Sean Alvarez

THE PLAY: UTSA +14.0 (-105)

The South Florida Bulls are led by Byrum Brown at quarterback who has thrown for 1,964 yards while completing 62.9% of his passes this season, but he has also added 596 yards rushing on 5 yards per carry while leading the Bulls in rushing yards. The 2 lead running backs do add nice YPC averages of 7.1 and 6.2 but they hold just 99 combined carries to Brown’s 120 carries. Chas Nimrod is a big piece within the passing game, but he also helps the running game with his big play capabilities and a 20.3 yards per reception average. Chas has been sidelined with a leg injury and South Florida struggled to complete drives in a tough loss to Memphis last week. Chas has been “progressing well” towards playing this week, but I question how sharp he can be and where his conditioning is after missing significant time.

The UTSA offense struggled against North Texas, but they have taken steps forward since the start of the season behind Owen McCown and Robert Henry Jr. Owen McCown has put up solid stats on the year while completing 67.5% of his passes and a 17/4 TD/INT ratio with a solid running game behind him with Robert Henry Jr. running for 955 yards on an 8 YPC average. South Florida has played well against the run with a 3.8 YPC average against them but they have struggled against the pass while giving up 272 yards per game. The receiving core for the Roadrunners has a nice combination of sharp route runners and speed to stretch the secondary down field with McCuin (10.7 YPR – 43 receptions), Amador II (8.5 YPR – 28 receptions), Wilson (20.9 YPR – 16 receptions). 

Byrum Brown should continue with his solid running game and passing, but I feel that either missing Chas Nimrod or even him playing in limited abilities, takes away from this Bulls offense. South Florida should be able to slow down the UTSA running game but McCown can sling the ball around the field against a weak Bulls defense and I think UTSA can keep it within the number.