Bryan Power

THE PLAY: San Diego Padres -138 Michael King (RHP), Brady Singer (RHP) Must Start

Think this is a good situation to back the Padres after they were swept over the weekend in Tampa Bay. It was certainly uncharacteristic to see the bullpen give up leads in back to back games, especially yesterday with closer Mason Miller, who blew a save opportunity for just the second time 34 appearances this season. That required a fluke game-tying HR in the bottom of the ninth that you have to see to believe.

Conversely, I think Monday is also a good time to fade the Reds. I cashed a 5% MAX BET with them Sunday night, in the F5 with Chase Burns on the mound. But we typically see teams struggle after playing Sunday night, particularly when travel is involved. In this case with the Reds, this will also be their first game back at Great American Ballpark after a 9-game road trip. It sets up as a classic "flat spot" for a team that's been outscored by 108 runs this season (3rd worst differential in MLB).

Anchored by Miller, the Padres have a top 5 bullpen ERA (3.49). Reds' relievers have combined for the sixth HIGHEST ERA (4.72) in all of MLB, which is why yesterday's 5% MAX BET was confined to only the first five innings. So, despite what we've seen unfold each of the L2 days, SD will have the decided edge late in this game. As far as the starting pitching matchup goes, Michael King has delivered four consecutive quality starts for the Padres, including seven shutout innings last time out. Meanwhile, Cincy's Brady Singer has a 4.85 ERA in August. The Padres have been a top five offense (runs scored, wRC+) since the All-Star Break. The Reds have the lowest team batting average at home (.218) in all of baseball this season.

THE PLAY: Eastern Michigan -3.5 (-109)

Both of these teams played in Week 0. Both covered the spread, although only Eastern Michigan won straight up (28-17). Not like anyone expected San Jose State to win as they were up against USC. But it ended up being closer than the oddsmakers thought with the Spartans easily covering as 37.5-point underdogs in a 42-26 loss. It's a much shorter spread for Week 1.

Now EMU is typically a team you want to back as an underdog as 79 of their previous 110 games have either been a SU win or a one-possession loss! But in the season opener against Sacramento State, the Eagles proved they can get the job done as chalk by covering the 9.5-point spread. This is an experienced team and I like the coach (Chris Creighton). Do not be surprised if EMU is a contender for the MAC Title Game this year.

Conversely, I am not that high on San Jose State, despite the "decent" showing against USC. Keep in mind the Spartans trailed 28-0 at halftime and 35-3 after three quarters. There were three late TD drives when the game was out of reach to make things appear more competitive than they actually were. Also, early in the 1H, USC had 1st & goal at the SJSU 7-yard line and ended up turning over on downs. It's a long trip to Ypsilanti for Ken Niumatalolo's crew. Don't like the spot for them, playing the second of B2B road games on a short week. EMU moves to 2-0 SU and covers the short number.