Sean Alvarez
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+7.60% since Feb 12, 2026 in GLF
Last updated Feb 16, 10:32 AM EST
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THE PLAY: Total Over 6.5 (-121)
Logan Gilbert had a bit of a regression season last year while losing 1MPH on his fastball and an expected run value of 7 compared to 12 the previous season. Logan’s 2nd best pitch has been his slider throughout his career while throwing the pitch 760+ plus times last season but he lost 15 expected run value on the slider last season and with the regression with his 2 most dependable pitches, he could struggle compared to what we are used to seeing from him.
Tanner Bibee struggled early in the season last year while giving up 13 earned runs and 7 home runs over his first 4 starts and that trend continued throughout the year until he turned around his form within his 4 starts during September. Tanner was able to improve his fastball but that improvement came from a poor 2024 season with a -9 expected run value and improving to a -2 expected run value. Tanner did have a couple solid showing in Spring Training but he finished the preseason by giving p 14 earned runs on 23 hits and 5 home runs over 10.1 innings pitched.
Both lineups are capable of putting up crooked numbers and I am not sold on either pitcher getting back to “ace” form without seeing something from them first after their season last year and spring training results, so I am going to play the over 7 runs here.
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Consultant Bio
Working at a country club a mile east of Del Mar Racetrack, Sean was introduced to horse racing and his passion for the sport took off. The puzzle of going through past performances and replays appealed to Sean and spent his time after work listening to respected handicappers to learn as much as he could. In his first season playing the NHC Tour, he qualified for the Championship by placing 2nd in the LRF Cares contest after turning his initial $250 bankroll into $3,640.40. In this year's Xpressbet Kentucky Derby contest, Sean finished 6th by flipping the $2,000 bankroll into $15,681.85 while also taking home a 2024 Pegasus World Cup Betting Challenge entry valued at $6,000.
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