Bryan Power

THE PLAY: Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-148) J Degrom (RHP), Y Kikuchi (LHP) Must Start

2% LA Angels +1.5 (9:38 ET): Please note that I’m betting the Angels on the run line (+1.5). Price is getting a little “juicy” (which I find interesting!) so making it a smaller (2%) play. Kudos to Rangers’ starter Jacob deGrom, who is now the first pitcher in MLB history to have a sub-2.50 ERA and 1700+ strikeouts in his first 235 career starts. The Rangers are also 6-0 with deGrom on the mound since June 1st. Incredibly, deGrom has not allowed more than 2 ER in any start since April 11th (when he allowed 3). So I get the idea of fading him in any way seems a bit scary. But there are reasons to do so on Monday. 

Texas’ road record this season is 18-27. They just dropped two of three over the weekend down in San Diego in a series I never could seem to figure out. That said, the one constant with this Rangers’ team is an inability to score runs. They average just 3.78 per game, sixth fewest in all of baseball. After an uncharacteristic offensive outburst on Saturday, it was back to their “old ways” last night with just one run scored and that came in the top of the first. In fact, after the first two batters of the game, the Rangers had just four hits the rest of the way. So deGrom is highly unlikely to get much run support tonight. 

The Angels are probably lucky to be within a half-game of the Rangers in the AL West standings, considering their much worse YTD run differential. However, the #1 factor that has me willing to step in front of deGrom here is that Yusei Kikuchi will be on the mound for the Angels. Kikuchi has been absolutely masterful here at home with a 1.12 ERA in eight starts. He’s allowed more than 3 ER in just two starts all season. So, given how low-scoring this game projects to be (total is 7.5), having a +1.5 in our back pocket seems ideal. The Angels did just lose three straight one-run games in Toronto. Meanwhile, Texas is 27th in wRC+ and 28th in batting average vs. lefties. 2% LA Angels +1.5 (Play to -160)