Aston Villa vs Freiburg Prediction | Europa League Final Preview for May 20

Aston Villa vs Freiburg Preview

With the World Cup heading to North America this summer, GoldSheet will be ramping up its soccer coverage over the next few weeks. WagerTalk handicapper and GoldSheet’s featured writer Bruce Marshall previews Wednesday’s Aston Villa vs Freiburg clash in Istanbul for the Europa League crown.

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Freiburg’s Current Form

Sometimes these unexpected runs in European play continue right thru the finishing tape; refer to last year’s Europa League when Tottenham was struggling in the EPL but kept winning in Europe to make good on Ange Postecoglu’s “I always win something in my second year” boast. (Not enough unfortunately for Ange to keep his job beyond last season, but we digress).

Now we have unfancied Freiburg, sitting in the upper-half of mid-table in the Bundesliga, but from 7th place only in the frame for a Conference League invite next fall…unless it can sustain this unlikely Europa League run thru Wednesday and gain a shock Champions League berth.

Unlikely because Freiburg has won just 11 times in Bundesliga play, though saving some of tis best efforts for the Europa, seeing off Racing Genk, Celta de Vigo, and Braga in the KO phase, rallying from first-leg deficits vs. Genk and Braga.

Also, only games involving Bayern Munich have featured more goals in the Bundesliga that the 126 in Freiburg matches. A frenetic pace featuring eight players who have scored three or more goals in the Bundesliga, led by Croatian striker Igor Matanovic, who tallied three more across the final two Bundesliga matches and three more in Europa play, fuels the attack, while in-demand Swiss 20-year-old Johan Manzambi (keep an eye on him at the World Cup; he’s been named to the Swiss squad) also netted in the second-leg winner vs. Braga.

Aston Villa’s Current Form

This all-action Freiburg attack and playing on the front foot, however, might cause some issues vs. a very capable Aston Villa, already qualified for the Champions League next fall from the EPL but seeking its first major trophy in 30 years at Istanbul on Wednesday night.

Unai Emery’s squad is capable of opening up as the situations dictate, with a collection of lethal scorers, led by Ollie Watkins, who has one more chance to impress Thomas Tuchel and be named to England’s World Cup squad as a center-forward behind Harry Kane. Since being omitted from Tuchel’s last England’s squad in March, Ollie has scored nine goals, including four in his last three games.

Potent frontliner Morgan Rogers and marauding midfielder John McGinn, who has picked up the pace lately and scored a brace in the 4-0 second-leg semifinal wipeout of Nottingham Forest at Villa Park, should also find the pace to their liking.

Finally, there’s Emery, who has won this competition five times in the past while managing Sevilla and Villarreal in Spain.

Aston Villa vs Freiburg Prediction

We suspect the best value in Istanbul is over 2.5 goals, being quoted at +110, which would be our definite first choice.

As we’d be stunned if Villa doesn’t succeed, the win price at -140/145, though not a real bargain, also looks hard to bypass.

The in-form Watkins to score at +137 tempts as well, as might taking a shot with McGinn to net at +300 (we suspect Villa is going to be peppering Freiburg goalie Noah Atubolu).

If looking for another supplemental play at tasty price, perhaps an alternative over 3.5 goals at +280 or thereabouts could be interesting.

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