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THE PLAY: Detroit Lions -5.5 (-104)

Detroit has a strong bounce-back opportunity against an Arizona defense with few answers for what the Lions do best offensively.  Detroit ranks 3rd in offensive power and owns a substantial efficiency advantage through the air: +0.28 EPA per pass versus Arizona’s -0.03.  Jared Goff has been outstanding despite Detroit’s uneven 2-2 start, earning an 85.8 PFF grade while producing a 119.0 passer rating from a clean pocket and a low 0.56% turnover-worthy play rate.  The matchup is especially favorable because Arizona's defense grades poorly across the board, per PFF’s advanced metrics: 56.0 overall, 59.8 in run defense, 49.6 in tackling and just 48.2 in coverage.  Arizona’s coverage grade is particularly concerning against a Detroit passing game that boasts an 86.4 PFF grade and features clear matchup problems at Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta.  Detroit ranks fifth in EPA per dropback and has another favorable environment in Arizona on Sunday.

The underlying numbers from Detroit's 32-26 loss to Carolina are far more encouraging than the final score: Goff completed 32 of 52 passes for 412 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions, while Detroit generated 412 passing yards on 53 dropbacks.  Detroit's receiving usage was equally impressive, with Williams producing 102 yards, LaPorta 84, St. Brown 75, and Isaac TeSlaa 95, giving Goff four legitimate weapons to attack an Arizona secondary that has struggled badly in coverage.  The Lions are now sixth in EPA per dropback (+0.20), and their willingness to lean on the pass should maximize the biggest mismatch in this game.

Arizona quarterback Jacoby Brissett owns a respectable 79.0 PFF grade, but his efficiency collapses under pressure, where his passer rating falls to 38.2.  Brissett also ranks last among 30 qualified quarterbacks at only 5.4 yards per attempt.   Arizona's Week 4 performance reinforces that limitation: Brissett needed 35 attempts to generate only 166 passing yards while throwing three interceptions, and the Cardinals' passing offense ranks 23rd in EPA per dropback (-0.10).  The veteran signal caller now faces a Detroit stop unit ranked second in the league with an 81.6  PFF pass rush grade and first with an 85.2 PFF tackling grade.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database strongly reinforces the case for Detroit, with several high-performing systems converging on the Lions as a short road favorite coming off a loss.  The strongest angles center on Detroit’s bounce-back profile, its recent success under Dan Campbell, and its history of being a profitable road favorite in high-total games.

·        143-74 ATS (65.9%)  - Play On road favorites of -6 or less in Weeks 3-14 with totals of 46+ when their previous game went Over the total.  This powerful system has produced +61.6 units since 1989;

·        94-56 ATS (62.7%) - Road favorites of less than -7 coming off an ATS loss in a game that went Over are 62.7% ATS when the current total is 46 points or more;

·        114-77 ATS (59.7%) - Road teams coming off an upset road loss as favorites of less than six points have covered 59.7% of the time since 2000;

·        15-3 ATS (83.3%) - Detroit has been exceptional at rebounding from losses under Dan Campbell, covering 15 of 18 games following a defeat since November 2022;

·        50-28 ATS (64.1%) - The Lions are 64.1% ATS since 2020 when laying no more than seven points in games with totals of 45 points or more;

·        107-59 ATS (64.5%) - Teams that have gone three consecutive games without committing a turnover are 64.5% ATS against opponents that have committed at least three turnovers over their previous three games;

·        97-69 ATS (58.4%) - Teams coming off a loss after winning 11+ games the previous season are 58.4% ATS against opponents that won fewer than eight games the previous year;

·        50-27 ATS (64.9%) - Play Against home teams that won fewer than six games the previous season when they have allowed more points than expected in consecutive games and are coming off a double-digit loss without reaching both 100 rushing yards and 250 passing yards.

Detroit fits one of the strongest technical profiles on the Week 5 board: a quality team in a bounce-back spot, laying a manageable number on the road in a high-total game.  With a substantial quarterback advantage, a far more explosive passing attack, and an ideal matchup against one of PFF's lowest-graded coverage units, Detroit is positioned to rebound decisively on Sunday.  Lay the points with the Lions as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Sunday, October 11.

THE PLAY: Tulane +3.5 (-115)

Tulane is an attractive road underdog because the matchup is closer than the teams' raw scoring numbers suggest, and the Green Wave have several characteristics that can keep this game inside the number. Army is averaging 33.3 points and 432.8 yards per game, but those numbers have been accumulated against an extremely soft schedule (No. 109 nationally), compared with Tulane’s (No. 31). Army runs on approximately three-quarters of its snaps and generates 0.35 EPA per rush, but the Green Wave have allowed a 37.0% rushing success rate, which ranks 41st nationally. Tulane has been susceptible to explosive runs but has been considerably more effective at preventing opponents from consistently staying ahead of schedule, an important distinction against an Army offense that needs efficient early-down rushing to remain on script.

Tulane's offense has struggled with consistency, but its explosiveness gives it a legitimate counterpunch, ranking No. 1 nationally in both overall offensive explosiveness (1.51) and rushing explosiveness (1.35). That big-play ability becomes especially important against an Army defense that has surrendered 4.7 yards per rush and ranks 115th in PFF's defensive power ratings.

Army’s National Defensive Metrics/Rankings

• 62.8 PFF Defense Grade (129th)

• 63.9 PFF Run Defense Grade (127th)

• 52.0 PFF Tackling Grade (119th)

• 57.8 PFF Coverage Grade (116th)

The Black Knights have also been vulnerable to explosive passing plays, allowing 8.6 yards per opponent pass attempt, so Tulane does not necessarily need to sustain long, methodical drives to generate points. Tulane should have success moving the chains both on the ground and through the air Saturday based on the following advanced metrics: 79.5 PFF Run Grade (63rd), 62.4 PFF Run Blocking Grade (58th), and 75.3 PFF Pass Grade (51st). Tulane has also protected the football exceptionally well, averaging just 0.3 giveaways per game (13th nationally), which is particularly valuable in a possession-limited matchup against Army. Tulane also enters with a substantial rest advantage, which is especially valuable against Army's unique option offense because the extra practice time lets the defense devote more reps to assignment discipline and gap responsibility.

Technician’s Corner:

My technical database provides substantial support for Tulane, with the strongest angles centered on the Green Wave’s rest advantage, bounce-back situation, and Army’s vulnerable favorite profile.

• 199-111 ATS (64.2%) - Play On conference road underdogs of less than +24 coming off an ATS loss when facing an opponent with less rest and the same or better record. This situation has generated +76.9 units since 1989;

• 190-103 ATS (64.8%) - Conference road underdogs of +24 or less coming off an ATS loss are 64.8% ATS against opponents with the same or better winning percentage, less rest and three or more wins the previous season. The system has produced +76.7 units and a 23.8% ROI since 1989;

• 163-103 ATS (61.3%) - Unranked conference road underdogs with 13-16 days of rest are 61.3% ATS against opponents operating on the standard 6-7 days of rest when the total is between 42.5 and 59;

• 364-274 ATS (57.1%) - Small-to-medium rested road underdogs coming off an ATS loss are 57.1% ATS when both teams are unranked;

• 91-59 ATS (60.7%) - Conference road teams coming off an ATS loss with more rest than an opponent coming off a road loss as an underdog are 60.7% ATS since 1989;

• 31-19 ATS (62.0%) - Army has historically struggled when asked to lay a moderate number, with opponents covering 62% of games in which the Black Knights have been favored by -3 to -7 since 1989;

• 65-23 ATS (73.9%) - Play Against favorites coming off consecutive games in which they allowed at least 6.5 yards per rushing attempt. This is the strongest individual fade system in my database for this matchup, producing a 73.9% ATS record, +39.7 units and a 41.0% ROI since 1998.

Tulane lands in an unusually strong cluster of profitable road-underdog systems, with several independent angles producing long-term cover rates above 60%. The Green Wave’s extended rest and bounce-back profile are the recurring themes, while Army’s history as a moderate favorite and the powerful 65-23 ATS fade angle provide additional support. Tulane's run-defense success rate, explosive-play ability, ball security, stronger schedule, and significant rest advantage give the Green Wave multiple ways to stay competitive in a game where Army's clock-draining style naturally reduces possessions and increases the value of every point. Take Tulane plus the points as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, October 10.