College Football Free Picks Today - Best College Football Bets September 16

The case for the Over begins with a Penn State passing attack that has been far more explosive than its overall scoring numbers suggest through two games. The Nittany Lions own a 47.8% offensive success rate, but the passing game jumps to 54.5% with an elite 0.71 PPA and 1.86 explosiveness rating. Rocco Becht and the Penn State quarterbacks have completed 75.9% of their passes, averaged 11.0 yards per attempt, and produced seven touchdown passes without an interception. Becht followed the opener by completing 21 of 27 passes for 268 yards and three touchdowns against Temple, showing Penn State can generate points efficiently through the air even as its running game remains inconsistent. The Nittany Lions’ aerial attack looks especially attractive against a Buffalo pass defense that has surrendered 7.6 yards per attempt, six touchdown passes, and 590 passing yards through two games. Buffalo's 1.98 defensive passing explosiveness ranks 131st, creating the kind of big-play vulnerability that Penn State's efficient passing attack can exploit. The Bulls have also generated only three sacks, so Becht should have opportunities to attack vertically. While Penn State's offense is playing at a relatively deliberate 29.3 seconds per play, the strongest path to the Over is through explosive scoring efficiency and short drives created through the passing game.

Buffalo is playing at one of the fastest tempos in the country (16.6 seconds when leading and 22.9 seconds when trailing), which will preserve possessions even if Penn State builds a substantial lead. Buffalo owns a +2.9% pass rate over expectation and throws on 59.5% of its offensive snaps, an aggressive profile that should keep the clock from continuously running in a game where the Bulls are likely to be chasing points. Although Buffalo's overall 32.7% success rate ranks only 132nd, its 1.37 explosiveness rating is much more respectable, and five passing touchdowns through two games show that the Bulls can still manufacture scoring plays despite poor down-to-down efficiency. Wide receiver Chance Morrow has accounted for all five Buffalo touchdowns and enters this matchup tied for the FBS lead with five touchdown receptions.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database highlights several independent historical profiles supporting a high-scoring affair, the strongest of which involve low totals in games involving massive favorites:

• Large college football favorites of more than 32 points in games with totals below 56 are 276-164 to the Over (62.7%), producing +19.8% ROI since 1990;

• College football games in which the total is less than the point spread plus 14 points have gone 252-149 Over (62.8%), with a +20.0% ROI since 2004;

• Non-conference road underdogs of +35 to +50 with totals of 65 or fewer are 262-181 to the Over (59.1%), generating +12.9% ROI since 1989;

• Large college football favorites of 31 points or more with totals of 51 or fewer in games starting before 4 p.m. are 21-5 to the Over (80.8%), with a +54.2% ROI.

Penn State carries the larger scoring burden, and the combination of its efficient passing game, Buffalo's extreme vulnerability to explosive passes, and the Bulls' aggressive tempo creates a realistic script in which the Nittany Lions push into the 40s while Buffalo supplies enough points on the other side. With Penn State holding a major offensive matchup advantage and Buffalo structurally inclined to speed up the game rather than shorten it, take the Over as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 19.

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

FREE PICK on Oregon Ducks (ATS) | Good until -59.5.

Oregon got humiliated last week against Oklahoma State, getting torched both on the scoreboard & the stat-sheets. Portland State hasn't looked great this season, which makes this a prime blowout spot. Oregon will be mad and want to prove to everyone that it's still a contender. This line is ridiculously large. But, we saw what Miami did last week as a similar sized favorite. Go with Oregon.

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

Friday Night Lights in the Lone Star State featuring Texas Tech hosting Houston. Nationally televised primetime on Fox. Right off the rip, if you don't like betting the contrarian angle stop reading now. This is a setup where the masses are going to be on the Cougars, however the Red Raiders are the play.

Texas Tech did not look good last week in a strange trip to Corvallis, Oregon. Friday night back in Lubbock, I expect a "Bounce back" effort. The oddsmakers and betting public have pushed this number all the way down to (-7.5). A huge move from the Game of the Year lines a couple weeks ago having Texas Tech as nearly a two touchdown favorite. Also, important to note that the line steamed down to (-7.5) and stayed off (-7). If you see a (-7) I would pounce quickly, because the market is telling us there will likely be buy back.

Joey McGuire's squad is not only the highest spender in the BIG 12 Conference NIL by a wide margin. They have won and covered 7 straight against Houston. Including by 3+ touchdowns in each of the last two meetings. Houston QB Conner Weigman is a former 5 star recruit, one of the supposedly best QB's in his class. This is now his 5th year in college and at no point has he come remotely close to living up to his hype. We have seen him countless times at Texas A&M and now in Houston, I even saw him live late last year in Orlando almost cough a game up to a banged up UCF squad. Do not be surprised if he struggles mightily in Lubbock. This one just missed the client card. For Friday's free pick- Bet Texas Tech.

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Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

(105) Syracuse at (106) Pittsburgh: Total

Total Under 51.5 (-110)

Syracuse is averaging only 18 PPG.

Pittsburgh is allowing just 10.5 PPG.

Syracuse is averaging only 4.9 yards/play.

This is a much better Under setup than the early-season raw scoring numbers might suggest. 

Recent rivalry history strongly favors the Under.

6 of the last 7 meetings have gone Under, averaging only 41 total points.

Play: UNDER 51.5

Released/revised 18 hour(s) ago

A little late to the party here after seeing the 9.5 flash on Sunday and not grabbing it right away. Hence, the free play versus a premium. Both teams have faced Oregon State this season. Houston beat them 33-20 in Week 1 and held the Beavers to 26 rushing yards. Texas Tech went to Corvallis a week later and won 35-24 while giving up 472 total yards. Two wins over the same opponent, but the box score tells a different story.

If you recall we took under 10.5 wins +185 on here as a free play to start the season. Primarily because the overhype coupled with the giant bullseye on the Red Raiders back for the offseason drama involving Brendan Sorsby. And after seeing Will Hammond for two games we now know why they fought so hard for him.

Couple of injuries on the Tech side of the ball. Tight end Terrance Carter (foot) and edge rusher Trey White (knee) are both game time calls.

Yes, Lubbock at night is worth five to the number. The place is a hostile environment. Texas Tech has won six in a row in this series, including 35-11 in Houston last year. Might be time for the streak to be broken. Worth a little moneyline sprinkle.

PLAY: Houston +7.5. 

Released/revised 19 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on HOU.

I am putting Texas Tech on Upset Alert! Everyone can see it, there is a consensus opinion that the Red Raiders have lost a step, and they aren't living up to expectations as favorites to win the BIG12. After a lackluster performance in their season opener versus Albien Christian, they barely beat the Beavers as a 26.5 point favorite in Corvallis on Saturday. The final score doesn't tell the whole story, as the Beavs had the ball down 28-24 inside 2 minutes remaining. They ended up turning the ball over and giving up another TD. The box score shows that Oregon State dominated total yards, and QB Braden Aktinson threw for 413 yards and a pair of TDs. Will Hammond has failed to impress for the Red Raiders. Houston may have the better quarterback and the better coach, and the advantages the Red Raiders were expected to have may not be as significant as expected.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Dabo Swinney will be shown the door soon at Clemson and we’ll fade them with points in our pocket as they clash with UNC on Saturday. The season started with a humiliating 51-10 loss to LSU and last week the Tigers failed to cover again against Georgia Southern. Once an elite organization, Swinney’s inability to adjust to the current landscape of college football has led his team straight downhill, and they’re off to an 0-2 ATS start as a result. North Carolina got their revenge on TCU to kick off the season, winning outright as over a touchdown underdog before an easy winner against ETSU. Bill Belichick has essentially had 3 weeks to prepare for this game after facing the much lower level competition, and we have a live dog on our hands when the Tar Heels head to Clemson in early action Saturday. Take UNC.

Released/revised 23 hour(s) ago

The Hoosiers dominated each of their first two opponents but came up just short of covering. Laying -40.5 points, they beat North Texas by 36. Last week, laying -57.5, they won by 55. This week's number isn't as big as last week's and should allow the defending champs a chance for their first ATS victory. WKU has played a very tough schedule, as this will be its third straight road game. WKU lost by 50 at Georgia last week and by 35 at Nevada to start the season. If the Wolf Pack can beat the Hilltoppers by 35, imagine what the Hoosiers will do. Catching their guests playing a third straight road game, the Hoosiers should be able to win by at least as many as Georgia did. Expect this one to be totally lopsided from the start.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago