2024 NCAA Tournament Odds | Which Teams Fit the Championship Formula?
Four Teams Fit the NCAA Tournament Mold
At this time of year, everyone is looking for tips to fill out their bracket: Which 12-seed will upset a 5-seed? Which No. 1 seed will be the first to get eliminated?
Dating back to 2000, there has been a tried-and-true formula for picking the team(s) that are capable of cutting down the net at the beginning of April. Entering the 2024 NCAA Tournament, four teams fit the bill with another four teams sitting just outside the criteria.
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2024 NCAA Tournament Odds
Odds below courtesy of DraftKings Sports Book as of Tuesday, March 19:
| UConn | +360 |
| Houston | +550 |
| Purdue | +700 |
| Arizona | +1200 |
| North Carolina | +1300 |
| Tennessee | +1600 |
| Auburn | +1700 |
| Iowa State | +2000 |
| Kentucky | +2200 |
| Marquette | +3000 |
| Creighton | +3000 |
| Baylor | +3000 |
| Illinois | +3500 |
| Duke | +3500 |
| Alabama | +4000 |
| Kansas | +5000 |
| Gonzaga | +6000 |
| Florida | +6000 |
| BYU | +7000 |
| Wisconsin | +7000 |
| Saint Mary’s | +7000 |
| Texas Tech | +9000 |
| San Diego State | +9000 |
| New Mexico | +10000 |
| Nebraska | +10000 |
| Michigan State | +10000 |
| Texas | +10000 |
| Mississippi State | +12000 |
| Clemson | +12000 |
| TCU | +12000 |
| Florida Atlantic | +14000 |
| Washington State | +14000 |
| South Carolina | +14000 |
| Northwestern | +16000 |
| Nevada | +16000 |
| Texas A&M | +16000 |
| North Carolina State | +18000 |
| Drake | +18000 |
| Dayton | +20000 |
| Oregon | +20000 |
| Colorado State | +25000 |
| Utah State | +25000 |
KenPom’s NCAA Tournament Formula
KenPom’s college basketball efficiency numbers are the most widely-respected metric in the space. Bettors use them. Oddsmakers use them. Teams use them.
With the exception of two teams, every championship squad since 2000 was top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and those teams played an average strength of schedule of 22.5 in the country. The two exceptions were UConn in 2011 and UConn in 2014.
Four teams enter the 2024 NCAA Tournament inside KenPom’s top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency:
- UConn (No. 34 strength of schedule)
- Arizona (No. 26 strength of schedule)
- Auburn (No. 53 strength of schedule)
- Houston (No. 14 strength of schedule)
There are four teams that just missed the cut as 20/20 teams, but they are close enough to the criteria that they are certainly worth mentioning:
- Purdue (No. 4 Offense / No. 21 Defense / No. 4 SOS)
- Creighton (No. 12 Offense / No. 24 Defense No. 23 SOS)
- Marquette (No. 21 Offense / No. 19 Defense / No. 7 SOS)
- North Carolina (No. 24 Offense / No. 6 Defense / No. 21 SOS)
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track moneylines, point spreads, totals and betting percentages for a variety of domestic and international leagues. Find free NCAAB picks and odds!
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