Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Over 5 Cards Asian Line (-110)

Bolivar vs Palestino
Copa Sudamericana, Wednesday, 6pm ET

Play: Over 5 Cards Asian Line
Odds at Time of Release: -110
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

Bolivar were cruising in the first half of the season but something changed back in early June, right after the conclusion of the Copa Libertadores group stage. One of their best players was caught doped up and since then, Bolivar have seen a serious dip in form (maybe they stopped juicing their players? I dunno), with just 2 wins in L/7 (W2 D2 L3), all domestic matches, and there has been a crazy increase in cards. Most notably, there have been 14 (!) red cards in their last 10 matches across all competitions, 7 for Bolivar and 7 for opponents.

Cards in Bolivar's L/10 matches: 6/11/8/6/16/6/5/13/9/9
Bolivar's Cards in L/10 matches: 4/7/5/4/10/3/2/6/2/2

Cards in Bolivar's Copa Libertadores matches: 7*/0/6/1*/5*/5
Bolivar's Cards: 5*/0/3/0*/2*/4
(* are home matches)

These are absolutely crazy numbers and now they are hosting a Palestino side that also had good numbers in the Copa Sudamericana group stage.

Cards in Palestino's Copa Sudamericana matches: 7/6*/2/2*/7/5*/9*
Palestino's Cards: 3/3*/2/2*/2/2*/4*
(* are away matches)

Referee has an average of 6.24 cards/match this season and at least 5 cards in 20 of 25 matches (at least 6 cards in 18 of 25

Last season, average of 5.25 cards/match and at least 5 cards in 28 of 44 matches.

These two met last season in the Copa Libertadores group stage, where Bolivar won by 4-0 on the road and 3-1 at home. The match on the road had 8 cards (1 red) and two penalty kicks, the match in Bolivia had 3 cards and 2 own goals.

There is a very good chance this match is going to be (excuse my language) a poop show, and that -434 on Bolivar ML doesn't reflect the weird circumstances surrounding this team, or the danger of the situation. I see a very good chance of weird things happening in this match, and here's a bunch of ways to bet on it:

Over 5 Cards Asian Line (-110)
Red Card (+310)
Own Goal Scored (+800)
Penalty Kick Awarded (+180)
Bolivar win & Over 3.5 Goals (+126)
Tie or Palestino (+300)
Both Teams to Score (-115)

We are taking 3% on the Over 5 Cards Asian Line (-110), line good to -125, as I think this is the safest way to bet on this match, but feel free to dabble in those other plays as well.