MLS Saturday Match Predictions, Picks and Odds 4/29/23

Betting Preview for MLS Matches on 4/29

Sportsmemo MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his MLS weekend match predictions and picks around key matches including Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes as well as Vancouver Whitecaps vs Colorado Rapids. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami | Saturday 4/29 | 7:30pm ET

Columbus -165 | Draw +285 | Miami +400
Asian Handicap: Columbus -0.75 | Total: 2.5

Even if you could argue that Miami deserved something out of their match last week at Houston, they still lost to make it six straight matches without a point. Their offense has been completely missing as they have been held scoreless in all but one of those six losses.

Traveling has not been kind to Miami thus far. Four matches. Four losses. Not a single goal scored. Defensively, they haven’t been terrible though, so they have that going for them.

They are allowing just 1.10 xGA away from home but are only generating 0.78 themselves. Traveling to Columbus who allow just 0.78 xGA at home makes me believe that their losing/scoreless road streak will continue.

Besides a strong defense, Columbus has been excellent at home scoring 13 goals in four matches including putting up a six-spot vs Atlanta. They are averaging over 2.0 xG per 90 minutes and rank 5th in xG differential in Columbus.

These teams have only met four times in their history (Miami an expansion side just two seasons ago), but the home team has won all four matches. I like that trend to continue again on Saturday.

Prediction: Columbus Crew -0.75 -125

Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes | Saturday 4/29 | 8:30pm ET

Austin -105 | Draw +250 | San Jose +245
Asian Handicap: Austin -0.5 | Total: 2.75

Austin finished 2nd in the West last year and if you weren’t paying close enough attention, you might have expected them to do the same again this season but the warning signs were there.

They scored 64 goals on just 47.3 xG and that over performance saw them finish on 56 points when their xP (expected points) total was just 42.5. To put that in perspective, 42.5 xP ranked 9th fewest in the league and would have had them finish outside the playoffs.

Regression came late, it took until this season to show itself, but Austin is no longer scoring at that unsustainable pace.

They are averaging just 1.10 xG per 90 minutes which ranks in the bottom 10 of the league and are actually scoring at a lesser rate than that thus far. On the flip side, their 1.53 xGA ranks in the bottom five of the league, so their 2-2-4 record and -6 goal differential are certainly deserving.

The Earthquakes meanwhile have sneakily been putting up good numbers. They are averaging 1.68 xG per match which ranks 5th and have a +0.42 xG differential per 90 minutes which ranks 6th.

They should have scored about three more goals than they have thus far which would have them sitting even higher than 5th in the table where they currently do.

If you look at their road results this season, you might hesitate to want to back them in this spot. But, their schedule has been tough as all four teams they have faced on the road this year have a positive xG differential at home.

One last reminder, Austin has scored just one goal over their last five matches…

Prediction: San Jose Earthquakes +0.5 -125

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Colorado Rapids | Saturday 4/29 | 10:30pm ET

Vancouver -135 | Draw +265 | Colorado +320
Asian Handicap: Vancouver -0.75 | Total: 2.5

The Whitecaps come into this match extra rested after having last weekend off. It was a good break for them after a busy start to the season which included four CCL (CONCACAF Champions League) matches as they made it to the quarterfinals before being ousted by defending MLS Champions, LAFC.

Though they had that busy schedule, Vancouver was playing great even though they weren’t getting the results. They rank 3rd in the league with a +0.68 xG differential per 90 minutes.

Defensively they have been very strong conceding just seven goals which ranks 3rd behind only Nashville and LAFC.

Offensively, they haven’t scored as many goals as they have created quality chances, netting just ten times on over 13.8 xG, but their 1.74 xG average ranks near the top of the league as themselves, LAFC, Seattle and Philly all fall between 1.71 and 1.76. That’s pretty good company.

Rested and with a strong defense, now they face Colorado’s inept offense which has scored just six goals on the season, ahead of only two teams, Kansas City and Montreal.

If Vancouver can continue to create chances like they have this season, I don’t see Colorado being able to keep up.

Prediction: Vancouver Whitecaps Moneyline -135