Las Vegas Cris
(953) Colorado Rockies at (954) Pittsburgh Pirates
Event:
(953) Colorado Rockies at (954) Pittsburgh Pirates
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
May 4, 2024 4PM EDT
Play Rating:
2%
Odds:
-112
Play:
2% – (953) Colorado Rockies at (954) Pittsburgh Pirates Total Over 7.0 (-112) A Gomber (LHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis
2% COL/PIT over 7 (-112) listed/action
Good to -125 or a 7.5 -105
draftkings/betonline
- Our model projects a total of 7.9 (model against a 1 run move is hitting over 60%)
- One thing PIT does well is crush lefties: #10 on the season at 15% above league avg / #5 over L14 at 38% above league average
- COL has a terrible bullpen → near the bottom of the league
- 57% of COL road games go over
- Jones K% continues to drop as the league sees more of him.
- Jones has a very low BABIP; regression imminent
- Jones 22% HR/Fly ball - susceptible to the long ball
COL over in 5 of L7
