Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Draw (+500)

Arsenal vs Leverkusen
Champions League, Tuesday, 3pm ET

Play: Draw
Odds at Time of Release: +500
Line Parameter: Line good to +450

I told you last week guys, that +750 on Leverkusen to qualify was too disrespectful. And they almost won outright in the first leg, only to be equalized with a late penalty kick.

Game finished at 1-1, which means that these two start from scratch, as there is no away goals rule. Whoever wins in 90 minutes, progresses. A Draw would send the match to extra time, so let's look at the odds.

Arsenal are -840 to qualify, Leverkusen are now +610 to qualify, and I still like those odds. A lot of you might think I'm mad, but Arsenal have been losing oil as of late. They struggled MIGHTILY to beat Everton by a 2-0 at home over the weekend, scoring both goals past the 89th minute, so this team is not well.

You might see them unbeaten in L/13 in all competitions, and with just 1 loss in L/26, but they are getting marginal wins lately and, at least in my eyes, are cruising for a bruising. They still have 4 competitions to play for, so they will probably get some silverware at the end of the season, I just don't know which one. My estimate, and I also said that last week, is that their main target is the EPL Title.

Reminder that 5 days after this match they have the EFL Cup FINAL against Manchester City, then we have the international break, and right after that they have the FA Cup quarter-final vs Southampton.

A LOT of teams are absolutely gassed right now and are waiting for the international break to catch their breaths, Arsenal being one of them.

Leverkusen are lowkey in pretty solid form at the moment, unbeaten in L/6 (but with 5 Draws in there), and losing just 1 of L/14 in all competitions, a lot of matches going to the Under and this coach has that defensive DNA in him. He was coaching the Danish National Team prior to taking the Leverkusen job, and if their presence in the last EURO was any indication, we should be expecting a tight match here.

You see, Denmark had 3 draws in 3 group stage matches in that Euro, a 1-1 vs Slovenia, a 1-1 vs England and a 0-0 vs Serbia, only to lose to Germany by 2-0 in the round of 16, so all 4 were Unders, and 3 of 4 were Draws. I know it's a totally different setting, but the mindset remains the same. Under 3 Goals (-105) might be an option, but such BIG number on a Draw is definitely worth investing in.

Take 1% on the Draw (+500), line good to +450

NOTE: This bet, and odds, are for REGULATION ONLY.