Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Total Under 7.5 (-113) J Degrom (RHP), J Flaherty (RHP) Must Start

In this matchup between the Texas Rangers and the Detroit Tigers, the Under 7.5 offers value based on the recent performance of the starting pitchers, offense, and bullpens. Jacob deGrom of the Rangers has been strong to start the season, with an impressive 8.89 K/9 rate and a solid 3.42 ERA. His ability to generate strikeouts and limit hard contact should keep the Tigers' offense in check. 

On the other side, Jack Flaherty of the Tigers has been showing positive regression recently, with an 11.48 K/9 rate and a respectable 3.41 xFIP. While he’s been prone to some inconsistency, Flaherty’s ability to limit hard contact and generate strikeouts will make it tough for the Rangers' offense to put up big numbers. The Rangers' offense has struggled at times, especially against strikeout-heavy pitchers, and this trend could continue against Flaherty.

Additionally, the bullpens provide further support for the Under play. The Rangers' bullpen has been decent, with a 3.99 ERA and a 42.5% GB% over the last 30 days. The Tigers' bullpen, on the other hand, has been exceptional, posting a 1.82 ERA with a 78.7% LOB%, which should help keep the game in check late. With both starting pitchers capable of limiting runs and effective bullpens backing them up, the Under 7.5 appears to be a strong play for this matchup.

THE PLAY: Boston Celtics -5.5 (-110)

The Boston Celtics find themselves in a must-win situation as they travel to Madison Square Garden for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, trailing the New York Knicks 2-0. Despite their struggles in the first two games, including blowing significant leads and shooting poorly from beyond the arc (25% combined from three-point range in both games), the Celtics' overall talent and recent form suggest they can cover the -5.5 spread in this pivotal road game. 

Boston's offensive efficiency has been among the best in the league all season, ranking 2nd in offensive rating. While their shooting has been cold in this series, they have consistently been able to generate quality looks, particularly from their stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who combined for 40 points in Game 2. The Knicks, while playing with great heart and coming back from double-digit deficits, have shown vulnerabilities, especially in their defense. They have conceded 111.8 points per 100 possessions in the postseason and struggle to contain top-tier offenses like the Celtics. The longer this series goes, the more we will see the lack of depth hurt the Knicks squad. With Boston needing a win to stay alive in the series, expect them to tighten up their defense and capitalize on the Knicks’ defensive lapses, making them a strong bet to cover the -5.5.