Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: Total Under 3.0 (-121)

Everton vs Manchester City
EPL, Monday, 3pm ET

Play: Under 3 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -121
Line Parameter: Line good to -130, no play if line moves to 2.75

The Asian Total in this game is set at 3, which means that getting the Under 3 wins if there are 0, 1 or 2 goals, it's a Push (refund) at exactly 3 goals, and loses at 4 goals or more.

Only 1 of Everton's L/6 matches had 4 goals, just 2 of L/15, and just 3 of L/22. Those are pretty solid numbers. And at home, only 1 of L/11 had 4 goals or more, and just 2 of 20 home matches this season.

Only 1 of Manchester City's L/9 matches had 4 goals or more, and just 3 of L/17. On the road, just 1 of L/8 had 4 goals or more, and just 3 of L/16. Also pretty solid numbers.

Only 1 of L/9 H2H had 4 goals or more, with a 4-0 run to the Under 2.5 Goals, and only 1 of L/5 in this venue had 4 goals or more, with a 3-2 to the Under 2.5 Goals.

Manchester City are locked in on the title and they are being very serious lately, on a 6-match winning streak with 4 clean sheets and just 1 of those matches producing 4 goals or more, the FA Cup vs Liverpool.

Everton are sneakily trying to get a European ticket for next season, they are just 2 points off the 7th spot and 4 points off the 6th spot, and with 4 matches to go, they have valid chances. Even a Draw against City would be a great result, and even if they lose they'll try to suffer minimal damage so as to not destroy their goal difference (which is the first tiebreaker).

I like the Under 3 Goals here, based on stats, form and history there is a good chance we see up to 3 goals. If we see exactly 3 this bet is refunded.

The Play is on the Under 3 Goals (-121), line good to -130

NOTE: This is a 3% client play for Pavlos at WagerTalk

THE PLAY: Monaco to win by 3-2, 4-2 or 5-2 (+800)

Metz vs Monaco
Ligue 1, Saturday, 1pm ET

Play: Monaco to win by 3-2, 4-2 or 5-2
Odds at Time of Release: +800 FanDuel
Line Parameter: Line good to +650

Obviously a longshot, but with stats backing this up. First of all, each of L/2 H2H were won by Monaco with the same 5-2 scoreline. Looking at their current form, they are on a 3-match win-less streak against Toulouse (2-2 Draw), Auxerre (2-2 Draw) and Paris FC (4-1 loss), and now up against the already relegated Metz who will go out there and have some fun. Metz played for a 4-4 draw against Le Havre in their last match, while earlier in the season they lost at home to Lyon by 5-2, and to PSG by 3-2.

That's a whole lot of coincidences and I am willing to take a chance with this combination of correct scores which is +800 on FanDuel. You can find this prop under the "Correct Score Combinations tab".

Take 1% on Monaco to win by 3-2, 4-2 or 5-2 (+800 at FanDuel), line good to +650