Bryan Power

THE PLAY: Total Over 8.5 (-103) L Garcia (RHP), S Bieber (RHP) Must Start

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This should be a much different series than when the teams last met, which was in Houston, all the way back in April. Those three games, all won by the Astros, saw just 17 total runs scored. 

Here in Toronto, the Over is 80-57-6 this season including 8-1 the L9 games. The Blue Jays offense leads the league in batting average, on base percentage, slugging and wRC+ since the All-Star Break. They also average 5.32 runs per game at home for the season. Hopefully, yesterday's off-day means Bo Bichette (Over 1.5 total bases 11 of L15 games) is back in the lineup. Vlad Guerrero has five straight multi-hit games. The Astros' starter Luis Garcia did give up 2 HRs in his return from the IL last week. 

Houston scores more on the road than they do at home. They'll have to face Shane Bieber early. Bieber has mostly been solid in his three starts with the Jays, but did allow a five-run inning his last time out. Where the Astros are more likely to find offensive success in this game is against the Blue Jays' bullpen, which has the fourth highest ERA (5.38) since the Break.