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Goodyear 400 Predictions, Picks and Betting Favorites May 14

NASCAR driver preps for Geico 500

Goodyear 400 Betting Preview

WagerTalk NASCAR handicapper Andy Lang offers his predictions and betting favorites on the Goodyear 400 with drivers starting their engines at 3:00pm ET from Darlington Raceway in Darlington, SC. Andy discusses the point leaders and breaks down betting angles around head-to-head matchups and top 10 favorites!

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Goodyear 400 NASCAR Betting Notes
When: May 14, 2023 3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT
Where: Darlington Raceway in Darlington, SC
Defending Champ: Joey Logano
Current Favorite: Kyle Larson (+500 at DraftKings)

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Goodyear 400 Betting Analysis

NASCAR travels to arguably the most iconic track on the circuit at Darlington, and this is my favorite track to watch the boys race on.

The track is a strange oval that has wide/ flat turns at one end, and higher/banked turns at the other end. The track is a nightmare for crews to set up for, and an even bigger nightmare to make adjustments during the race.

Most drivers will bounce off the wall at least once coming out of a turn, scraping up the side of the car giving them what is affectionately called…Darlington Stripes.

The key is making sure that damage is cosmetic only. Let’s take a look at the last four races at Darlington, and the top five average finishers.

  1. Joey Logano 
  2. Denny Hamlin 
  3. Tyler Reddick 
  4. Christopher Bell 
  5. Kevin Harvick

Toyota has now won two races in a row and they had four out of the top nine with Ford only having one car in the top 11, and that was Logano in 6th.

I’m certainly not going to fade Logano on this track, but his teammates (Ryan Blaney and Austin Cindric) haven’t been great this year. Blaney has been ok at times, but Cindric has been a disaster.

I took out the restrictor plate race, and the road course and looked at the last eight races and got the top five finishing averages. No driver has an average finish inside the top 9 showing how difficult the beginning of the season has been.

  1. Martin Truex 9.1 
  2. Chase Elliott 9.3 (only raced in three races) 
  3. Christopher Bell 9.6 
  4. Tyler Reddick 9.9 
  5. Denny Hamlin 11.5

Driver to Fade: Chase Elliott

This isn’t saying bet against Elliott, it’s saying stay away from him. He either finishes inside the top 10 or outside the top 30 as he’s done that in the last six races at Darlington. Inconsistency is the last thing we want to wager on so I wouldn’t bet on him or put him in fantasy lineups.

Underdog Worth The Investment: Austin Dillon

His average finish of 13th the last four races here is only one spot behind Kevin Harvick, and he’s finished 9th and 10th in two out of the last four races here. He’s +245 to finish in the top 10, but I think his real value is in DFS or season fantasy leagues.

Best Bet: Joey Logano Top 10 -160

It’s a bit juicy, but it’s worth a play in my opinion. He has a win this year, and even
though he’s been inconsistent, he was good at Kansas last week and has solid finishes at Martinsville and Richmond and with the best average finish at Darlington at 6.5 the last four races, I have to put a bit on him to finish Top 10.

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