The Prez

THE PLAY: Total Over 42.0 (-116)

CAROLINA–CLEVELAND OVER 42.5

I like the Over 42.5 in Carolina–Cleveland. The Panthers have been one of the NFL's most productive offenses through two weeks, averaging 35.5 points and 400+ yards per game. Bryce Young has thrown for 600+ yards and six touchdowns with just one interception, and Carolina is coming off a 34-point performance against Atlanta.

The matchup also sets up well for Carolina to continue scoring. Cleveland has allowed 53 points through two games, and the Browns' defense has given up touchdowns in both contests. If Carolina gets into the high 20s, we don't need Cleveland to have a huge offensive afternoon to get this total over.

That's where I see the biggest opportunity. Cleveland's offense has been mediocre statistically — just 16.5 points and 269.5 yards per game — but Deshaun Watson has completed nearly 77% of his passes and has thrown three touchdowns against only one interception. The Browns also just scored 24 points against Tampa Bay, so getting into the 20s at home isn't an unreasonable expectation.

The Panthers' defense is another reason I don't need Cleveland to be spectacular. Carolina allowed 59 points in Week 1 before dramatically improving and holding Atlanta to only three points in Week 2. Keep in mind the Falcons were starting their 19th string QB. I think Cleveland can find enough offensive success to keep pace.

A score in the neighborhood of Carolina 27, Cleveland 20 gets us there, and Carolina has already demonstrated it can score in the 30s.

THE PLAY: Detroit Lions -6.5 (-110)

DETROIT LIONS -6.5 vs. NEW YORK JETS

I’m laying the 6.5 points with Detroit. The Lions are coming off a disappointing 41-31 loss to Buffalo, but that game also showed just how explosive this Detroit offense can be. Jared Goff threw for 327 yards and four touchdowns, while Jahmyr Gibbs was a major factor both running and receiving. Detroit is averaging 31 points per game through two weeks.

The matchup I really like is Detroit’s offense against a Jets secondary that is about to face a significant step up in competition. New York has been outstanding defensively, ranking No. 1 in the NFL in yards allowed and No. 2 against both the run and pass. But the Jets have yet to face an offense with the weapons and balance Detroit brings.

What I saw last week, especially in the 2nd half against the Bills, was a Lions offensive that was starting to click. We saw those deep slants and those long outs connecting and this will not be good for teams that can’t keep up. The Lions are putting up points at home against anyone and the Jets will at some point punt to many times.

I also expect Detroit to respond after the Buffalo loss. The Lions allowed 41 points and had major communication problems defensively, but they now return home to Ford Field for the first time since Week 1. The Jets, meanwhile, are coming off a 20-17 overtime loss to Green Bay and now have to travel to Detroit.

There are concerns with Detroit's defense, particularly in the secondary. Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph remain unavailable, and Avonte Maddox suffered a season-ending injury. But that also makes me more confident that Detroit will attack aggressively on offense rather than play conservatively. I just don’t think the Jets can fully take advantage of that.

The Jets are 1-1, but their offense has yet to demonstrate that it can consistently keep pace in a high-scoring game. Detroit has the offensive firepower to create separation, and -6.5 is a number I’m willing to lay at home.