Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Over 4.5 Cards (+112)

Austria vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
European World Cup Qualifiers, Tuesday, 2:45pm ET

Play: Over 4.5 Cards
Odds at Time of Release: +112 FD
Line Parameter: Line good to -120

Austria are top of the group with 18 points and are hosting Bosnia & Herzegovina who are 2nd with 16 points. Austria will capture the top spot with a win or a draw, and Bosnia will only look for a win here otherwise they will settle for the 2nd spot and the playoffs.

The reverse fixture had 7 cards (1 red for Austria) and Bosnia always play very aggressively against teams that are looking for the same thing. In the two matches vs Romania (the other qualification candidate) had 9 and 8 cards respectively. There were 6/6/8 cards in their three away matches in this stage.

Referee is one of the weird ones, he can either give out 7-8 cards or he might choose to speak to the players instead. We've see some weird matches involving this referee, but we will still take a chance with the Over 4.5 Cards here, as the stakes are high and a spot directly to the World Cup is at stake.

Take 2% on the Over 4.5 Cards (+112 FD), line good to -120

THE PLAY: REGULATION 2+ Cards for Each Team (-125)

Wales vs North Macedonia
European World Cup Qualifiers, Tuesday, 2:45pm ET

Play: 2+ Cards for Each Team
Odds at Time of Release: -125 FanDuel
Line Parameter: Line good to -135

Huge match between Wales and North Macedonia here, with the two teams tied at 13 points but it's North Macedonia who are sitting 2nd due to a better goal difference. Belgium are sitting at the top with 15 points but they are playing at home against Liechtenstein, so the top spot is most likely theirs. It's the 2nd spot that is up for grabs, and North Macedonia can keep that spot with a win or a draw, it's Wales who only need a win here. Tension is high, and these two teams can be pretty aggressive.

In the reverse fixture both teams got carded twice, and now these two are in a spot where North Macedonia are playing for two results (win or draw), so the longer this goes without goals, the better it is for them. They will play aggressively trying to keep Wales outside, but Wales will also be aggressive on the defense because conceding a goal would make it extremely hard for them to qualify.

Each team to get carded at least twice is -125 at FanDuel and goes straight into my books.

Take 2% on 2+ Cards for Each Team (-125 at FanDuel), line good to -135

THE PLAY: REGULATION Under 4 Cards Asian Line (-115)

Kosovo vs Switzerland
European World Cup Qualifiers, Tuesday, 2:45pm ET

Play: Under 4 Cards Asian Line
Odds at Time of Release: -115 B365
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

Indifferent match in terms of points in the sense that Switzerland are 3 points ahead of Kosovo, but also with a +12 goal difference (to Kosovo's +1), so even if Switzerland lose to Kosovo on Tuesday, they will not lose the top spot. Unless they lose by 6 goals, which is not happening.

So not a lot of competitiveness here, and also there are several Swiss players that are of Kosovan descent, so this is more friendly that it is hostile, and we got a referee that has an average of 3.55 cards/match this season, so in such cases I like to bet on few cards to be shown.

Take 2% on the Under 4 Cards (-115), line good to -125

THE PLAY: REGULATION Red Card Awarded (+780)

Romania vs San Marino 
European World Cup Qualifiers, Tuesday, 2:45pm ET

Play: Red Card Awarded 
Odds at Time of Release: +780 FD
Line Parameter: Line good to +650

San Marino: Penalty conceded vs Cyprus, Red Card vs Bosnia, Penalty conceded vs Austria, plus an Own Goal and TWO penalty kicks in the reverse fixture vs Romania. One of the teams that are usually the punching bags in every qualifier group, this time around it's no different. This match doesn't mean anything any more, and we are going to take three bets, 2u on the Penalty Kick (+150), 1u on the Red Card (+780) and 1u on the Own Goal (+600).

Take 1% on Red Card Awarded (+780 FD), line good to +650
 

THE PLAY: REGULATION Own Goal Scored (+600)

Romania vs San Marino 
European World Cup Qualifiers, Tuesday, 2:45pm ET

Play: Own Goal Scored
Odds at Time of Release: +600 B365
Line Parameter: Line good to +500

San Marino: Penalty conceded vs Cyprus, Red Card vs Bosnia, Penalty conceded vs Austria, plus an Own Goal and TWO penalty kicks in the reverse fixture vs Romania. One of the teams that are usually the punching bags in every qualifier group, this time around it's no different. This match doesn't mean anything any more, and we are going to take three bets, 2u on the Penalty Kick (+150), 1u on the Red Card (+780) and 1u on the Own Goal (+600).

Take 1% on Own Goal Scored (+600 B365), line good to +500

THE PLAY: REGULATION Penalty Kick Awarded (+150)

Romania vs San Marino 
European World Cup Qualifiers, Tuesday, 2:45pm ET

Play: Penalty Kick Awarded 
Odds at Time of Release: +150 BR
Line Parameter: Line good to -110

San Marino: Penalty conceded vs Cyprus, Red Card vs Bosnia, Penalty conceded vs Austria, plus an Own Goal and TWO penalty kicks in the reverse fixture vs Romania. One of the teams that are usually the punching bags in every qualifier group, this time around it's no different. This match doesn't mean anything any more, and we are going to take three bets, 2u on the Penalty Kick (+150), 1u on the Red Card (+780) and 1u on the Own Goal (+600). 

Take 2% on Penalty Kick Awarded (+150 BR), line good to -110