Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Detroit Lions -7.5 (-115)

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Game Analysis:

Detroit enters Week 10 off a narrow 27–24 loss to Minnesota, but the numbers tell a more optimistic story. The Lions remain one of the league’s most efficient offenses, ranking top-10 in both EPA/play and success rate with positive values in both the run and pass game. That balance tends to travel, and their offensive rhythm should translate against a Washington defense that’s leaking 26 points per game. The Commanders, meanwhile, were routed 38–14 at Seattle and took major hits across the roster. QB Jayden Daniels dislocated his left elbow and is headed toward IR consideration, forcing Marcus Mariota into the starting role. With that downgrade at quarterback and multiple defensive concerns, Washington enters this matchup in a deflated emotional and personnel state.

From a matchup perspective, Detroit’s statistical edges are clear. The Lions’ offense comes with top tier EPA/play and EPA/dropback numbers, while their defense ranks towards the top of the league in at EPA/play allowed. Washington’s offense, now led by a backup quarterback, carries a flat EPA/play and a negative passing grade, which projects poorly against Detroit’s pass rush and coverage metrics. Even if Lions offensive line is dealing with some injuries, they still grades top-tier per PFF, giving Jared Goff time to work through progressions and support the run game. Washington’s best hope is to shorten possessions through QB runs and RPOs, but with their offensive line banged up and weapons thinned, sustaining drives against a top tier defensive success rate is a steep task.

Situationally, this also sets up as a classic bounce-back spot for Detroit. Road teams off a loss as a favorite facing a team in its second straight home game are 44-18-4 ATS since 2019... and Washington’s quarterback loss fits the historical mold for teams struggling to rally emotionally after losing their QB1 for the season. With a balanced, top-10 offense and elite defense by EPA, Detroit holds structural advantages on both sides of the ball. Play Lions -7.5, I see them winning this one by double digits.