Camellia Bowl Predictions : Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois Free Picks, Best Bets 12/23
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Northern Illinois Huskies Best Bets: Camellia Bowl Preview & Prediction
Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers flowery predictions and free picks on The Camellia Bowl being played on December 23rd, between Arkansas State and Northern Illinois. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top predictions here.
Arkansas State started the season losing 73-0 at Oklahoma. Their 6th win came on 11/18, by the score of 77-31.
Northern Illinois (NIU) surprised Boston College in overtime to start 2023 before falling to 1-4. They won their last two games to achieve this bowl berth. It’s bonus time for two schools who both finished 3-9 a year ago.
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Camellia Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Arkansas State Overview
At first glance, Arkansas State was not as good as a year ago. They rebounded nicely in the point ratio, but the rush ratio was 4.3-4.75 and the pass defense was lights-out bad at 69%.
Freshman QB Raynor was solid, at 59% with just six interceptions. His OL allowed 30 sacks, but he survived. He might be a major run threat in this game, and that skill set is important if the Red Wolves are to come out on top.
Two RB’s had more than solid seasons, but RB Wallace missed the final game and his status must be checked out. There’s some WR variety.
Dreadful Passing Defense, Questionable Run Defense
The run defense will be tested vs. NIU and that could be an issue. Only twice did teams complete under 63.7% through the air. We’ll see what the Montgomery weather looks like, but if there’s no issue, then Arkansas State might have a defensive problem.
The Red Wolves had a modest 24 defensive sacks, but their top pass rusher is out. Kicking was decent at 15-20.
Camellia Bowl Picks: Northern Illinois Strengths and Weaknesses
I’ve been down on NIU’s Head Coach and this team was completely unreliable when favored. They did have a signature win over Ohio U which seemed to give them some confidence down the stretch. Their rush ratio was solid at 5.05-4.2. RB Brown was the catalyst, at 1,164-6.2, and ten rushing TD’s. Rocky Lombardi has been their QB forever. He hit a modest 57.4%, with a 10-5 ratio. He’s elusive enough to get a few rushing yards. There’s only one reliable target of note. WR Rudolph will be tough to stop, and it’s a good thing that he withdrew his name from the portal.
NIU might try a run-first approach (weather permitted) even though they will be facing a porous pass defense, because they have the edge in run blocking vs. the Red Wolves. The sack ratio was 22-16. Kicking was 11-15. The return game defense is near outstanding.
Camellia Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:
Arkansas State must make things as easy as possible for its young QB by establishing the run game. Because NIU has modest pass rush numbers, QB Raynor may be able to extend plays. Something has to get better defensively.
NIU’s first task is to stop the Arkansas State rush attack. Do that, and it plays into NIU’s hands, as not noted above is the fact that NIU did a fairly good job vs. opposing QB’s. It would help if QB Lombardi was more accurate, but he’s not been turnover prone, and should fare better vs. this defense (charted at 18-27, for 215 yards).
Camellia Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions
NIU has held steady as a one-point underdog (touched 1.5/2 very early in the process). The matchup data disagrees, believing the Huskies have edges in several key areas. All I ask is that Head Coach Thomas Hammond stay out of the way.
The Pick: Camellia Bowl Prediction!
I like NIU to take care of business in the Camellia Bowl. Take ’em moneyline.
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