Dwayne Bryant

THE PLAY: Chicago Cubs -167 Action

2:20 PM ET -- MLB 

907 Pittsburgh Pirates 
908 Chicago Cubs

Play 908 CUBS -167        

List Pitchers: ACTION                          

Bet Size: 2%

Line Parameters: 
2% play at -180 or better

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from Fangraphs.com), historical data involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, the perceived value, and my level of confidence in the play.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLES:

Play ON favorites of at least -110 if their average scoring margin is at least +0.5 and there were 3 or fewer total runs scored in each of their last two games.  Applies to the Cubs.
49-9 (84.5% with a 36.4% ROI) since the 2020 season, winning by an average of 2.8 runs per game!

From April on, play ON home teams with a win percentage better than 54.5% if they scored and allowed 4 or fewer runs in each of their last 3 games and their last game saw 3 or fewer total runs scored.  Applies to the Cubs.
32-8 (80% with a 29% ROI) since the 2020 season, winning by an average of 2.3 runs per game!