THE PLAY: Total Under 158.5 (-106)

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These long-term numbers say it all:

#4 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2025 (+49 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2024 (+180 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2022 (+125 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2021 (+225 units) Tokyo Brandon 

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parameters: under 155.5 or higher

Team comparison (since conference play)

Score prediction + betting line breakdown

My projection (full game): Saint Louis 80 – St. Bonaventure 72 (Total 152)
That makes the market total (157.5) look a bit inflated versus recent since-1/1/26 scoring profiles (SLU: 146.4 average game total across their last 5; SBON: 153.0 across last 5).

Player matchup breakdowns (with competition level context)

Robbie Avila (SLU) vs Frank Mitchell (SBON): Avila is SLU’s offensive hub (team leader in points and assists) while Mitchell is SBON’s primary scorer/rebounder. If SBON has to send extra help to keep Avila from facilitating, SLU’s secondary options get cleaner looks; if SBON stays home, Avila’s efficiency/decision-making tends to keep SLU’s offense stable.

SLU guards (Dion Brown / Quentin Jones) vs SBON perimeter (Dasonte Bowen / Darryl Simmons II): SBON’s best path is Simmons creating shot volume and Bowen organizing—but Bowen is listed questionable, which matters for ball security and late-clock shot quality. SLU’s since-1/1/26 defensive results are strong (66.0 allowed), including multiple A-10 games where opponents were held in the 50s/60s.

Rebounding/second-chance: Mitchell is a major glass edge (10.4 RPG), but SLU has multiple rebound contributors (Brown/McCottry) and has been winning games by keeping opponents’ scoring down rather than racing totals upward—one reason I’m more comfortable on the under than on laying points.

Competition level: SLU’s profile is clearly stronger right now (18–1, ranked) versus SBON (12–7) on the same ESPN stat pages, and SLU’s since-1/1/26 stretch includes road wins and consistent margins.

Why I am betting this:

• My game script projects below this range: I make it roughly 152 total, so Under 158.5 gives ~6–7 points of cushion.

• Saint Louis’ defense is legitimately strong (the most “Under-friendly” ingredient): SLU grades well in efficiency-based defensive metrics, which tends to travel better than shooting.

• Spread context (-8.5) is Under-friendly more often than not: when one team is expected to control, the leading team often shortens the game late (more half-court, longer possessions, less transition).

• St. Bonaventure’s scoring is more fragile if their ball-handler isn’t 100%: if Bowen is limited, SBON can get sloppier and more late-clock possessions (empty trips are gold for an Under).

• A-10 games can compress totals: conference familiarity + scouting usually reduces easy transition looks and increases half-court possessions (especially when a top defense is involved).

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THE PLAY: First Quarter Under +48.5 (-120)

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For a limited time, get a 7-Day All-Access Pass for just $69, the same price as a 3-Day pass. That breaks down to less than $10 per day for full access to Tokyo Brandon. You will receive every play, in every sport he releases, for a full week, including any Top Rated 5% Best Bets, which normally sell for $35 each.
This is your chance to follow Tokyo Brandon closely and get all of his action for seven straight days at a steep discount.

These long-term numbers say it all:

#4 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2025 (+49 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2024 (+180 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2022 (+125 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2021 (+225 units) Tokyo Brandon 

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This is a 2% client play. parameters: under 47.5 or higher

Shanghai @ Fujian — team comparison

Player vs player matchups (starters)

PG: Brandon Goodwin (SH) vs Li Yiyang (FJ)

• Goodwin edge: primary creator + elite assist load (6.9 APG) and efficient scoring for this league sample.

• Fujian counter: Yiyang is a steady secondary handler, but far less creation volume (2.8 APG).

SG: Li Hongquan (SH) vs Travis Trice (FJ)

• Trice is Fujian’s engine: high-usage scoring + playmaking (17.1 PPG / 5.5 APG).

• Shanghai counter: Hongquan is Shanghai’s #2 scorer and a big spacing piece (13.5 PPG; strong 3P volume).
  Net: Fujian’s best path is Trice winning this matchup decisively.

SF: Zheng Liu (SH) vs Yang Zou (FJ)

• Zou is Fujian’s best wing: 15.5 PPG + team-best rebounding for a wing (5.6 RPG) + steals.

• Shanghai’s wing spot here is more defense/role-driven; advantage Fujian.

PF: Zhenlin Zhang (SH) vs Xihao Yang (FJ)

• Zhang is a versatile forward (2.9 APG on the sheet suggests hub-ish usage for a PF).

• Xihao Yang brings rim protection (listed blocks rate) + boards; closer to even.

C: Hassan Whiteside (SH) vs Devin Williams (FJ)

• Whiteside is Shanghai’s biggest single defensive swing (rim protection + boards; 6.6 RPG in limited MPG).

• Williams is more of a complementary big (lower usage/creation). Shanghai advantage at the rim.

1st Quarter trends + 1Q score projection

1Q score projection

1Q: Shanghai 24 — Fujian 22 (1Q total ≈ 46)

THE PLAY: Over 73.5

7 Days of All Access for the Price of 3!

For a limited time, get a 7-Day All-Access Pass for just $69, the same price as a 3-Day pass. That breaks down to less than $10 per day for full access to Tokyo Brandon . You will receive every play, in every sport he releases, for a full week, including any Top Rated 5% Best Bets, which normally sell for $35 each.
This is your chance to follow Tokyo Brandon closely and get all of his action for seven straight days at a steep discount.

These long-term numbers say it all:

2024: #1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
2024: #1 All-Sports Profit (+180 units)
2022: #1 All-Sports Profit (+125 units)
2021: #1 All-Sports Profit (+225 units)
2025: #4 All-Sports Profit (+49 units)

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The primary pros for betting the Over 73.5 wins on the Miami Marlins for the 2026 season center on their clear upward trajectory and strategic offseason enhancements. Coming off a solid 79-83 finish in 2025—their best record in recent years and a significant improvement that included a strong second half and flirtation with relevance—the team demonstrated growing competitiveness, particularly with young talent stepping up in areas like the infield, outfield, and pitching depth. I have confidence in the rotation's stability and competence as most projected starters (even depth options) are expected to post ERAs better than 4.50, supporting a reliable pitching foundation despite some trades.

Offseason moves further bolster the case: the Marlins added impactful pieces like closer Pete Fairbanks (a one-year, $13M signing for bullpen stability), outfielder Christopher Morel (power and versatility), promising young outfielders Owen Caissie (via trade from Cubs) and Esteury Ruiz (from Dodgers), and a haul of prospects/infielders/outfielders from deals involving Ryan Weathers (to Yankees) and Edward Cabrera (to Cubs). These acquisitions address offensive gaps (especially power and depth up the middle) while the losses were primarily of controllable pitchers traded for youth and future upside, aligning with a build-without-blocking-talent approach.

Projections and analyses suggest the Marlins could push toward or above .500 (around 78-82 wins), well clear of 73.5, especially if key youngsters like Kyle Stowers, Jakob Marsee, Otto Lopez, and others continue progressing or break out further. The line appears undervalued given their 2025 baseline and roster upgrades, making the over a value play with momentum on their side in a division where not every team is peaking.