Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Denver Broncos -7.0 (-110)

The Giants enter Week 7 on a short week after a 34–17 upset of the Eagles, their second win in three games since turning to rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart. Dart and running back Cam Skattebo combined for five touchdowns in that win, but the surge came on the back of turnover luck and high-end finishing efficiency that is difficult to sustain. Now they travel to altitude to face a Broncos team who also have momentum on their side winning three straight games. The situation favors the Broncos, whose defense has become their identity while this can be viewed as a major letdown spot for a young Giants team..

By the data, this matchup aligns cleanly with Denver’s strengths. The Broncos are one of the best, if not the best, in the league by EPA/play with a 13% sack rate, an elite figure that limits explosive plays and compounds mistakes from young quarterbacks. Even after thier explosive week, the Giants are still near the bottom in points per play, suggesting regression toward their season averages is likely, especially in an altitude environment against pressure that can win without blitzing. Denver’s offensive profile remains conservative, but short fields created by sacks and three-and-outs elevate scoring probability even in a low-total game. The Broncos’ ability to generate pressure while staying structurally sound forces punts, field goals or turnovers and keeps control of pace, which is critical when laying a touchdown.

Regression favors the Broncos’ defense maintaining its form more than the Giants’ offense repeating a turnover-fueled peak. In low-total games, elite defenses tend to separate late through short fields and controlled possessions, and Denver’s front is positioned to do just that. I like the Broncos -7, I think they win by at least 10 here.

THE PLAY: Las Vegas Raiders +12.5 (-110)

The Chiefs enter Week 7 off their best performance of the season, a 30–17 Sunday night win over Detroit where Patrick Mahomes accounted for four total touchdowns and the offense generated 26 first downs in a balanced script. Kansas City’s midweek report trended positively, with Rashee Rice returning from suspension and both Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy practicing fully. The Raiders snapped a four-game skid with a 20–10 win over Tennessee, powered by a defensive front that dictated the game…Maxx Crosby and Devin White led a constant rush that limited the Titans’ rhythm. Kansas City has re-established momentum, but Las Vegas brings confidence from its cleanest outing of the year and faces a divisional opponent needing to stay within two scores.

From an efficiency standpoint, Kansas City’s offense ranks top-five in EPA/play, but they play a slow pace and kill time with clock control and management. That’s key when spotting double digits to a division rival. The Raiders’ scoring output remains modest, but last week they reduced self-inflicted errors and showed offensive balance. Their defensive front remains their strength, capable of creating pressure with four and forcing field goals. Against a Chiefs team leaning into clock control, Las Vegas benefits from the math of possession squeeze. Even if Kansas City moves the ball, trading touchdowns for field goals keeps the Raiders inside the number. Regression also tilts toward a smaller KC margin after a turnover-free, high-efficiency showing versus Detroit, duplicating that against a solid pass rush is unlikely.

Divisional matchups with large spreads consistently favor the underdog...the Chiefs specifically are just 2-7 ATS as double digit, divisional favorites since 2020. Take the Raiders +12…playable to +10.

THE PLAY: Total Under 44.5 (-110)

Both teams enter London off under games that reinforced their defensive and structural identities. The Rams defeated Baltimore 17–3 behind a physical front that limited explosive plays and controlled field position. Los Angeles’ offense dialed back its aggressiveness after Puka Nacua’s ankle and foot injury, leaning on time of possession and shorter gains. Jacksonville, meanwhile, dropped a 20–12 decision to Seattle in a game defined by offensive breakdowns. Trevor Lawrence was pressured on more than half of his dropbacks and took seven sacks. Those protection issues are difficult to fully correct in one week, and when paired with Nacua’s uncertainty, both teams carry offensive question marks into this neutral-site matchup.

Efficiency data supports a measured scoring projection. The Rams rank 14th in EPA per play (0.03) and the Jaguars sit 16th (0.02), both operating near league-average with modest success rates…48% for Los Angeles and 44% for Jacksonville. The Rams already play at one of the slowest tempos in the NFL, and Sean McVay’s offense, which runs 11 personnel on 78% of plays, becomes even more methodical if Nacua’s workload is limited. On the other side, Jacksonville’s recent protection issues suggest a shift toward quicker throws and chip help, both of which suppress explosive-play potential. 

Historical and situational trends further strengthen the Under. Neutral-site favorites heading into a bye are 13–4 (76.5%) to the Under since 2017, a reflection of teams prioritizing control and health in these unique scheduling spots. Both offenses average just over 23 points per game, but their current form, injuries, and London’s travel effects all shave expected output below raw season averages. The play is Under 45, playable down to 43 with reduced stake.

THE PLAY: Wolverhampton Wanderers +0.25 (-127)

Sunderland enter as slight home favorites, the hosts have struggled to convert possession into high-quality chances, underscored by ongoing debate over whether Brian Brobbey should start up front as the club searches for finishing consistency. Wolves, meanwhile, have steadied after a volatile August that included a 0–1 loss at Bournemouth followed by a 3–2 League Cup win over West Ham. Recent form points to resilience, two straight league draws show a side trending toward tighter margins and improved defensive structure. With no major rest disparity and both teams in standard preparation windows, the environment projects evenly balanced rather than one where the home side dictates comfortably.

Sunderland’s unsettled striker rotation limits chemistry and finishing reliability, while Wolves’ have motivation to get their first PL win of the season as well as momentum from recent non-loss results. The matchup tilts toward control and containment rather than chaos…precisely the setup where +0.25 delivers outsized value through draw equity. Play Wolves +0.25…expect a cautious, compact affair that rewards the road dog’s improving form and steady defensive floor.

THE PLAY: Chelsea -0.5 (-110)

Chelsea enter this weekend as short road favorites at Nottingham Forest. The pricing aligns with recent form…Chelsea are fresh off a dramatic 2–1 victory over Liverpool that showcased their resilience despite injuries, while Forest fell 0–2 at Newcastle in a match where they were out-shot 18–5 and struggled to sustain meaningful possession. Forest’s lack of attacking spark under Postecoglou has intensified managerial pressure, and with no key reinforcements returning from injury, their offensive issues remain systemic rather than personnel-based. Chelsea’s squad depth and form momentum provide a clear contrast, particularly with several players coming back after missing time for various reasons.

From a matchup standpoint, Chelsea’s technical edge and superior match-winners position them well in what projects as a controlled, low-event game. Chelsea’s creative structure and midfield control remain intact, allowing them to dictate tempo against a Forest side that’s been territorially dominated in recent weeks. The hosts’ recurring trend of conceding first and their tendency to play conservatively under pressure reduce upset potential and play directly into the visitors’ quality advantage. Chelsea's confidence lift off the Liverpool result, combined with Forest’s continuing creative drought, supports a Chelsea outright win.