Andy Lang

THE PLAY: Emeka Egbuka Receiving Yards Over 52.5 (-110)

Emeka Egbuka OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110) — Buccaneers at Bengals

This looks like a great opportunity for Emeka Egbuka to establish himself as Tampa Bay's new No. 1 receiver. Mike Evans is gone, and Jalen McMillan has been limited in practice with a knee injury. That leaves Egbuka, Chris Godwin, Cade Otton and the running backs as the primary options for Baker Mayfield. Egbuka's toe injury from the preseason also appears to be behind him, as he's been a full participant in practice this week.

We saw Egbuka's ceiling immediately during his rookie season. He opened the year with receiving totals of 67, 29, 85, 101 and 163 yards before injuries started slowing him down. He ultimately finished his rookie season with 938 receiving yards, so this isn't a projection based purely on potential. We've already seen him produce at a high level in the NFL.

The matchup is another reason to like the Over. PFF enters the season with Cincinnati's secondary ranked 18th in the NFL. The Bengals were also the only defense in football to surrender more than 2,500 yards after the catch last season. That's particularly interesting with Egbuka because he doesn't necessarily need a bunch of deep completions to get beyond 52.5 yards. Get the football in his hands and let him work.

There's even a little additional uncertainty in Cincinnati's secondary, with cornerback DJ Turner II limited Thursday by a hamstring injury. Turner was one of Cincinnati's best coverage defenders last season, so that's worth monitoring heading into Sunday.

Egbuka is healthy, the target competition has opened up with Evans gone, and we're getting a very manageable number for a receiver who showed several times last season that he can put up huge yardage when healthy.

We only need 53 receiving yards from Tampa Bay's potential new No. 1 receiver.

Emeka Egbuka OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110) is the play.

THE PLAY: Brandon Moreno 100

I guess this line is telling us that Brandon Moreno is past his prime, because I don’t understand why he’s the underdog here. Joseph Morales is coming off winning The Ultimate Fighter and followed that up by beating a washed-up Matt Schnell, and now he’s favored over Moreno? I don’t see it.

Morales has shown a decent ground game and brings consistent forward pressure, but Moreno is still only 32 years old and has spent years fighting the best of the best. He still has a long jab, good movement and the ability to clinch and control opponents against the fence. Moreno needs to increase his volume a little bit, but if he does, I think his experience and overall skill set will be too much for Morales.

THE PLAY: David Montgomery Rushing Yards Over 53.5 (-114)

David Montgomery over 53.5 rushing yards

Buffalo allowed the 28th-most rushing yds/gm last season, giving Houston a favorable matchup on the ground. With the game total set at just 44.5 points, this projects as a low-scoring, run-heavy game. Houston also has reason to lean on its rushing attack. The Texans added to their O-line this offseason, while their WR room has undergone recent turnover. That combo should make establishing the run a logical priority, particularly against a vulnerable Buffalo rush defense.

We’ve also seen it before in this matchup. The Texans ran the ball 28 and 26 times versus the Bills in their last meetings, with 16 of those carries going to Woody Marks in 2025. Now that Houston has a legit RB1 in David Montgomery, look for him to take over those opportunities. Monty has averaged 4.1 yds/att over his career, so if he gets 15+ carries, that projects to 61.5 rushing yards in other words, he shouldn’t need an overly efficient day to cover this number.

The other factor working in Montgomery’s favor is his ability to create chunk plays. Monty had 15 explosive runs in 2025, meaning runs of 15+ yds. That’s one out of every 10.5 carries, so chances are we see at least one this week, and that dramatically changes the math. One explosive run, and a 15-carry workload with even modest efficiency puts him comfortably over this 53.5 line.