Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Atlanta Dream Total Over 82.5 (-117)

The Atlanta Dream face the Indiana Fever with a strong case for their team total to exceed 82.5 points. The Dream hold a rest advantage, having not played since four days ago, while the Fever are coming off a game just two days prior. Atlanta’s recent form supports this bet, as they’ve scored 90 or more points in four of their last six games, and they had a 91-point performance against the Fever earlier this season. As road underdogs, the Dream are a perfect 4-0 to the over on their team total this season, showcasing their ability to produce offensively in challenging matchups like this one.

The Fever’s defensive struggles, particularly when Caitlin Clark is on the court, further bolster the case for the Dream’s team total over. With Clark in the lineup, Indiana plays at a faster pace but has a worse defensive rating compared to when she’s off the court. This dynamic should allow Atlanta to capitalize on more scoring opportunties as well as take advantage of the edge they have on the offensive boards and ability to get to the free throw line. Given the Dream’s offensive momentum and their success in similar spots, the data points to a high likelihood of them surpassing 82.5 points in this matchup.