Nick Borrman

THE PLAY: PARLAY Kylian Mbappé AGS + 2+ Shots on Target (-120)

UEFA Champions League

(224209) Borussia Dortmund at (224210) Paris St Germain

I like Mbappe to inflict damage in this match and help his team find a way to move on to the final.  For Mbappe just to score anytime in this match is priced around -165, so clearly oddsmakers expect it to happen, while Mbappe to get 2+ shots on target is priced at -210.  I like both of those scenarios and if we parlay them we can drop the price down to -120, so it’s sort of a sneaky way to buy down the AGS price as he is guaranteed at least one shot on target if he does score, so we just need one more in the match.

Dortmund away from home in Bundesliga play this year sit 5th in the table with 22 xP in 16 matches.  While on the surface all looks OK with just 18 goals conceded, second fewest in the league, they have allowed over 28.8 xGA, which ranks 7th in the Bundesliga, and considering PSG is one of the best at scoring their chances, they have converted 76 goals on 67.0 xG, a +9.0 margin in actual goals vs expected goals, which is the highest in all of the Big 5 Leagues.  Simply put, PSG finish their chances better than any other team in Europe, and Kylian Mbappe is one of the best in the world at doing just that.  Oh, plus, he is their PK taker.

PARLAY KYLIAN MBAPPE ANYTIME GOALSCORER + MBAPPE TO HAVE 2 OR MORE SHOTS ON TARGET

Line Parameter: Parlay good to -140