2025 Indy 500 Betting Preview and Predictions

The Indy 500 betting market has seen plenty of changes heading into the race thanks to some notable infractions from high-profile teams and a shocking pole winner. Josef Newgarden is searching for his third-straight victory at the Brickyard, but all eyes are on Team Penske in the lead-up to this race.

Indy 500 Betting Preview

Date and Time	Sunday, May 25 at 12:45pm ET / 9:45am PT
Length	500 Miles (2.5 Miles x 200 Laps)
Weather	Temps in the Low-70s with a 20% Chance of Showers
Defending Champ	Josef Newgarden (x2)
Betting Favorite	Pato O’Ward (+500 at DraftKings)
Pole Sitter	Robert Shwartzman (+800 to Win)

The Penske Penalties

Well, this is awkward, huh? Penalties in motorsports are fairly common as teams and engineers push the boundaries of what they are allowed to do within the mechanical window they are given. They become a much bigger story when penalties are handed out to the guy that literally owns the track and owns the racing league.

Roger Penske has won the Indianapolis 500 a whopping 20 times at the track that he owns, including each of the last two with Newgarden at the helm.

Penske has three cars entered in this year’s race, and the entries from Newgarden and Will Power were found to have modified attenuators during inspection. Those cars will start from the back and they will lose their preferred pit box selection as well as their team strategists (and $100K each).

The Newbie

Robert Shwartzman captured the pole for the Indy 500, and he’s never raced on an oval in his life prior to this past month. The former Formula 1 prospect is the first rookie to win the pole since 1983. His racing team, Prema Racing, is also a relative-rookie at this level and has never prepared an Indy Car to race on an oval.

The Ringer

NASCAR superstar Kyle Larson will be making his second attempt at the Indy 500 after he finished 17th last year. Larson led four laps during the race before serving a penalty on Lap 132 for a speeding penalty on pit road. Larson will be starting on the seventh row for this year’s event.

2025 Indy 500 Betting Prediction

In theory, the Indy 500 betting market is wide open and should present some value. You have a racing superstar in Larson that will attract public money in the betting market. You have a rookie that has never raced on an oval sitting on the pole. You have the two-time defending champ starting in last.

With most eyes focused on Larson, Shwartzman and the Penske drivers, we’ve got our eyes on Larson’s teammate Christian Lundgaard. In his first season with Arrow McLaren, Lundgaard already has the same amount of podium finishes in five races this year (3), than he did in 51 races at Rahal-Letterman over the last three years (3).

Known more for his road racing ability, Lundgaard tends to get forgotten on the ovals but he has a really strong history at the Brickyard. He has improved his start-to-finish position by double digits each of the last three years, including a 13th-place finish last year after starting 28th. His eighth-place starting position this year will be by-far his best starting position in any of his previous attempts at the Indy 500.

With cleaner air at the start of the field, Lundgaard’s job should be much easier this year than it has been in years past with nine rows of cars starting in front of him.

Christian Lundgaard +2000 to win / +600 Top-3

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