Best NFL Player Props Week 9: Top Picks & TD Bets
Looking for the best NFL player props for Week 9? WagerTalk features eight NFL player prop picks from handicapper Steve Seagrave, covering quarterback passing yards, running back rushing props, wide receiver receiving yards, and anytime touchdown scorers. Review the featured selections and odds below, followed by matchup analysis explaining the reasoning behind each bet.
Best NFL Player Props for Week 9 – Quick Picks
Here is a complete breakdown of Steve Seagrave’s eight NFL Week 9 player prop selections for the November 8, 2026 slate.
| Player | NFL Player Prop Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | Under 248.5 Passing Yards | -115 |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | Under 29.5 Passing Attempts | -112 |
| Tee Higgins (CIN | Over 77.5 Receiving Yards | -114 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | Over 92.5 Receiving Yards | -114 |
| Jonah Coleman (DEN) | Over 55.5 Rushing Yards | -114 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | Over 59.5 Rushing Yards | -117 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | Anytime Touchdown Scorer | -127 |
| Tyler Warren (IND) | Anytime Touchdown Scorer | +210 |
Odds reflect the originally published Week 9 selections and are not live prices. Player prop lines and availability vary by sportsbook.
Best NFL Player Prop Picks and Predictions for Week 9
Our Week 8 NFL player prop analysis examines recent production, projected opportunities, defensive matchups and potential game scripts. The selections below cover several popular NFL betting markets, including passing yards, completions, rushing attempts and receiving yards.
Caleb Williams Chicago Bears UNDER 248.5 Passing Yards (-115) – Buccaneers vs Bears
Caleb Williams has actually covered this line in 4/5 games during the 2026 campaign, but he just snuck past this number with 247 yards last week against the Seattle Seahawks.
Now Williams has to deal with a Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense that ranks top 10 in passing yards allowed per game (205.9) and passing yards allowed per attempt (6.1).
Since the return of Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay has utilized a run centric approach that has chewed up clock with a methodical pace. We have seen several opposing quarterbacks fall well short of their respective passing yard lines against the Bucs including Michael Penix (125), Bryce Young (163), Jordan Love (197) and Kyler Murray (168).
Even Joe Burrow fell well short of his projected line with only 254 passing yards. Tampa Bay will continue to utilize their running game until it fails them, and they have done a great job limiting opponents to shorter gains through the air.
Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 29.5 Passing Attempts (-112) – Buccaneers vs Bears
Baker Mayfield made history last week while beating the Atlanta Falcons 16-0 despite not completing a single pass as his running backs combined for 310 yards on the ground.
That makes a combined 14 pass attempts for Mayfield across two starts since returning from injury making you have to question if his hand injury is actually fully healed.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has allowed the 3rd fewest pass attempts in the NFL with an average of only 28.5 per game. We have seen 5 of the last 7 opposing quarterbacks fall short of their respective pass attempts line against Chicago with only Sam Darnold and Michael Penix just sneaking past their numbers with 33 and 34 attempts respectively.
Tampa Bay will continue to utilize their running game until it fails them as they could wind up playing without their top receiving option in Emeka Egbuka for another game.
Jonah Coleman Denver Broncos OVER 55.5 Rushing Yards (-114) – Broncos vs Panthers
Jonah Coleman returned from the IR a few weeks back and he’s recorded 41 and 54 rushing yards, but he played 67% of the offensive snaps last week while seeing all 10 of the Denver Broncos plays inside the 10-yard line. JK Dobbins played ONLY 21% of the snaps in Week 8 and RJ Harvey has landed on the IR himself now.
The Carolina Panthers rank bottom 10 at preventing explosive plays while also allowing the 9th most yards before contact per attempt. The Green Bay Packers didn’t have very much success against Carolina last week but in the prior game the Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back group combined for a staggering 246 yards on the ground in the prior contest.
Bo Nix has been very inconsistent under center so the Broncos utilizing the running game on the road makes all the sense int he world.
Kyren Williams Los Angeles Rams OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards (-117) – Rams vs Commanders
Kyren Williams has covered this line in 4 of his last 7 games while falling just short with 56, 50 and 49 yards in the three games where he fell short.
After starting the season 2-4, the Los Angeles Rams has decided to run the ball early & often and its worked wonders as they beat the Los Angeles Chargers 24-9 and the Las Vegas Raiders 35-21.
Williams has logged 16 carries in both of those games included the Raiders game where he averaged 6.2 yards per rush attempt. Now Williams gets an opportunity to feast on a Washington Commanders run defense that ranks 31st in opponent rush success rate.
The Commanders kept a lid on a banged-up Eagles running back room last week, but we have also seen Christian McCaffrey record 64 yards and Jonathan Taylor log 95 yards. The Rams are -4.5 road favorites in a game with a total 47.5 which sets up an ideal game script for Williams to beat his number.
Tee Higgins Cincinnati Bengals OVER 77.5 Receiving Yards (-114) – Bengals vs Falcons
Tee Higgins has been crushing this line with 90+ receiving yards in 5 of his last 6 games including each of his last two games where he finished with 148 yards against the Baltimore Ravens and 155 yards against the Tennessee Titans.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has run man coverage at the 10th highest rate in the NFL and Higgins is the #1 rated wide receiver against that coverage according to PFF.
Atlanta also ranks 24th in DVOA in defending #2 wide receivers while allowing an average of 54.6 per game. We have seen several opposing #2 wide receivers eclipse their respective lines against the Falcons including Luther Burden III (95), Rashod Bateman (62), Devaughn Vele (54), Matthew Golden (100) and Jalen Coker (66).
Higgins should continue to build his case for the best wide receiver #2 in the league while feasting on a defense he’s thrived against in the past.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Seattle Seahawks OVER 92.5 Receiving Yards (-114) – Cardinals vs Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has recorded 102+ receiving yards in 7/8 games (88%) during the 2026 campaign while landing 76 yards in his lone under and averaging 123.1 yards per game.
Drew Lock is back in action at starting quarterback for the Seahawks and he connected with Smith-Njigba for 9 catches for 155 and three touchdowns against the Arizona Cardinals back in Week 2.
JSN also caught 5/6 targets for 93 yards against Arizona in their final head-to-head meeting of the 2025-26 campaign. We also saw Malik Nabers torch the Cardinals for 112 receiving yards in early October.
The Cardinals have allowed the 11th most yards to opposing wide receivers with an average of 151.5 per game. Arizona has also allowed the most yards per pass attempt in the NFL. Lock loves to for JSN and the Cardinals defense doesn’t have anyone who can keep a lid on him.
Best Anytime Touchdown Scorer Props for NFL Week 9
Anytime touchdown scorer bets offer a different approach to NFL player props. Rather than focusing on yardage or receptions, these selections consider scoring opportunities, offensive roles and opposing defensive weaknesses.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Seattle Seahawks (-127) – Cardinals vs Seahawks
Drew Lock is back in as starting quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks and he had an incredible connection with Jaxon Smith-Njigba back in Week 2 against the Arizona Cardinals where the wide receiver recorded 9 receptions for a season high 155 yards and three touchdowns.
The Cardinals have allowed the 3rd most yards per pass attempt and 4th most receiving touchdowns with an average of 2.3 per game. Just last week, Ryan Flournoy scored against Arizona, and we have also seen Jameson Williams (2), Malachi Fields, Mike Evans and Malik Nabers hit paydirt.
Smith-Njigba has found the end zone in 5/7 career games against Arizona and he’s scored in 6/8 games during the 2026 campaign. The Seahawks have dominated the Cardinals in the past and the Lock/JSN connection thrived against them in Week 2.
Tyler Warren Indianapolis Colts (+210) – Cowboys vs Colts
Tyler Warren has already scored three touchdowns during the 2026 campaign despite missing two games and he ranks 2nd in team red zone targets (5) and tied for first in end zone targets (2).
Warren is also a threat to score on the ground as he’s logged three rushing attempts including a touchdown from the one-yard line against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed a touchdown on nearly 69% of their opponents red area possessions and they rank 25th in receiving touchdowns allowed with an average of 1.9 per game.
Trey McBride just scored against Dallas last week and tight end Isaiah Likely scored twice against them earlier in the season. The Cowboys are -5.5-point road favorites with a huge total of 51.5 that sets up a negative game script for the Cardinals in what should be a higher scoring game where they are forced into throwing situations.
More Free NFL Picks and Predictions
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All selections and odds above are historical Week 9 recommendations. Confirm current player availability, betting lines and sportsbook rules before wagering.
