Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Toronto Raptors Total Over 106.5 (-110)

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The Toronto Raptors face off against the Miami Heat on Thursday, and even though the Raptors have been struggling, there’s a lot of value in their team total over 106.5 points. Toronto has already scored 119 and 111 points against Miami this season, showing they match up well against the Heat defense. Miami’s defensive strength lies in slowing down big-time scorers and controlling the pace, but the Raptors have proven they can find success by spreading the ball and getting contributions from multiple players on any given night.

Miami has had trouble defending teams that play fast and hit the boards, and Toronto does both well. The Raptors are one of the top teams in offensive rebounding, which leads to plenty of second-chance points. Miami also gives up a high percentage from three-point range, and Toronto’s shooters can get hot quick. 

Finally, the Raptors tend to score well even when they’re shorthanded, as they rely on ball movement and smart shot selection. They’ve hit over 106.5 points in six of their last seven games, while the Heat have given up more than 106.5 in five of their last six games. With Miami’s defense occasionally playing down to weaker teams and Toronto’s proven ability to score against them, backing the Raptors team total over 106.5 is a strong bet.

THE PLAY: Baltimore Ravens -16.0 (-110)

Gave this out to clients at -14, this is now up to as high as -16.5 at some books! This is why the long term subscription packages are well worth it, you get the plays as soon as I bet them myself. Sometimes we beat the closing number, sometimes we don't…but more often than not we are beating it. 

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This game sets up as a one-sided battle where the Baltimore Ravens have every advantage over the struggling New York Giants. The Ravens’ offense, led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, thrives on running the football, ranking 2nd in the NFL with 179.1 rushing yards per game. That spells trouble for the Giants, who are giving up 141.7 rushing yards per game and are now dealing with major injuries to key defensive players like Dexter Lawrence. Without their best run stoppers, the Giants won’t have an answer for Henry or Jackson, who will find plenty of room to run and extend drives.

On the other side, the Giants’ offense is a mess. Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito at quarterback won’t be able to take advantage of Baltimore’s weakness against the pass because New York’s offensive line is also banged up. Plus, Baltimore’s run defense is elite, allowing just 82.7 rushing yards per game (3rd best in the NFL), which means Tyrone Tracy Jr. will struggle to get anything going. The Giants already rank 32nd in scoring offense, putting up just 14.9 points per game, and it’s hard to see them finding success against a fired-up Ravens defense that’s had two weeks to prepare.

From a trend perspective, road favorites of more than two points off a loss as a home favorite are 55-22-4 ATS since the 2018 NFL season. If you include that the road favorite is off a bye week as well, that trend is undefeated since 2016! This trend backs the Ravens.

Baltimore is coming off a bye and a tough loss, which gives them extra motivation to dominate a weak opponent. With Jackson’s ability to exploit defenses and Henry running wild, Baltimore should build a big lead early and never look back. The Ravens -14 is the best bet here, as the Giants simply don’t have the firepower or defense to keep up.