Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Total Under 2.25 (+100)

Athletic Club vs Arsenal
Champions League, Tuesday, 12:45pm ET

Play: Under 2.25 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: +100
Line Parameter: Line good to -120

Athletic Club +330 underdogs at home, the Draw is at +255 and Arsenal are -110 favourites on the road, with the Asian Spread set at 0.5 and the Asian Total set at 2.25, which is a split line between the 2 and the 2.5 Goals.

Athletic Club being +330 favourites at home, in the boiling cauldron that is the San Mames Stadium in Bilbao is definitely something to consider. But on the other hand, Arsenal's coach Mikel Arteta is a Basque, so he definitely knows how hard it is to play in these venues, so I'm assuming that he will have prepared his team properly. But then again, Arsenal are dealing with some injury issues early in the season, we now just saw Odegaard limping off with an injury in their weekend match vs Nottingham Forest, Bukayo Saka is already injured and unavailable, same goes for Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz, while Saliba and Norgaard, or NARGLE, if you saw those videos, are questionable.

On the other hand, Bilbao, who have a MUCH shallower bench, as they can only sign players of Basque descent, also have some absences as well, mainly Nico Williams who got hurt in the international break, then you got Yerai Alvarez who is banned for using an unregulated substance, which was allegedly a medicine for alopecia as he underwent chemotherapy last year, and three more role players as well, so neither team is at 100% right now.

This strikes me as a tight match with very few goals, as Athletic Club tend to apply a lot of pressure on home ground but if there's one team out there that can absorb that pressure, it's Arsenal, so I think both coaches will excercise caution here, so we could make a case for the Under 2.25 Goals. If there are zero or even 1 goal in the first half, this could land.

For a side bet, again, that +330 on Athletic Club ML looks tasty AF, but my hand cannot fade Arsenal that easily. Maybe Athletic Club +0.5 at -110, that's essentially a double chance on Athletic Club or Draw. On the other hand, I think that -110 on Arsenal ML is a bit unfair, I would expect it to be closer to plus money.

This is a strange match to predict, but I think the Under 2.25 Goals is my best lean for this match. That's a split line between the Under 2 and the Under 2.5 Goals, this bet is a full win if there are zero or 1 goals, it's a half win (and half push) if there are exactly 2 goals, and it's a loss if there are 3 goals or more, which is always a possibility, but in my eyes this could be an extremely tight game. And also I forgot to mention that this is the early kickoff in the Champions League, and we usually see weird stuff happening in those early kickoffs. 

Leaning on the Under 2.25 Goals (+100), line good to -125

THE PLAY: REGULATION Pierre Emile Hojbjerg 2+ Shots (+340)

Real Madrid vs Marseille
Champions League, Tuesday, 3pm ET

Play: Pierre Emile Hojbjerg 2+ Shots
Odds at Time of Release: +340
Line Parameter: Line good to +275

Real Madrid are -280 favourites at home, the Draw is at +475 and Marseille are +680 underdogs on the road, with the Asian Spread set at 1.5 and the Asian Total set at 3.25

Real Madrid haven't exactly been very flashy in their first few matches of the season, but they've been pretty effective with 4 wins in 4 matches, scoring 2+ goals in 3 of 4 and keeping 2 clean sheets, also displaying some great resolve in their matches, coming back from one goal behind to beat Mallorca by 2-1 and also beating Real Sociedad by the same scoreline despite going down a man early in that game. Coach Xabi Alonso is doing a good job so far and Real Madrid have given us very few reasons to doubt them, so I agree with their favouritism in this spot. Not sure if I agree with the 1.5 goal spread, as Marseille have a lot of quality up front and could potentially hurt Real Madrid's defense.

Marseille with a mixed bag of results so far in the season, two BIG wins at home and two losses on the road. At home they beat Lorient by an easy 4-0 over the weekend, in a match where their opponents saw an early red card at just the 10th minute, paving the way for a comfortable win for Marseille. Their other home win, despite coming by 5-2, was against newly promoted Paris FC (not to be confused for PSG). On the other hand they've lost both matches on the road and they haven't even scored a goal yet. The first one really stung too, as they were playing against a 10-man Rennes and were unable to pierce their defense, eventually losing that match with a late goal. And the other loss was a 1-0 to Lyon in which Marseille saw an early red card and were lucky to even lose by such a small margin. I don't know what to make of their two away losses so far, as Marseille were really good on the road last season, they had the 2nd best away record (W10 D1 L6) behind only PSG.

One player that has caught my eye with his performances so far in the season is Marseille's Danish midfielder Pierre Emile Hojbjerg, who's had 2+ shots in ALL 6 matches in the new season, 4 with Marseille and two with his National team. Also hit the target in 4 of 6 matches and last season he had 2+ Shots in 15 of 32 matches.

He is one of those players who are holding midfielders, these players generally have defensive duties, but he has a mean right foot and he is never afraid to shoot from a distance. Plus, he is the designated Free Kick taker, so that means more chances for shots.

Take 1% on Pierre Emile Hojbjerg 2+ Shots (+340 at DraftKings), line good to +275