New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays ALDS Game 1 Picks, Predictions and Best Bets For October 3, 2026
A combined .163 batting average, a .223 on-base percentage, and just three home runs across 129 at-bats. That is what the current New York Yankees roster has managed against Drew Rasmussen, and he takes the ball for Tampa Bay in Game 1 of the ALDS on October 3. Standing across from him is Gerrit Cole, a postseason veteran with a 2.77 career playoff ERA, leading a Yankees team fresh off a Wild Card sweep of Boston but still waiting on a healthy Aaron Judge.
Our Yankees vs Rays prediction breaks down the pitching matchup, the line movement, the injury picture, and the best bets for the series opener at Tampa Bay. For more expert plays throughout October, check out our free MLB picks.
Yankees vs Rays Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Tampa Bay Rays (-136)
- Run Line Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+163)
- Total Pick: Under 7 (-115)
- Projected Final Score: Rays 4, Yankees 2
Odds and Line Movement for Yankees vs Rays
Tampa Bay opened as a -133 favorite on September 30, with New York at +110. The public has poured onto the Yankees since, with New York drawing as much as 94 percent of the money and 67 percent of the tickets. Even so, the Rays’ price has gotten more expensive, touching -141 twice on October 2 before settling at -136, with the Yankees at +113. A favorite strengthening while the underdog collects the overwhelming majority of the money is a signal worth noting.
The total has held firm at 7 throughout, but the pricing tells the story. The earliest recorded number had the under at -122, and the under has stayed juiced between -115 and -120 all morning on October 2, even with 98 percent of the money and 87 percent of the tickets on the over. Follow every adjustment before first pitch with our live odds.
Opening Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | +110 | Over 7 (+101) |
| Tampa Bay Rays | -133 | Under 7 (-122) |
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | +113 | +1.5 | Over 7 (-104) |
| Tampa Bay Rays | -136 | -1.5 (+163) | Under 7 (-115) |
Line Movement – Spread
| Date | NY Yankees | Tampa Bay | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02 | +113 | -136 | NYY 90%, NYY 67% |
| 10/02 | +113 | -137 | NYY 90%, NYY 67% |
| 10/02 | +112 | -136 | NYY 90%, NYY 65% |
| 10/02 | +117 | -141 | NYY 94%, NYY 65% |
| 10/02 | +113 | -136 | NYY 94%, NYY 65% |
| 10/02 | +117 | -141 | NYY 94%, NYY 65% |
| 10/01 | +113 | -136 | NYY 87%, NYY 60% |
| 10/01 | +111 | -134 | NYY 87%, NYY 56% |
| 09/30 | +110 | -133 | TB 67%, NYY 50% |
Line Movement – Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02 | 7 (-104) | 7 (-115) | OV 98%, OV 87% |
| 10/02 | 7 (+100) | 7 (-120) | OV 98%, OV 87% |
| 10/02 | 7 (-101) | 7 (-120) | OV 98%, OV 87% |
| 10/02 | 7 (+100) | 7 (-120) | OV 98%, OV 87% |
| 10/02 | 7 (-101) | 7 (-120) | OV 98%, OV 87% |
| 10/02 | 7 (+100) | 7 (-120) | OV 98%, OV 87% |
| 10/02 | 7 (-101) | 7 (-120) | OV 98%, OV 87% |
| 10/02 | 7 (+100) | 7 (-120) | OV 98%, OV 87% |
| 10/02 | 7 (-101) | 7 (-120) | OV 98%, OV 87% |
| 10/02 | 7 (+100) | 7 (-120) | OV 98%, OV 87% |
| 10/02 | 7 (-101) | 7 (-120) | OV 98%, OV 87% |
| 10/02 | 7 (+100) | 7 (-120) | OV 98%, OV 87% |
| 10/02 | 7 (-101) | 7 (-120) | OV 98%, OV 87% |
| 10/02 | 7 (+100) | 7 (-120) | OV 98%, OV 87% |
| 10/02 | 7 (-101) | 7 (-120) | OV 98%, OV 87% |
| 10/02 | 7 (+100) | 7 (-120) | OV 98%, OV 87% |
| 10/02 | 7 (+101) | 7 (-122) | OV 100%, OV 89% |
New York vs Tampa Bay Key Matchups and Handicap
Game 1 of this ALDS brings a true postseason pitching duel, two rosters that split the season series almost evenly, and a Yankees lineup that may be missing its biggest bat. Tampa Bay won the season series 7-6, while New York found success late in the matchup and arrives on a roll after sweeping Boston in the Wild Card round by a combined score of 18-2.
Rays Ace Drew Rasmussen Owns This Lineup
Rasmussen was excellent during the regular season, finishing 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 174 strikeouts. His history against this Yankees group is even more impressive. The current New York roster owns a combined .163 average, .223 OBP, and .256 slugging percentage against him across 129 at-bats, with just three home runs. That kind of sustained control over an opponent is exactly what bettors want to see from a Game 1 starter at home.
Yankees Turn to a Battle-Tested Cole
Gerrit Cole went 10-9 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 131 strikeouts in his return from Tommy John surgery. Those numbers are solid rather than dominant, but Cole brings a wealth of October experience and a 2.77 career playoff ERA. Tampa Bay has had more success against him than New York has had against Rasmussen, batting .235 with a .293 OBP and .341 slugging percentage over 170 at-bats. Yandy DÃaz and Cedric Mullins have produced some of the stronger individual results against Cole.
NYY Lineup Without a Healthy Judge
New York has to plan around Aaron Judge’s uncertain status as he works back from a right calf strain. Judge missed the Wild Card Series and had not yet progressed to full baserunning as of the latest update. Without him, Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger become even more important. Rice led the Yankees with 41 home runs and 97 RBI, while Bellinger hit .264. Asking that group to carry the offense against a pitcher who has already dominated it is a tall order.
Tampa Bay Power and Speed
The Rays counter with Junior Caminero, who posted 42 home runs and 101 RBI to anchor the middle of the lineup. Chandler Simpson adds a different dimension after hitting .306, though his recent foot issue is worth monitoring because so much of his value comes from speed. If Simpson is limited, Tampa Bay may lean even more heavily on Caminero’s power and on hitters like DÃaz and Mullins who have handled Cole well.
Rays Bullpen Depth Concerns
Tampa Bay does bring pitching injuries into the series. Shane McClanahan is unavailable, and relievers Garrett Cleavinger and Tyler Wells are working back from injuries, which could affect bullpen depth. That makes a deep outing from Rasmussen especially valuable, and given his track record against this lineup, the Rays have reason to believe he can provide it.
NYY vs TB Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay won the regular season series 7-6.
- The Yankees swept Boston in the Wild Card round, outscoring the Red Sox 18-2 across two games.
- The current Yankees roster is batting .163 with three home runs in 129 at-bats against Drew Rasmussen.
- The Rays are batting .235 with a .341 slugging percentage in 170 at-bats against Gerrit Cole.
- Cole owns a 2.77 career postseason ERA.
- Rasmussen finished the regular season 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.
- Tampa Bay moved from -133 to -136 despite New York drawing as much as 94 percent of the money.
- The total has held at 7 with the under juiced as high as -122, even with 98 percent of the money on the over.
NYY vs TB Key Injuries and Notes
- Yankees: OF Aaron Judge (right calf strain) missed the Wild Card Series and had not progressed to full baserunning as of the latest update.
- Rays: SP Shane McClanahan is unavailable.
- Rays: RP Garrett Cleavinger is working back from an injury.
- Rays: RP Tyler Wells is working back from an injury.
- Rays: OF Chandler Simpson is dealing with a recent foot issue that bears watching.
- Yankees: Gerrit Cole is pitching in his first postseason since returning from Tommy John surgery.
Judge’s status is the biggest variable in this game. If he cannot go, New York loses its most dangerous hitter against a pitcher it has already struggled to solve. On the Tampa Bay side, the bullpen injuries put added emphasis on Rasmussen working deep into the game.
New York vs Tampa Bay ATS and Total Picks
Run Line Pick: Rays -1.5 (+163). Tampa Bay has the cleaner setup in Game 1, with Rasmussen’s season-long dominance, home-field advantage, and the uncertainty surrounding Judge all working in the Rays’ favor. The +163 price adds real value for bettors who expect Tampa Bay to win by multiple runs, and a Yankees lineup that has hit .163 against Rasmussen gives that outcome a realistic path.
Total Pick: Under 7 (-115). Two quality starters, a postseason environment, and a Yankees lineup that may be missing Judge all point toward a low-scoring game. The market agrees, keeping the under juiced all morning even as the public loaded up on the over. If Rasmussen continues to handle New York the way he has historically, this game should stay comfortably under the number.
Yankees vs Rays Best Bets
- Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+163)
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay Rays (-136)
- Total: Under 7 (-115)
The Rays on the run line is the top play, offering plus-money value behind a starter who has completely neutralized this Yankees lineup. Tampa Bay on the moneyline is the safer route for bettors who prefer to avoid the margin, and the Under fits a game shaped by quality pitching and a short-handed New York offense.
Final Score Prediction for Yankees vs Rays
Expect a tight, pitching-driven opener in which Rasmussen continues to frustrate the Yankees’ hitters. Cole should keep his team in the game, but Tampa Bay’s lineup has had more success against him, and Caminero’s power gives the Rays the ability to create separation. Look for Tampa Bay to take a 1-0 series lead with a two-run win.
- Projected Final Score: Rays 4, Yankees 2
- Moneyline Pick: Tampa Bay Rays (-136)
- Run Line Pick: Rays -1.5 (+163)
- Total Pick: Under 7 (-115)
