2022 Big Ten Football Betting Preview | Marc Lawrence’s Playbook

Big Ten Football Predictions and Betting Odds

Football fans have been using Marc Lawrence’s Playbook to prep for upcoming football seasons for the last 30 years. Marc shares his thoughts on the 2022 Big Ten football season with key stats and betting angles to keep an eye on.

Interested in joining WagerTalk at the Westgate’s SuperContest Weekend in Las Vegas? Click here to learn more about the activities (golf, basketball, panels and more) and the discounted room block as WagerTalk takes over Sin City in August.

Big Ten Expansion on the Horizon

In 1990, the Big Ten universities voted to expand the conference from 10 to 11 teams and extended an invitation to Atlantic 10 member and football independent Penn State, which accepted it. When the Nittany Lions joined in 1990, it was decided the conference would continue to be called the Big Ten.

In 2011 Nebraska was added as the conference’s 12th school when the Big Ten formed two divisions – the Legends and the Leaders – which stayed in effect until 2013. The conference also adopted its Big Ten Conference Championship Game between the winners of the two divisions.

In 2014 Maryland and Rutgers came aboard with the conference expanding to 14 teams. It was also then the titles of the division changed to East Division and West Division.

Roll the clock forward to 2022 to the West Coast expansion when UCLA and USC announced they would be joining the conference in 2024.

Somehow we feel it won’t stop there with the brand of “Super Conference” being bandied about.

2022 Big Ten Championship Odds

Odds below courtesy of DraftKings as of Wednesday, July 6:

Team	Big Ten Championship Odds
Ohio State	-210
Michigan	+600
Wisconsin	+1100
Penn State	+1600
Iowa	+2000
Nebraska	+2200
Minnesota	+2800
Michigan State	+2800
Purdue	+3000
Maryland	+15000
Illinois	+15000
Indiana	+30000
Northwestern	+40000
Rutgers	+50000

Projected All-Big Ten Team

The projected All-Big Ten team from Athlon’s Sports, based on how players will perform in 2022, is led by 17 selections from Michigan, while Ohio State (16), Michigan State (11), and Iowa (11) round out the Top Four with double-digit selections this season.

Minnesota and Purdue are next with 9. The next tier is headlined by Penn State (8), Maryland (8), Illinois (7), Nebraska (7), and Wisconsin (7).

Indiana, Northwestern, and Rutgers round out the list with 6 selections each.

Big Ten Betting Notes

• Big Ten teams have fared exceptionally well as underdogs in bowl games dating back to 1998, going 68-51-1 ATS Overall.
• When coming off a win they zoom to 46-28 ATS, including 29-8 ATS against foes surrendering 21.5 or more points per game.
• On a sidebar note: Since 1946, the Big Ten champion has had a tie-in with the Rose Bowl game. It was not until the 1975 season that the Big Ten allowed teams to play in bowl games other than the Rose Bowl. With expansion running wild, the future of Big Ten/Rose Bowl tie-ins is up in the air.

Big Ten Football Team Previews

Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2022 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine – on sale at Barnes & Noble and Books A Million bookstores nationwide or PlaybookSports.com.

INDIANA – CRASH AND BURN – 4 W – *5 / 7

Indiana now knows what Space Shuttle Columbia went through during its disastrous return to earth. Well, not quite to the same degree, but the Hoosiers’ descent last season was calamitous. And that’s being kind for a 2-win team that was ranked in the Preseason Coaches Poll for the first time since 1968. While star QB Michael Penix Jr. was in limbo most of the season with injuries, the Hoosiers offense averaged a mere 10.4 PPG, finishing ahead of only lowly UConn nationwide in overall Offensive Pass Efficiency. Charred and burned head coach Tom Allen is hoping Missouri transfer QB Connor Bazelak can lead an upward ascent in 2022.

PLAY ON: at Cincinnati (9/24)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Indiana seniors made 191 team starts last season, the second-most in the Big Ten, and 10th highest in the nation.

MARYLAND – STICKING THEIR NECKS OUT – 6 W – *9 / 7

Not only did the Terps come out of their shell and enjoy their first winning season since 2014 last year, but they also crushed Virginia Tech in the Pinstripe Bowl for their first bowl win since 2010. After transferring in from Alabama, and leading the attack, QB Taulia Tagoviola returns after passing for 3,860 yards and 26 TDs. Another year of improvement by Tagoviola could find him among the top QBs in the nation this season. Best of all, his top three WRs return, in addition to Florida transfer Jacob Copeland, who joins the fray in what shapes up as possibly the best receiving corps in the conference.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. SMU (9/17)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Maryland is 0-10 SUATS during the regular season following a win from Game Seven out over the last nine years.

MICHIGAN – SNUB CLUB – 9.5 W – *9 / 4

Despite coming off a Big Ten championship and a College Football Playoff appearance, the Wolverines still feel overlooked heading into this season. Despite losing a boatload of quality players, including Aidan Hutchinson, David Ojabo, Daxton Hill, and a total of seven defensive starters to the NFL, as well as running back Hassan Haskins, head coach Jim Harbaugh insisted his troops were “scary good” after the spring game, and is committed to winning a national championship. However, after winning its first Big Ten title for the first time since 2004 last season, a return to the norm appears to be in the offing in 2022. Like brethren Michigan State, the Wolves jumped from a 2-win unit in 2020 to double-digit wins (12) last season. Teams accomplishing such a feat often take huge steps backward the following season. Buyer beware.

PLAY ON: vs. Michigan State (10/29)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Wolverines are 3-17 SU in their final two games of the season since 2012.

MICHIGAN STATE – RETURN TO SENDER – 7.5 W – *5 / 9

The Spartans rose from a 2-win squad in 2020 to an 11-victory team in 2021 under second-year head coach Mel Tucker, finishing in the AP Top 10 poll. But like big brother Michigan, we expect a return to the norm in 2022 for MSU. It starts with a defense that yielded 46 YPG more last season than in 2020, along with a secondary that ranked 85th in pass efficiency defense as Sparty actually allowed more yards than they gained in 2021. On the other side of the ball, QB Payton Thorne won’t have the luxury of Kenneth Walker III in the backfield to keep defenses honest. You know the saying, “What goes up”…

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Indiana (11/19)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The last time the Spartans won more than 10 games in a season (2015) they went 3-9 the following year.

OHIO STATE – POISED FOR PAYBACK – 10.5 W – *6 / 8

For the first time in four years – and the only time under Ryan Day – the Buckeyes failed to make their way to the Big Ten championship game last season. It proved to be a costly flub when they finished No. 5 in the CFP final poll. Uncharacteristically, OSU has finished ninth in the conference each of the past two seasons in total defense. As a result, Day brought in four new assistant coaches, including former Oklahoma State DC Jim Knowles. Nonetheless, the Buckeyes are loaded with returning player experience, including star QB CJ Stroud, a Heisman Trophy nominee last season, along with sophomore RB TreVeyon Henderson, and junior WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. And for the first time since 1995, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will travel to the Horseshoe, looking to snap a four-game-series losing skein.

PLAY ON: vs. Michigan (11/26)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Buckeyes are 24-0 in games versus .900 or fewer opponents under Ryan Day.

PENN STATE – FRESHLY MINTED – 8.5 W – *7 / 4

Midway through the 2021 college football season, Penn State gave James Franklin a 10-year contract extension with a potential value of $85 million. $70 million of Franklin’s money is guaranteed, though most doubt Franklin earned such a contract. You can count us as one of the doubters. The Lions lost six out of their last eight games in 2021. They actually went backward statistically, both on offense and defense, yet managed to improve both SU and ATS. And that’s a big no-no in our books, as teams meeting these criteria almost always take a step back the following season. So much for that big fat extension.

PASS

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Franklin is 4-18 SU and 5-15-2 ATS away versus greater than .666 opponents.

RUTGERS – OPERATION INTELLECT – 4 W – *6 / 6

Greg Schiano’s Knights were sitting pretty when they opened the 2021 season on a 3-0 winning note. However, suddenly sitting at 5-5 in mid-November, with a pair of season-ending games ahead, they folded like a cheap card table. But then fate played its card when Texas A&M was forced to back out of the prestigious Gator Bowl due to COVID protocols, and the Knights were accepted as a replacement team with a 5-7 record thanks to its outstanding Academic Progress Rate scores. Sure, they were waxed by Wake Forest, but it didn’t matter – the season was already a success. With just 12 starters back, they’ll need more than just a studious cast in 2022.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Michigan (11/5)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Greg Schiano is 16-4-1 ATS as a non-conference pick or dog with Rutgers.

ILLINOIS – POWER DOWN – 4.5 W – *7 / 6

The Illini returned 17 scholarship seniors on last year’s roster, and it nearly got them to a bowl game, when a 4-3 finish wasn’t enough to overcome a 1-4 start. The bad news this season is the senior throng is now history, and Bret Bielema is now faced with a cast of the fewest returning production in the Big Ten this season. Making matters worse is this year’s Transfer Portal yielded little-to-no support. After finishing with one of the worst offenses in the nation in 2021, new OC Barry Lunney Jr. was brought in from UTSA to jump-start the attack. Former transfer QBs Tommy DeVito and Artur Sitkowski will draw straws for the starting job.

PLAY ON: vs. Iowa (10/8)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Bret Bielema is 1-9 ATS when coming off a SU underdog win and facing a .700 or fewer opponent.

IOWA – PERMANENCE – 7.5 W – *8 / 7

Despite suffering its 13th four-plus loss season since 2005, Iowa finished in the AP Poll for the fourth straight season, which is the longest streak under head coach Kirk Ferentz. One of the reasons is Iowa is 22-6 in its last 28 rivalry trophy games (Iowa State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin). Head scratchily, the Hawkeyes somehow improved from 6 wins to 10 last season despite slipping offensively and defensively in overall scoring and yardage on both sides of the ball. Ferentz completed his 23rd season as Iowa’s head football coach in 2021 and is the longest-tenured active head coach in college football. Iowa is the only school in the country to have just two head football coaches since 1979 (Hayden Fry 1979-98). And speaking of continuity, returning QB Spencer Petras had started 17 consecutive games before he was injured last season.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Iowa State (9/10)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Iowa underclassmen made 192 team-starts last season, the third most in the FBS.

MINNESOTA – EXPERIENCE THE FEELING – 7.5 W – *6 / 6

The Gophers were on the opposite end of the EXPERIENCE THE FEELING poll last season with just under 12% of all their starts made by underclassmen. That figures to serve P.J. Fleck well in 2022, as he welcomes a team deep with returning experience. Among the returnees are all three leading RBs, each of whom went down with season-ending injuries. Meanwhile, offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarocca returns, after stints with West Virginia and Penn State the past two seasons. Ciarocca served as the Gophers’ OC in 2019 when Minnesota won 11 games behind an explosive offense that averaged 34 PPG. With QB Tanner Morgan back after tossing for over 3,200 yards and 30 TDs last season, the chemistry couldn’t be better.

PLAY ON: at Illinois (10/15)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: P.J. Fleck is 6-0 ATS away versus .800 or greater opponents.

NEBRASKA – CAT ‘O NINE LIVES – 7.5 W – *7 / 5

So, what happens when your coach who hasn’t had a winning season in his four-year term comes off the worst season in his tenure? The school extends his contract, of course. One likely reason is that all nine of the Cornhusker losses last year were by single-digits. Another is that the team improved its stats on both sides of the ball – both scoring and statistically – over 2020’s effort. Yes, Scott Frost is still squarely on the hot seat, and working for less money. But he got a reprieve, and with it he will welcome former Texas QB Casey Thompson with open arms. Get on him early.
POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at Purdue (10/15)
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Nebraska will face losing foes in five of its first six games, and winning foes in five of its six final games this season.

NORTHWESTERN – THORNS AND ROSES – 4 W – *9 / 5

Things were so bad for the Northwestern offense last season they finished with the third-worst Red Zone offense – behind UMass! Six signal callers have taken snaps for the Wildcats since Clayton Thorson graduated in 2019. In those three years, they’ve combined to throw for just 3,532 yards and 19 TDs. The hope is that homegrown 3* prospect Jack Lausch, a former Notre Dame commit with an outfielder’s arm, can calm the QB woes. He’ll need to beat out last year’s starter, Ryan Hlinski. Either way, it won’t be a bed of roses for the Wildcats, not with a schedule from late September to mid-November laced with 8 consecutive foes that played in bowl games last season.

PLAY ON: at Iowa (10/29)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald is 9-1 ATS as a dog with revenge versus .500 or fewer opponents.

PURDUE – BALANCING ACT – 7.5 W – *7 / 8

The Boilermakers bounced back from a 2-win effort in a shortened 2020 campaign with 9-wins for the first time since 2003. It was only their second winning effort in ten years, and it concluded with an impressive 48-45 overtime win over Tennessee in the Music City Bowl as a 7.5-point underdog behind a short-handed, and banged-up team. After tossing for 534 yards and 5 TDs in the bowl victory, QB Aidan O’Connell returns in 2022, but his main target, David Bell, is off to the NFL. Jeff Brohm knows his team will need to develop a ground game (three straight seasons 85 RPG or less) if they wish to become a viable threat.

PLAY ON: at Minnesota (10/1)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Jeff Brohm is 20-6 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points, including 10-0 ATS off a loss.

WISCONSIN – STEADFAST AND FANCY-FREE – 8.5 W – *5 / 3

After a 1-3 start, which concluded with a blowout home loss to Michigan, the Badgers went 8-1 in their final nine games to finish 9-4 with a bowl win over Arizona State. Although they didn’t win the Big Ten West again, they did create a solid foundation for the 2022 season. For openers, they capped the campaign with the top-rated overall defense in the FBS, one that allowed a season-best 4.1 Yards Per Play. While RB Braelon Allen is one of the top backs in the land, QB Graham Mertz has been inconsistent. Perhaps new OC Bobby Engram, who reunites with Paul Chryst from their days at Pitt, will turn him back around.

PLAY AGAINST: at Nebraska (11/19)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Badgers surrendered 1.8 points per game in the first quarter last season, tied for the lowest in the FBS with Georgia.

Meet the Experts: Marc Lawrence

Lawrence Prezman sits down with Marc Lawrence to discuss his career in the sports betting business. Marc has been a professional handicapper for over 40 years, and is celebrating the 30th anniversary of his Playbook preseason guide in 2022.

**************************************************

Meet the Author

A contrarian by nature, Marc Lawrence loves ferreting out lives dogs that stand a good chance of winning the game. His “Woody Hayes” approach to handicapping is simple: Hayes’ contention was that when you pass the ball three things can happen, and two of them are bad. In the same vein, when you bet on a favorite three things can happen and two of them are bad. Hence, when you bet on a live dog three things can happen and two of them are good. Marc is a 45-year veteran of the sports betting industry, having won more documented top-10 handicapping achievement awards than anyone in the nation – including winning the Stardust Football Invitational in 2005.

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

• Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
• Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
• Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!