Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Total Over 2.75 (-105)

Italy vs Norway
European World Cup Qualifiers, Sunday, 2:45pm ET

Play: Over 2.75 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -105
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

Another seemingly indifferent match in terms of points here, as Norway are leading the group with 21 points (and a whopping +29 goal difference), and Italy are sitting 2nd with 18 points and a +12 goal difference. The only way something changes here is if Italy beat Norway by a NINE-goal margin to steal the top spot, which is close to impossible.

Italy are 5-2 to the Over 2.5 Goals with an average of 4 goals/match, Norway are 6-1 to the Over 2.5 Goals with an average of 5.3 goals/match, and Norway also beat Italy by 3-0 at home in the reverse fixture.

These two don't really have anything to play for, and I don't think we see a monumental upset by Italy here, but there is a basis for an entertaining game between two teams that have thermonuclear weapons up front and we could be in for another goal-fest.

Take 2% on the Over 2.75 Goals (-105), line good to -125

THE PLAY: REGULATION Total Under 2.5 (-110)

Albania vs England
European World Cup Qualifiers, Sunday, 12pm ET

Play: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -110
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

Indifferent match in terms of points here, as England have already qualified to the World Cup and Albania have already locked the 2nd spot that leads to the playoffs. Both teams with really defensive profiles, and with England looking to keep their perfect clean sheet record. Albania are also quite tight as a team with a 6-1 to the Under 2.5 Goals and an average of 1.4 goals/match in this qualifying stage. The reverse fixture was a 2-0 win for England and these two are likely in for another slow game without too many goals, as Albania will also try to keep their clean sheet record at home.

Take 2% on the Under 2.5 Goals (-110), line good to -125

THE PLAY: REGULATION Total Over 2.75 (-112)

Israel vs Moldova
European World Cup Qualifiers, Sunday, 2:45pm ET

Play: Over 2.75 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -112
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

Indifferent match in terms of points here, as Israel and Moldova have both been eliminated and will just go out there and have fun. Israel are a perfect 7-0 to the Over 2.5 Goals in this stage, with an average of 4.9 goals/match, having scored 15 goals and having conceded 19. This team cannot play defense but their offense is decent and does produce.

Moldova are 4-3 to the Over 2.5 Goals with an average of 4.6 goals/match, which might seem a bit off but two of three unders came vs Italy, a much better team, and one was a 1-1 draw vs Estonia. Moldova have been trying to play more offensively in recent months, as playing massive defense doesn't really get them anywhere. This is the last match of this stage, nothing is at stake here, I think both teams go out there and try to have some "fun".

Take 2% on the Over 2.75 Goals (-112), line good to -125

THE PLAY: REGULATION Draw +232

Boca Juniors vs Tigre
Argentina, Sunday, 6:15pm ET

Play: Draw
Odds at Time of Release: +232
Line Parameter: Line good to +200

Final Match Day in the regular season in Argentina, and we have a match-up between Boca Juniors and Tigre, where a Draw gets both teams what they want, and it's at very good odds (+232) so we ride.

Boca Juniors will lock the top spot with a draw, and Tigre will also ensure that they are in the playoffs, but it must be said that Tigre are also looking for some points for the cumulative league table that decides the Copa Libertadores/Sudamericana tickets. However, they will also have extra chances if Lanus win the current Copa Sudamericana, or if one of the top-9 teams wins the Clausura.

A lot of moving parts in the weird format of the Argentine league, but whenever we see a "comfortable" draw at +232 we smash.

Take 1% on the Draw (+232), line good to +200

THE PLAY: REGULATION Red Card Awarded (+410)

Ukraine vs Iceland
European World Cup Qualifiers, Sunday, 12pm ET

Play: Red Card Awarded
Odds at Time of Release: +410 
Line Parameter: Line good to +350

Crucial game in this group, with France having already qualified to the World Cup as top seed and now Ukraine and Finland will fight for the 2nd spot. They are both tied at 7 points but it's Iceland who are sitting 2nd due to a much better goal difference. That means that they are going into this match looking for two results (draw or win) to qualify to the next round. Ukraine only need a win, otherwise they are eliminated. Reminder that Ukraine are playing their home matches in Warsaw, Poland. And this is obviously another hugely important match, where one team will fight to avoid defeat and the other must find a way to win.

There's definitely some cards here, and just like the other match between Hungary and Ireland, I see a +410 on the Red Card and I'm investing 1u on that one as well.

Take 1% on Red Card Awarded (+410 FD), line good to +350

THE PLAY: REGULATION Red Card Awarded (+410)

Hungary vs Ireland
European World Cup Qualifiers, Sunday, 11am ET

Play: Red Card Awarded
Odds at Time of Release: +410 
Line Parameter: Line good to +350

Huge match between Hungary and Ireland, which will shape the group as Portugal are top with 10 points (and hosting Armenia), Hungary are 2nd with 8 points and Ireland are 3rd with 7 points. Portugal will most likely beat Armenia, and if that happens, Hungary can clinch the 2nd spot with a win or a draw. It's Ireland who are going to go all-in here, as only a win would see them overtake Hungary, there is no time for playing tactically and defensively, at some point Ireland will have to attack.

In situations like this, the final match of the group stage between two heavily interested teams that are fighting for a ticket to the World Cup (even the playoffs), we often see cards. I don't want to overcomplicate it, I see a +410 on a Red Card to be shown, I am taking 1u on that.

Take 1% on Red Card Awarded (+410 FD), line good to +350

THE PLAY: REGULATION Atletico Tucuman -0.5 Cards Asian Line (-114)

Lanus vs Atletico Tucuman
Argentina, Friday, 6pm ET

Play: Atletico Tucuman -0.5 Cards Asian Line
Odds at Time of Release: -114
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

Lanus are getting ready for the Copa Sudamericana Final next Saturday vs Atletico MG, but they do have the final match day of the regular season in the Clausura in their domestic league. They will make the playoffs no matter what, but it's Atletico Tucuman who are absolutely dying for a win here in order to have a chance for the playoffs. They are sitting 1 point behind the playoffs, and they are playing the only match on Friday, which means that if they win they will temporarily overtake 4 teams and wait for Saturday's results.

Lanus haven't been very aggressive lately, but Atletico Tucuman have.

Lanus Cards For at home: 2.2/game 
Lanus Cards Against at home: 2.53/game

Atletico Tucuman Cards For on the road: 3.00/game
Atletico Tucuman Cards Against on the road: 2.20/game

These stats tell us that Lanus get fewer cards at home than their opponents, and Atletico Tucuman get more cards on the road than their opponents.

The Asian Spread in Cards is 0.5, which means that getting Atletico Tucuman -0.5 Cards makes perfect sense based on stats. And that also checks out based on the urgency for the two teams, with Lanus being much more comfortable than Atletico Tucuman, and are playing better soccer, so Atletico Tucuman will have reasons to get angry and start kicking.

Atletico Tucuman got more cards than their opponents in 7 of L/10 matches, and in 5 of L/6

Lanus saw their opponents getting the most cards in each of L/4 matches, which coincides with the period where they secured the playoffs and were focusing more on the Copa Sudamericana.

The two teams last met in May 3rd, where Atletico Tucuman won by 1-0 at home and got 6 cards to Lanus' just 1. I think Atletico Tucuman get the most cards here, so we ride.

Take 2% on Atletico Tucuman -0.5 Cards Asian Line (-114 B365), line good to -125