Adam Trigger

THE PLAY: KIA Tigers -125

Let's try this again.  This game has now been rained out twice but it's still the same matchup and everything still applies here.  There was no bullpen usage to take into consideration with both teams coming out of the break so everything is still the same as is the -125 price tag and I'll move forward with the move on Kia here.

Similar to the Lotte/LG game I think we have another import slugger injury that's not being fully accounted for in the number here. NC will be without Matthew Davidson, he's missed time for a couple of different reasons at points during the year but he's also likely out until August with a rib injury that was the result of a collision at 1st base.  Very similar to Dean, Davidson is a major source of pop for this NC lineup with 16 HR's and a .932 OPS.   Davidson being out is a big deal and I think it's even more magnified here as some of NC's lesser hitters are likely to be overpowered by Kia starter James Naile.

Riley Thompson has been red hot, he's been one of the best starters in KBO entering the break and Thompson vs Naile is a showdown that's as even as it gets.  Because we have two top of the line starters here, I think Naile and Kia end up with a sizeable edge as Kia gets a number of regulars back while Naile gets to navigate a NC lineup that won't have their top slugger (Davidson).  Even if Thompson is perfect (unlikely as even through his dominant run he's still given up at least 1 run in his last four starts) we still have that same edge with Kia's lineup against NC's bullpen.  Kia (like Lotte) hasn't had the best bullpen but that's offset by having every high leverage arm and potentially a 4th or 5th SP available in relief here.   NC's usual bullpen edge is less pronounced which makes Kia more appealing in this spot.  

Play on Kia Tigers -125 for 4% (or 4 units)