-112) |
| 10/05 | 47.5 (-112) | 47.5 (-108) |
| 10/05 | 47.5 (-118) | 47.5 (-102) |
| 10/05 | 48.5 (-105) | 48.5 (-115) |
| 10/04 | 48.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) |
| 10/04 | 47.5 (-118) | 47.5 (-102) |
| 10/04 | 48.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) |
| 10/04 | 49.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) |
Key Matchups and Handicap
On paper, BYU is the more accomplished team, but the context surrounding this game makes it far trickier than a double-digit spread suggests. The Cougars are coming off a sluggish win, are likely without their best runner, and have the two biggest games on their schedule waiting just ahead. Iowa State, meanwhile, has played close with quality opponents all season.
BYU Offense Stalls in Fort Worth
Drizzly conditions and an aroused TCU defense may have contributed to BYU’s lethargic showing last Saturday, but the numbers are hard to ignore. The Cougars managed only 216 yards of offense at Amon Carter Stadium, and the result was not secured until an onside kick recovery in the last minute preserved the 17-10 win and a narrow cover. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier was unable to look downfield, throwing for just 62 yards on 24 attempts, a mere 2.6 yards per pass. Sitake and offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick will need to fix the passing game quickly.
The bigger issue is in the backfield. Top rusher LJ Martin, who ran for 1,305 yards in 2025 and is on another 1,000-yard pace this season, left early in Fort Worth with an ankle injury and is listed as doubtful. Sitake is expected to be cautious to make sure Martin is available for Notre Dame next week. His absence removes one of BYU’s most dynamic weapons, which could make it harder for the Cougars to extend the margin.
Iowa State Builds a Balanced Attack Under Jimmy Rogers
New head coach Jimmy Rogers knows how to win, including an FCS title a few years ago at South Dakota State, and he has quickly crafted an incredibly balanced offense in Ames. The Cyclones have gained 971 yards through the air and 987 yards on the ground. Rogers found a serviceable quarterback in the transfer portal when he landed three-year starter Jaylen Raynor from Butch Jones’ Arkansas State program. The dual-threat Raynor has thrown a touchdown pass in all five games.
Iowa State has also been battle-tested. The Cyclones were within one score of Utah into the final minutes two weeks ago in Ames, lost by three points at rugged Iowa, and won a shootout last week over an improved West Virginia team under Rich Rodriguez.
ISU Big-Play Threat Aiden Flora
Rogers also uncovered a big-play machine in holdover sophomore running back Aiden Flora. Flora ranks seventh nationally with 594 rushing yards and destroyed West Virginia last week with 212 yards and three touchdowns, including scoring runs of 24 and 63 yards. He gives Iowa State a home-run threat that can keep the Cyclones within reach even if the offense stalls for stretches.
BYU Defense Holds the Ultimate Edge
BYU’s brawling defense is the biggest reason the Cougars should still win this game. BYU allows only 268 yards per game, and that unit kept the Cougars in control last week even when the offense sputtered. Containing Flora and Raynor will be the priority, and BYU’s defense has the profile to do it.
Cougars Face a Look-Ahead Trap
Even with the defensive advantage, this sets up as a tough test regardless of scheduling. With Notre Dame coming to Provo next week and Utah three weeks later, the potential look-ahead adds an extra degree of peril for the hosts. A team that struggled offensively last week, without its top rusher and with bigger games on the horizon, is a risky proposition to lay double digits.
Betting Trends: ISU vs BYU
- BYU opened as an 11.5-point favorite and has moved to -10.5, briefly reaching as low as -10.
- Iowa State has drawn 82 percent of the spread money, while BYU holds 67 percent of the tickets.
- Earlier in the week, Iowa State attracted as much as 96 percent of the spread money.
- The total opened at 49.5 and has dropped to 45.5.
- The Under has received 84 percent of the money, while the Over holds 83 percent of the tickets.
- Earlier in the week, the Under drew 98 to 100 percent of the money.
- BYU’s 17-10 win over TCU was a narrow cover sealed by an onside kick recovery in the final minute.
- Iowa State lost by three points at Iowa and was within one score of Utah into the final minutes.
- Jaylen Raynor has thrown a touchdown pass in all five Iowa State games.
Key Injuries and Notes: ISU vs BYU
Iowa State Cyclones:
- Running back Aiden Flora ranks seventh nationally with 594 rushing yards and ran for 212 yards and three touchdowns last week.
- Quarterback Jaylen Raynor, a transfer from Arkansas State, has thrown a touchdown pass in every game.
- The Cyclones have 971 passing yards and 987 rushing yards this season.
BYU Cougars:
- LJ Martin (RB) – Doubtful (ankle)
- Quarterback Bear Bachmeier threw for only 62 yards on 24 attempts against TCU.
- BYU gained just 216 yards of offense last week.
- The Cougars host Notre Dame next week and face Utah three weeks later.
ATS and Total Picks
Spread Pick: Iowa State +10.5 (-115)
Iowa State has stayed competitive against strong opponents, and its balanced attack, led by Raynor and Flora, gives it a steady path to points. BYU is coming off a 216-yard offensive showing, will likely be without Martin, and faces an obvious look-ahead spot with Notre Dame next. The majority of the spread money is backing the Cyclones, and taking more than 10 points with a battle-tested underdog is the right side.
Total Pick: Under 45.5 (-108)
The total has fallen four full points from the open, and the money has consistently landed on the Under despite the Over drawing most of the tickets. BYU’s defense allows only 268 yards per game, and the Cougars’ offense struggled badly without a downfield passing game. Without Martin, BYU is likely to lean on a grinding approach that keeps the clock moving and the scoreboard quiet.
Iowa State vs BYU Best Bets
- Best Bet: Iowa State +10.5 (-115)
- Total Play: Under 45.5 (-108)
BYU’s defense should carry the Cougars to a win, but the offensive questions and Martin’s likely absence make a double-digit margin hard to trust. Back Iowa State to cover and pair it with the Under, which lines up with both the sharp money and BYU’s defensive strength.
Final Score Prediction for Iowa State vs BYU
BYU’s defense does enough to slow Flora and Raynor, but the Cougars’ offense remains limited without Martin and with Notre Dame on deck. Iowa State hangs around into the fourth quarter, and BYU grinds out another low-scoring win without covering the number.
- Projected Final Score: BYU 24, Iowa State 17
- Spread Pick: Iowa State +10.5 (-115)
- Total Pick: Under 45.5 (-108)
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