2024 NBA MVP Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

NBA MVP Betting Preview for 2023-24

WagerTalk NBA handicapper Andy Lang runs through his NBA MVP betting preview for the 2023-24 season. What are the 2024 NBA MVP odds? Who has won in season’s past? Who is a solid prediction to win the 2024 NBA MVP? Read below!

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NBA Players	Odds to Win 2024 NBA MVP
Nikola Jokic, DEN	+450
Luka Doncic, DAL	+500
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL	+550
Joel Embiid, PHI	+650
Jayson Tatum, BOS	+800
Kevin Durant, PHO	+1400
Steph Curry, GSW	+1500
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	+1600
Trae Young, ATL	+1800
Devin Booker, PHO	+1800

 

Past NBA MVP Award Winners

2023: Joel Embiid, PHI
2022: Nikola Jokic, DEN
2021: Nikola Jokic, DEN
2020: Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL
2019: Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL

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 NBA MVP Award Betting Trends

There is a rule change in NBA awards this season as players have to play at least 65 games and 20 minutes per game to be eligible to win the league MVP and the Defensive Player of the Year award.

This shouldn’t have much of an impact on the MVP market as Joel Embiid became the first player to win the award while playing less than 65 games without the season being shortened.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James and Karl Malone all won the award in shortened season due to Covid-19 and lockouts.

There have been seven back-to-back MVPs since 2000: Tim Duncan, Lebron James (twice), Steve Nash, Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic. Since 1983, only Russell Westbrook (2016-17) and Nikola Jokic (2021-22) have won the NBA award without being on a top-3 seeded team.

2024 NBA MVP Prediction

The Boston Celtics Jayson Tatum finished 6th and 4th in the MVP voting during the last two seasons. He averaged 30.1 points, 8.8 rebounds and 4.6 assists last season while shooting 60.7% for a 57-win team.

The most recent memory of Tatum he was a shell of himself due to a sprained ankle he suffered during the playoff run.

However, this is the same player that knocked off Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jimmy Butler en route to losing to Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals as a 23-year-old.

Last season, Tatum was the league leader in total points scored with 2.225, only Lebron James, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Steph Curry and Russell Westbrook have exceeded this total (active players) and they are all former MVPs.

Tatum’s trajectory is comparable to James and Durant who won the award in their 7th season, two years removed from their first Finals appearance and that’s where Tatum is now.

Tatum currently sits at 5th in preseason MVP odds and there is plenty of reason to believe that he should be higher. Fatigue could play into Jokic, Antetokounmpo and Embiid who have all battled through season to win the award during the past five seasons.

Voters are always looking for the next big thing, an example is Embiid beating out Jokic last season. Doncic’s case will be hurt by last season 11th place finish and the Mavs may improve but a 52-30 season like 2021-22 is lofty expectations.

Doncic will also share the spotlight with Kyrie Irving and Antetokounmpo will have the same issue with the addition of Dame Lillard. The same could be said for Tatum with Kristaps Porzingis & Jrue Holiday being added to mix along with Jaylen Brown, but that will also help his efficiency.

The Celtics have the highest projected win total at 54.5 and there are only four other teams projected to win 50 games: Milwaukee, Denver, Phoenix and Cleveland.

Tatum has also spoke of his desire to be part of the All-Defensive team which would add another layer to Tatum’s MVP resume.

The MVP race has essentially been between Jokic, Antetokounmpo and Embiid the last three season, but there is a clear path for Tatum to win the award and at +800 odds that’s where the value is.

2024 NBA MVP Prediction: Jayson Tatum +800 DraftKings

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