Andy Lang

THE PLAY: Sam Burns UNDER 69.5 Round 3 Score

Burns took an 8 on a Par 4 on Thursday, and that looked to be the nail in the coffin for his tournament, but outside that hole, he's played the rest of the tournament -11 including yesterdays round of -6.  He tees off around noon where the winds will be less than 20 MPH for the day, and we only need him to shoot -2 or lower to cash this.  He's looked great outside of one crazy hole, I like the under here.

THE PLAY: Total Under 2.5 (+114)

It’s a Molly McCann fight so I guess we have to take it to not go the distance, right?  Molly’s last 5 fights have ended in the first round, which you would expect from a male heavyweight, not a female strawweight.  I don’t know what to make of Molly these days as she’s hinted she’s about done with fighting, but she is coming off a great win against Belbita with a first round armbar, and she should get the win here as Brasil has a low ceiling, and I think Molly can just bully Brasil around in front of the raucous home crowd.  We're getting a great price on this as Brazil's last 2 fights have gone the distance, but her previous 2 fights ended early.  My guess is Molly gets the finish, but if it gets on the ground, Molly's ground game is pretty bad, and she could easily get submitted.  Either way, I don't see this fight going the distance.

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THE PLAY: Jahmyr Gibbs over 7.5 Rushing TD’s

Gibbs had 10 rushing TD's last year, and he started off his rookie season slow with no rushing TD's, but he finished very strong with 5 rushing TD's in the last 5 games of the season, and he had a rushing TD in all 3 playoff games.  The Lions love rushing the ball into the endzone when they get in close as they had 27 rushing TD's in 2023 and only 30 passing TD's, and in 2022 they rushed for 23 TD's and passed for 29.  David Montgomery will certainly get his fair share of rushing TD's, but there are enough to go around for both guys.