Tokyo Brandon

THE PLAY: Under +167.5 (-110)

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These long-term numbers say it all:

#4 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2025 (+49 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2024 (+180 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2022 (+125 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2021 (+225 units) Tokyo Brandon 

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Since Conference Play

Top two leading scorers

Assist leaders

Top two rebound leaders

Injuries

Score prediction

My projection: BYU 90 – Utah 74 (Total 164)

Player matchup breakdowns

Terrence Brown (Utah) vs BYU perimeter defense / Robert Wright III: Brown is Utah’s engine and has been on a heater in January (33, 26, 25, 26, etc.), creating a huge share of Utah’s self-made offense. BYU’s best answer is to make Brown work on both ends by forcing him into repeated on-ball actions vs Wright, then showing secondary bodies to take away straight-line drives—because if Brown gets downhill, Utah’s whole offense stabilizes. Wright’s January production is elite too (18/27/23/15/28 points with 4–6 assists most nights), so BYU can “win” this matchup even if Brown scores, as long as Wright controls tempo and turnover margin.

Don McHenry (Utah) vs BYU wings (Saunders/Dybantsa): McHenry is Utah’s best secondary scorer, but his January scoring in the visible log window is more “solid” than “takeover,” which matters a lot on the road vs a top-tier opponent. BYU can rotate multiple long athletes at him: Saunders is steady and physical, while Dybantsa adds rim pressure and foul-drawing that can flip halves quickly. Saunders’ January rebounding from the wing (including a 14-rebound game at Utah) is a quiet edge that fuels BYU runouts, and Dybantsa’s January scoring load is consistent even against strong Big 12 competition.

Keanu Dawes (Utah) vs AJ Dybantsa (BYU) frontcourt athleticism: Dawes has been Utah’s best glass guy in January (multiple 9+ rebound games and a 14-board night vs TCU), and Utah needs him to win the possession game to stay inside 20. Dybantsa isn’t just a scorer—he rebounds enough to end stops and is comfortable attacking mismatches, so Utah’s help decisions around Brown/McHenry ball screens become costly if they open lanes for Dybantsa to finish or get to the line.

Why I am Betting This:

Both teams’ January game averages are below this number

Since 1/1/26:

• Utah average total games: ~164–165

• BYU average total games: ~161–162

BYU defense is the controlling variable

Since 1/1/26:

• BYU allowing ~77 ppg

• They’ve held multiple Big 12 teams in the 60s/low 70s

• At home, their defensive efficiency improves

If BYU controls tempo (very likely as a -19.5 favorite), Utah probably lands in the low 70s.

Blowout script favors the under

This is a sneaky big one.

With BYU -19.5:

• If BYU gets up 18–25 late

• They slow pace

• Starters sit

• Fewer late-game fouls

• Bench possessions are sloppier and lower efficiency

That kills overs.

A 92–74 type final lands at 166. That’s right in the range of a comfortable BYU win.

Utah offensive volatility on the road

Utah’s offense is heavily Terrence Brown-dependent.

If:

• Brown gets into foul trouble

• BYU traps him

• Utah has a 6–8 minute scoring drought (which has happened in January)

The game total drops fast.

Utah doesn’t have multiple reliable 20-point threats.

Big spread suppresses foul-driven endings

Totals above 165 usually need:

• Competitive game late

• Intentional fouls

• Free throws extending last 90 seconds

If BYU is up 16+ with 1:30 left, nobody fouls. Clock drains.

That’s under-friendly.

BYU doesn’t need to push 100

Unlike some run-and-gun teams, BYU can win comfortably in the 80s/low 90s. They don’t need to turn this into a 100-possession game to cover.

Utah’s path to staying inside 19.5 = slower game

If Utah wants to cover:

• They must limit possessions

• They can’t play fast

• They have to grind

That script also favors the under.

What number does this game land on most often?

My projection: 90–74 = 164

Median range: 162–166

So 167 is sitting just above that pocket.

Bottom Line

Under 167 has value because:

Both teams’ Jan averages sit below it
Blowout risk suppresses late fouling
BYU controls tempo
Utah offensive inconsistency
Market inflated due to rivalry + BYU scoring perception

THE PLAY: Chiba Under +80.5 (-115)

Team comparison

Game 1 → Game 2 back-to-back trend (this season)

This series: Game 1 finished Ryukyu 92–61 at Chiba (total 153).
Chiba in recent 2-game weekends has more often seen Game 2 totals rise vs Game 1 (ex: Kyoto 133→149, Nagasaki 165→170, Toyama 151→161), and results tended to repeat (wins stayed wins / losses stayed losses).
Ryukyu in recent 2-game weekends has more often seen Game 2 totals drop vs Game 1 (Hiroshima 153→142, Toyama 170→159, Sendai 152→151, Mikawa 151→140), and they’ve had more “split” weekends (result flips) than Chiba.

Net: Chiba’s recent pattern leans “more scoring in Game 2,” Ryukyu’s leans “less scoring in Game 2,” and Game 1 was already an under (153).

Key player matchups (with quick edges)

• Nassir Little vs Vic Law: Law is Ryukyu’s #1 scorer/creator (15.9 PPG, 4.2 APG); Little is Chiba’s #1 scorer and a major rebound/defense piece (14.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG). Edge: Ryukyu on creation burden.

• Paint/Rebounding: (Mooney OUT) vs Cooley/Kirk: Mooney is Chiba’s top rebounder (11.3 RPG) but is on the IL; that shifts the interior battle heavily toward Cooley’s rebounding + Ryukyu size. Big edge: Ryukyu.

• Yuki Togashi vs Ryukyu guards (Kishimoto/Dotson): Togashi drives Chiba’s assist rate (4.8 APG). Ryukyu gets strong perimeter scoring from Dotson/Kishimoto (11.8/11.2 PPG range). Edge: slight Ryukyu if Chiba can’t get clean early offense.

• Perimeter scoring: D.J. Hogg / Yuta Watanabe vs Dotson: Chiba has multiple double-digit scorers; Ryukyu’s spacing is helped by Dotson’s shooting (notably strong 3P%). Edge: depends on Chiba pace/transition.

Projection + betting value (Game 2)

Projected score: Ryukyu 81 – Chiba 74

• Projected margin: Ryukyu +7 → value Ryukyu +3.5 and sprinkle ML +136

• Game 1 context matters: a 31-point loss + Mooney on IL makes Chiba’s -3.5 hard to justify unless Ryukyu completely no-shows.