UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan Picks, Predictions and Odds October 31, 2026

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC Fight Night picks and predictions come from WagerTalk UFC handicapper Andy Lang for October 31, 2026 with the main event headlined by Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan in a lightweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, October 31	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan
Rounds:	2.5 (Over -102 / Under -118)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	Paramount+

UFC Fight Night Undercard Predictions

Randy Brown (+245) vs Jacobe Smith (-257) 

This is a classic matchup between a fighter on the way up and one on the way down. Brown has  always had the physical tools to be successful. He’s long, athletic, and has good striking ability, but he consistently leaves you wanting more.

He’s now lost two straight, and his recent  performances have lacked aggression and urgency. He looks tentative and doesn’t seem  particularly motivated to push for finishes. 

Smith, on the other hand, has looked fantastic. He has the athleticism to match Brown and has  finished every opponent he’s faced on Contender Series and in the UFC.

This is definitely a step  up in competition, but I think Smith will gain confidence once he realizes Brown isn’t going to put much pressure on him. That should allow Smith to get comfortable with his striking and start  mixing in takedowns.

The one concern is Smith’s cardio if this reaches the third round, although  he has gone the distance and won a decision before. Jacobe Smith at -257 is the pick. 

Yana Santos (+223) vs Luana Santos (-233) 

At these prices, I have to take Yana. Luana doesn’t generate a ton of striking volume, and much of her success comes from controlling opponents against the fence and accumulating ground  control time. That’s effective, but it doesn’t necessarily make her a dominant favorite in this  matchup. 

Yana moves well on the feet, can circle away from pressure, and has the ability to create her own control time against the fence. I think she’ll be able to keep this competitive and make Luana  work for every position.

This feels like a fight that could be decided by a few close rounds, and I  don’t want to lay a big price on either fighter. Yana Santos at +223 is the underdog pick. 

Ode Osbourne (-108) vs Cody Durden (+105) 

I like Ode here, provided he can survive the early portion of the fight. Durden has talked about retirement, and while he can look good early with his striking and offensive pressure, he has a 

tendency to fall apart quickly once the second round begins. His cardio becomes a major  problem, and his effectiveness drops considerably. 

Osbourne is coming off a decision loss to an opponent who was subsequently flagged for PEDs, but I think he’s in a good position to bounce back here. He should have the better conditioning and be able to increase his activity as Durden slows down.

If Ode gets through the first round without taking too much damage, I expect him to take over with more volume and offense in  rounds two and three. Ode Osbourne at -108 is the pick. 

Zach Reese (-257) vs Mickey Gall (+245) 

Reese has regressed since joining the UFC, and I’m honestly not sure what he’s particularly good at anymore. His durability has become questionable, his striking is average, and his cardio hasn’t  looked very good. His ground game is still solid, though, and that should be enough against this  opponent. 

Gall has major problems of his own. His durability is terrible, his striking isn’t good, and while he does have submission ability, I don’t see him consistently getting the takedowns necessary to put himself in position to use it.

This is an ugly matchup between two fighters I don’t have much confidence in, but Reese should have enough advantages to get the job done. Reese at -257 is the pick, although it’s an ugly one. 

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (-223) vs Farman Hasanov (+215) 

Lebosnoyani is a seasoned veteran with excellent striking skills. He’s a dynamic power puncher with great footwork, strong defensive awareness, and the ability to create offense from different angles. The biggest question in this matchup is his takedown defense, because that’s essentially  Hasanov’s entire game. 

Hasanov depends heavily on getting takedowns and establishing control. When opponents make him work for those positions, he starts to tire, and his effectiveness drops off. Lebosnoyani might  give up a takedown or two, but I expect him to make Hasanov work extremely hard to keep him  down.

As the fight progresses, Hasanov’s cardio and striking defense should become major  problems. I don’t think he’ll be able to handle Lebosnoyani’s offense once he starts slowing down. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani by finish is the pick. 

Francis Marshall (-223) vs Dakota Hope (+215) 

Hope is a big power puncher who comes out swinging for the fences, looking to end fights with heavy shots. The problem is that his aggressive style leaves him vulnerable to takedowns, and that’s exactly where Marshall wants this fight. Marshall is a wrestler who relies on takedowns,  ground control, and wearing opponents down. 

Hope also doesn’t have particularly long reach, which could make it difficult for him to close the distance and land those big punches without exposing himself.

I expect Marshall to take advantage of Hope’s aggressive striking, get underneath his punches, and bring the fight to the  ground. Once there, Marshall should be able to control the action and accumulate time on top. Francis Marshall at -223 is the pick. 

Rodrigo Sezinando (-156) vs Theodor Berggren (+150) 

Neither fighter particularly impresses me. Sezinando probably has the better ground game and has faced stronger competition, while Berggren looks more comfortable working in the clinch. There isn’t a huge difference in overall ability between these two, and I don’t see a reason to be overly confident in either side. 

I think Berggren can have success with his striking and make this a competitive fight in the clinch. If he can keep Sezinando from consistently establishing control on the ground, he should  have opportunities to win rounds.

At these odds, I would rather take my chances with the  underdog than lay -156 on a fighter I’m not particularly impressed with. Theodor Berggren at  +150 is the pick. 

Julian Erosa (+163) vs Jeong Yeong Lee (-165) 

Lee appears to have made some improvements in both his durability and cardio. His last fight against Santos was an absolute war, and although he lost, he was still there competing until the  very end.

That was encouraging because it showed he can absorb punishment and maintain his  offense over three rounds. His takedown defense remains a concern, but I’m not convinced Erosa  has the wrestling ability to exploit that weakness consistently. 

Erosa looks like a fighter nearing the end of his career. He needs to find an early finish because  when fights extend into the later rounds, he starts breaking down and his striking volume disappears. I think Lee can survive the early danger, maintain a higher pace, and outwork Erosa  as the fight progresses. Jeong Yeong Lee at -165 is the pick. 

Nick Klein (+250) vs Joe Kropschot (-245) 

Klein has about half a round to one round of effective cardio before everything starts falling apart. Once he gets tired, his defense deteriorates, he becomes extremely vulnerable, and  opponents have been able to finish him. His striking isn’t particularly good, and while he likes to  rely on his ground game, that approach becomes much more difficult against UFC-caliber  competition. 

Kropschot showed tremendous toughness as an underdog on Contender Series. He’s not  particularly fast, and his striking defense leaves something to be desired, but he’s durable, has a  solid ground game, and his cardio is significantly better than Klein’s.

I expect Klein to have some early moments before his conditioning becomes a major issue. Once that happens, Kropschot  should be able to take over and find the finish. Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance is the preferred  play, with Kropschot by finish as the pick. 

Piera Rodriguez (-245) vs Talita Alencar (+223) 

Alencar has made significant improvements since joining the UFC. She came in with a strong grappling background, but her striking and cardio have developed considerably.

Her biggest problem remains her size, as she’s undersized for the division. Still, she’s found ways to outwork opponents in her last two fights and come away with victories. 

Rodriguez has that same relentless mentality, and she showed it in her recent win over Sam  Hughes. Outworking Hughes is not an easy thing to do, but Rodriguez managed to accomplish it. 

I think she’s the better striker in this matchup, and she has the takedown defense to prevent Alencar from consistently getting her grappling going. Rodriguez should be able to neutralize Alencar’s offense while landing the cleaner, more effective strikes. Piera Rodriguez at -245 is the pick. 

Tainara Lisboa (+426) vs Lucia Szabova (-456) 

Lisboa can have some success working against the fence, where she uses the clinch and short inside strikes to create offense. Outside of those positions, though, her game is limited. She doesn’t strike particularly well at range, has very little ground game, and her cardio becomes a  problem as fights progress. 

Szabova can be a slow starter, but she has excellent kicks from distance, a good ground game, and the ability to find finishes late in fights. I think she’ll be able to survive whatever early success Lisboa has in the clinch and gradually take control.

As Lisboa begins to tire, Szabova should have more opportunities to land damaging strikes and exploit her weaknesses on the  ground. Lucia Szabova by third-round finish is the pick.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Renato Moicano (+113) vs Tom Nolan (-117)

Moicano is a tough fighter to figure out. He’s at his best on the ground, but his wrestling isn’t particularly strong, which makes it difficult for him to consistently get fights into his preferred  position.

On the feet, he’s not a major knockout threat, but he can pepper opponents with jabs, accumulate points, and use his striking to create opportunities to get the fight to the ground. 

Nolan’s game has evolved significantly throughout his UFC career. He used to be a wild striker  who relied on his offense, but he’s developed a much more effective wrestling game, using takedowns and control time to win fights.

That adjustment has resulted in five straight victories.  If Nolan is the more physical fighter, he should be able to control the clinch and have success with takedowns.

Moicano is dangerous in scrambles and can reverse positions on the ground, so Nolan will have to be careful. Ultimately, I think Nolan’s physicality and wrestling will allow  him to accumulate more control time and win rounds, provided he avoids getting caught in a submission. Nolan at -117 is the slight pick.

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