2025 Kentucky Derby Picks and Predictions – May 3, 2025
The 151st Kentucky Derby is just around the corner, and excitement is in the air as horse racing enthusiasts gear up for this legendary event. Marco D’Angelo and Sean Alvarez deliver a thorough breakdown of contenders, long shots, and key betting strategies for the 2025 edition of the race.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Top Contenders
Journalism (Post 8)
The current favorite at 3-1, Journalism boasts four wins in five career starts and holds the highest Beyer Speed Figure in the race (108).
This horse displays tactical speed, a crucial asset in a crowded 20-horse field. Journalism’s ability to manage position and pace gives him a significant advantage.
Luxor Cafe (Post 7)
At 15-1, this Japanese-bred horse raises eyebrows due to its lineage from American Pharaoh. Though Japan has yet to secure a Derby win, Luxor Cafe’s exposure to large fields in Japan and long-distance conditioning make it a fascinating contender.
Burnham Square (Post 9)
With 12-1 odds, Burnham Square is known for his strong closing ability. Jockey Brian Hernandez, who won the Derby last year, is expected to bring composure and precision. This horse thrives in fast-paced races where he can overtake tired front-runners.
Sovereignty (Post 4)
This Godolphin-owned horse enters at 5-1. Despite a lackluster recent performance, his earlier victory in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs indicates he can excel under similar conditions. Sired by Into Mischief, he’s well-bred for the Derby’s long distance.
Sandman (Post 17)
Six to one odds reflect Sandman’s consistent track record. However, concerns arise due to his extensive race history (nine starts) potentially capping his developmental upside. He’s a solid closer but may be slightly overvalued due to social media hype from a celebrity part-owner.
2025 Kentucky Derby Long Shots to Watch
Grande (Post 10, 20-1)
A strong candidate due to trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Johnny Velasquez, both Hall of Famers. Grande has shown tactical speed and endurance, essential traits in Derby conditions.
Final Gambit (Post 3, 30-1)
An exciting prospect with just four starts and a sharp transition from synthetic to dirt surfaces. His last race featured a massive leap in performance, hinting at more potential.
Chunk of Gold (Post 20, 30-1)
Purchased for a mere $2,500, this rags-to-riches story could charm bettors. Positioned on the outside, he avoids early jostling and can capitalize on a strong finish.
Publisher (Post 13, 30-1)
Though still a maiden, Publisher has consistently placed and demonstrated strong closing speed. His recent 95 Beyer indicates rising form, and he’s well-ridden by top jockey Irad Ortiz.
Tisttastic (Post 14, 20-1)
Another Steve Asmussen trainee, Tisttastic benefits from experience and a recent impressive victory in the Louisiana Derby. Though workouts may appear uninspiring, past performance suggests racing maturity.
Kentucky Derby Best Bets and Predictions
Marco’s top picks are:
- Journalism (8)
- Sovereignty (18)
- Grande (10)
- Burnham Square (9)
Sean’s selections include:
- Grande (10)
- Journalism (8)
- Luxor Cafe (7)
- Tisttastic (14)
Both recommend exacta boxes combining Journalism and Grande, suggesting bettors consider blending favorites with value picks.
2025 Kentucky Derby Picks and Derby Horses Premium Picks!
Marco D’Angelo, a long-time horse racing enthusiast, breeder, and owner since 1986, brings decades of hands-on experience to the table. Sean Alvarez, also a veteran bettor, complements Marco’s insight with sharp analytical skills, having previously nailed high-payout bets like the Mage 15-1 pick in past Derbies.
2025 Kentucky Derby Betting Strategies Explained
Understanding Exotics
- Exacta: Predicting the first two finishers in exact order
- Trifecta: Predicting the top three
- Superfecta: Predicting the top four
Boxes allow for more flexibility, e.g., a 1-2 exacta box wins whether it finishes 1-2 or 2-1.
Kentucky Derby Final Thoughts
The 2025 Kentucky Derby offers a mix of seasoned contenders and under-the-radar long shots. With expert insight from Marco and Sean, bettors are well-positioned to craft intelligent tickets and chase both value and victory.
Stay tuned to WagerTalk for more expert picks, and don’t forget to use promo codes and deals mentioned during the show for premium content.
