The Prez

THE PLAY: Total Over 45.5 (-108)

Why Denver–Jacksonville Will Go Over 45.5

I like Over 45 in Denver–Jacksonville because Jacksonville just showed that its offense can score in bunches, while Denver is coming off a game where its defense had major problems containing Kansas City. The Jaguars scored 34 points in Week 1, with Trevor Lawrence throwing four touchdowns, and they averaged 360 yards per game.

The biggest angle for me is Denver's bounce-back situation. The Broncos scored only 10 points against Kansas City, but that offense is unlikely to be held down like that again. Denver's offensive line entered Week 2 ranked No. 1 by PFF, and this is a much different matchup than facing Kansas City's defense.

On the other side, Jacksonville has plenty of firepower. Lawrence was extremely efficient in Week 1, completing 18 of 23 passes for 245 yards and four touchdowns, while Jacksonville got contributions from multiple receivers. That gives the Jaguars several ways to attack Denver.

There's also a strong game-script argument for the Over. Jacksonville is coming off a 34-10 blowout, while Denver is 0-1 after getting blown out by Kansas City. If Denver gets its offense going at home, Jacksonville should be forced to remain aggressive rather than simply protecting a lead. Conversely, if Jacksonville moves the ball early, Denver will have to throw to keep pace.

And the market is already telling us this is expected to be competitive: the total has been sitting around 45–45.5, with Denver favored by only 2.5 points.

My projected score: Denver 27, Jacksonville 24.

That's 51 points, and I'm taking Over 45.5.