Max Verstappen Win Miami Grand Prix -600 v Alejandre Pantoja -192 (v Steve Erceg) Final Price -130

Max Verstappen To Win

This track has 2 long straights which sets up perfect for Red Bull cars.  Verstappen won this race easily last year as he and his teammate finished 20+ seconds ahead of third place, and Verstappen's only trip up this season has been a brake reliability issue which they appear to have fixed.  It would take another reliability issue for Max to not win this race, and his price reflects that.  He should roll in this one.

Alexandre Pantoja -192 v Steve Erceg 

It feels like less than a year ago, I was saying that Erceg had a good skillset and could upset David Dvorak in his UFC debut.  Well, it was actually less than a year ago.  Erceg is 3-0 in the UFC, but let’s be serious here.  He’s beaten Dvorak, Alessandro Costa, and Matt Schnell, and all 3 of these guys are nowhere near Pantoja’s level.  Pantoja’s speed, wrestling and grappling will be way too much for Erceg, and even in the striking I’m not sure Erceg is better.  As long as Pantoja doesn’t underestimate Erceg, he should use his striking to set up the takedown where he will dominate Erceg.  Pantoja has been in Championship 5-round fights, and to be completely honest the main reasons that Erceg is getting this shot is because of the lack of depth in this division and they also needed a Main Event for UFC 301 after using all their options at UFC 300.  It's too much too soon for Erceg as his striking and ground game is not UFC elite.  I’m not overthinking this one, Pantoja is the play.