Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Total Over 152.0 (-110)

The New York Liberty's preseason opener against the Connecticut Sun on Friday, May 9, 2025, presents a compelling opportunity to bet on the Over 152. 

Under head coach Sandy Brondello, the Liberty have been recognized for their offensive prowess, leading the league in offensive rating during the 2024 season. This success is attributed to a dynamic, positionless offense that emphasizes spacing and ball movement. A notable development for the 2025 season is the implementation of a five-out offensive scheme, moving away from the traditional four-out setup. This adjustment leverages the team's versatile frontcourt, who possess perimeter shooting capabilities, enhancing floor spacing and facilitating a faster-paced game.

In contrast, the Connecticut Sun, under new head coach Rachid Meziane, are in a phase of transition. Meziane, who previously coached the Belgian national team, is integrating a European-style approach that emphasizes discipline and structured play . While his coaching philosophy is still being established, the Sun's roster is undergoing significant changes, which may affect their ability to execute a cohesive defensive strategy early in the season. His coaching style, while disciplined, favors pushing the ball in transition.

Given the Liberty's established offensive efficiency and their strategic shift towards a faster-paced game, coupled with the Sun's transitional phase, pace, and potential defensive vulnerabilities, betting on the 152 points is the wager tonight.

THE PLAY: Miami Marlins -0.5 (-105) M Meyer (RHP), B Wilson (RHP) Must Start

For the Marlins F5 -0.5 bet against the White Sox, multiple key statistics and recent trends point towards Miami having the advantage early in the game.

Max Meyer, the Marlins' starter, has shown impressive strikeout potential with a 10.54 K/9 rate over his last few outings. He has maintained solid control with a 3.29 BB/9 and a strong 56.2% ground ball rate, which should help mitigate any hard-hit balls from the White Sox's lineup, which has struggled with a .222 team batting average over the last 30 days. Meyer’s ability to generate strikeouts and keep the ball on the ground positions him well for success against a White Sox offense that ranks near the bottom in terms of offensive production, with just 3.4 runs per game over the last 30 days.

On the other hand, Bryse Wilson (White Sox) has not been as effective, with a 6.75 ERA and a 2.02 WHIP over his recent starts. His 39.1% ground ball rate and 40.6% fly ball rate indicate potential problems in keeping the Marlins’ hitters from making solid contact. The Marlins have shown strong offensive signs, with a .394 slugging percentage and a wOBA of .325 over the last 30 days, and their ability to put the ball in play should take advantage of Wilson’s struggles.

With Meyer in solid form and the Marlins’ offense able to capitalize on Wilson’s inconsistencies, betting on Miami F5 -0.5 provides value. The White Sox have shown inefficiency at the plate, and Meyer’s ability to keep the game under control early should give the Marlins the edge in the first five innings. This makes the Marlins F5 -0.5 a strong play.