Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Minnesota Lynx -7.5 (-110)

The biggest benefit of being an all-access client is being able to take advantage of the early lines and totals. I gave this out to clients while it was still -5.5 everywhere. Stop waiting, the numbers don't lie…We are killing the WNBA right now, already up 64.6u during the regular season and we haven't even reached the All-Star Break yet! Click here to join me!

Analysis: Minnesota heads out on the road fresh off a long home stand, carrying a dominant 1st-rated defense that has held opponents to just 70.4 points per game over their last five outings. Their offense is equally elite, finding easy paint looks against teams that struggle to protect the rim and drilling open looks from deep, two areas where Phoenix has shown clear vulnerabilities. On the season, Minnesota ranks first in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and their ability to clamp down on the Mercury’s 3-point–heavy attack (they’re 1st in defending above-the-break triples) will force Phoenix into uncomfortable, less efficient shots…especially without Copper and Sabally.

Phoenix’s own defense has slid to 9th in the league over the last five games, surrendering an average of 86.2 points. Even after Alyssa Thomas’s triple-double and Sami Whitcomb’s 36-point outburst in their recent 30-point win, this depleted group is poised for regression against Minnesota’s lockdown unit. With the Lynx more rested and firing on all cylinders, take Minnesota –5.5 for a confident road cover.