Kelly's Sunday NFL 3-Pack including a 4% Best Bet

THE PLAY: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-118)

PLAY: STEELERS -2.5

On paper Indianapolis won by 17 in London…. but they played worse than the final score… The Colts’ first five drives against Washington went fumble, punt, punt, punt, interception. Their two touchdown drives started at the Washington 46 and the Washington 20. Daniel Jones finished 19-of-34 for 143 yards with no touchdowns, and the Colts averaged 3.9 yards per play against a team that committed 10 penalties and finished the game with its third quarterback.

Now they fly home from London and then off to Pittsburgh, against a Steelers team that hasn’t played since Thursday night at Cleveland. Pittsburgh gets 10 days to get ready for this one, and extra time has been good to this franchise. The Steelers have won nine straight games coming off a bye, and Mike McCarthy is 12-6 off a bye as a head coach. Indianapolis hasn’t thrown for more than 211 yards in a game this season, Alec Pierce is on injured reserve and Arden Key will miss time with a hamstring.

Pittsburgh lost in Cleveland but won the first downs and the time of possession, and all three Browns touchdowns came in one second-quarter stretch. Aaron Rodgers has six touchdown passes over his last two games, and Jaylen Warren has run for 220 yards on 34 carries in that stretch. At home the Steelers are 2-0. The last time Jones came to Pittsburgh, he threw three interceptions and the Colts turned it over six times in a 27-20 loss.

THE PLAY: Kansas State -2.5 (-113)

PLAY: K-STATE -2.5

Kansas State has had two weeks to get ready for this one. The Wildcats were off last week after a 31-26 loss at Cincinnati, touchdown favorites. Thei defense got torched, but on the season is allowing just 246 yards and 106 passing yards per game. Avery Johnson has 910 passing yards and another 291 on the ground. If the Wildcats want to win this game they know how to do it (on the ground!!)

Houston is 4-1, but its only road game against a Power 4 opponent was a 28-26 loss at Texas Tech. Conner Weigman has 11 touchdown passes, one interception, but UCF held him without a touchdown pass last week, 18-of-33 for 239 yards.

The last time Houston came to Manhattan, Kansas State won 41-0. This number has sat at 2.5 all week, under the field goal, with the home team coming off a bye… Kansas State -2.5.

THE PLAY: UTSA -7.0 (-117)

PLAY: UTSA -7

How many points is South Florida scoring against it’s fellow FBS teams? Averaging just 18.5 a game… 19 against FIU, 28 at Army, 14 at Bowling Green and just 13 in Saturday’s home loss to Temple.

Michael Van Buren has not thrown a touchdown pass in either of the last two games, and the Bulls had eight penalties for 63 yards against Temple, three of them false starts. Brian Hartline said it himself afterward: “We’re still our worst enemy on gameday.”

Now USF has to turn around on five days’ rest and fly to San Antonio for a Thursday night game. Yes, both teams are on a short week, but only one of them is doing it on the road, coming off a loss at home.

UTSA is 4-1, and the only loss came at Texas. Owen McCown has 1,010 passing yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions, Will Henderson III has 396 rushing yards, and the Roadrunners have turned it over just three times all season. They hung 59 on Colorado State in their last home game, and they have not forgotten last year’s 55-23 beating in Tampa.

This opened 6.5 and has already moved to 7 and is headed for 7.5, hence the free play. Laying it with the home team in the Alamodome against an offense that cannot find the end zone…